Morgan Stanley: The Oil Market’s Billion-Barrel Problem | 30 Jul 2026 | Thoughts on the Market
1. Executive Briefing (TL;DR)
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Top Key Takeaways:
- Hormuz Chokepoint Paralysis: Following a brief post-MOU clearance of ~150M barrels, flow through the Strait of Hormuz has dropped by 80–90% down to 2–3M bpd due to renewed military actions [00:01:03].
- Product Market Decoupling: Severe tightness in global refining—compounded by Ukrainian drone strikes knocking out ~60% of Russian refining capacity—has shifted market stress to middle distillates, pushing ICE Gasoil to $150–$160/bbl) while Brent crude hovers near $85/bbl [].
References
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