The Top Risks of 2026 with Ian Bremmer & Eurasia Group | GZERO Media Live

Featuring Ian Bremmer, Cliff Cupchin, and Gerald Butts discussing the Eurasia Group's Top Risks for 2026. The report frames 2026 as a "tipping point" where the U.S. shifts from being a global shock absorber to a primary generator of political risk.

1. Top Risk: U.S. Political Revolution

The foremost risk is a fundamental transformation of the U.S. political system under President Trump, moving beyond simple norm-breaking into systemic change [36:04].

• The "Rule of Dawn": Unlike 2025's tactical norm-breaking, 2026 is characterized by a "political revolution" aimed at weaponizing the administrative state and removing executive checks and balances [37:14].
• The FDR Comparison: Analysts compare Trump’s ambitions to FDR's expansion of the state, but note a key difference: FDR codified a constrained bureaucracy, while Trump seeks to eliminate constraints on the president personally [39:13].
• Trajectory: Experts believe the revolution will likely fail long-term but will become more disruptive in 2026. Key figures like Steve Bannon and Steven Miller are seen as "doubling down" because they perceive the stakes as existential (avoiding jail) [40:40].