"Control of upstream commodities which ultimately feed into the Chinese industrial machine and destabilizing them... so that everyone suffers that pain and the US relatively suffers less... is a strategy that can work for it." - Michael Every [00:00:09]
"You tend to see shuttle diplomacy most active just before wars start—it's not a sign that a war can be delayed." - Michael Every [00:01:41]
"Provided you can keep copying the best of what your opponent is doing whilst retaining the best of yourself, it's a very fluid process... China up US down or US up China down... it's far more dynamic than that." - []
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"You can go down the ladder and still be relatively better off even if you're not as high up as you previously were." - Michael Every [00:26:09]
"Rather than a global one price plus minus a little bit, you deliberately fragment the market... cheaper commodities for us and our friends and more expensive for others." - Michael Every [00:30:02]
"The very act of picking up a shield if two people have a sword... you are immediately threatening the person who doesn't have a shield even though it's actually defensive." - Michael Every [00:45:01]
"Historically during [re-arming and restructuring], everybody goes off gold. You can't possibly rearm, re-industrialize, restructure yourself... within the straightjacket of a very hard monetary policy." - Michael Every [00:51:39]
Speakers & Credentials
Michael Every: Senior Global Strategist and Executive Director of Financial Markets Research at Rabobank. Renowned international macroeconomist specializing in global trade dynamics, geopolitical strategy, commodity supply chains, and sovereign monetary policy.
Palisades Gold Radio Host: Executive host representing Palisades Gold Corp, focusing on precious metals markets, macroeconomic trends, junior mining, energy security, and natural resource investment.
1. Executive Summary
Core Thesis: Global conflicts in the Middle East and Eastern Europe are not isolated regional disputes, but primary fronts of a structural Cold War between the United States and China over upstream commodity dominance, industrial production capacity, and global trade architecture [00:06:21].
Imminent Conflict Re-escalation: Rabobank's base case predicts an immediate kinetic re-escalation in the Middle East war following the US midterm elections, driven by unbridgeable strategic deadlocks between Washington and Tehran [00:01:11].
Asymmetric Relative Power Strategy: US grand strategy intentionally weaponizes market fragmentation—accepting absolute economic friction domestically to inflict catastrophic relative damage on China’s commodity-dependent manufacturing engine [00:07:07], [00:25:51].
Physical Commodity Realpolitik: The era of global single-price commodity integration has collapsed; dual-track pricing now charges adversary nations up to 2x–100x premiums for physical crude, rare earth elements, and agricultural inputs [00:22:05], [00:30:50].
Macroeconomic Regime Shift: The global economy is entering a prolonged "Higher for Longer" inflation and interest rate environment driven by defense re-arming, supply chain reshoring, and resource nationalization [00:48:38].
Flaws in the Gold Standard Reset Narrative: Historically, nations undergoing massive industrial re-armament and systemic war abandon hard monetary standards in favor of fiat expansion and soft money; gold-backed standard proposals ignore the reality of physical war economics [00:51:39].
2. Chronological Table of Contents
[00:00:50] - The Iran War Restart & Post-Midterm Timeline
[00:05:08] - Geopolitical Drivers & The US-China Upstream Commodity Battle
[00:08:40] - US vs. China Power Dynamics, Technology & Demographic Asymmetries
[00:12:18] - Demographic Windfalls vs. Crises & Mercantilist Brain-Drain Dynamics
[00:23:25] - The Asymmetric Power Doctrine: "Cutting Your Hand to Cut Their Legs"
[00:26:56] - Strait of Hormuz Bottlenecks, Maritime Logistics & The $150 Crude Spread
[00:32:00] - Western Energy & Agricultural Dominance: LNG Contracts and Soybean Control
[00:34:54] - Fertilizers, Potash, and Chemical Supply Chain Disruption
[00:36:24] - Military Campaign Realities & Ground vs. Air Strike Escalation Tactics
[00:39:57] - War Conflation: Multi-Front Spillovers into Central Asia, East Africa & East Asia
[00:44:36] - The Defensive Security Dilemma & Tech Sovereignty Mandates
[00:45:32] - The Dual-Speed World: Capital Controls, Inflation & Higher-for-Longer Rates
[00:50:10] - Gold Standard Fallacies, Sovereign Confiscation Risk & Quasi-MMT Revaluation
3. Detailed Thematic Summary
Theme 1: Geopolitical Escalation & The Post-Midterm Iran War Restart
Imminent Kinetic Re-escalation: Rabobank's core base case projects a major military re-escalation in the Middle East war occurring immediately post-US midterm elections, with a target execution window centered around the weekend after next [00:01:11].
Shuttle Diplomacy Fallacy: High-intensity diplomatic activity across regional capitals is an indicator of impending hostilities rather than a sign of peace [00:01:41].
Unbridgeable Deadlock: Resolution requires either total Iranian capitulation or complete US retreat—a geostrategic defeat that Washington cannot contemplate [00:02:03].
Coalition Probability: Probabilities favor a US-led coalition subduing Iran after prolonged economic blockades, though extreme volatility will persist regardless [00:02:57].
Strategic Incentive Deficit: Tehran avoids short-term temporary agreements ("memorandums of misunderstanding") to prevent strengthening the current US administration politically [00:04:45].
Primary Front of the US-China Cold War: Middle East destabilization directly targets China's industrial engine by disrupting upstream energy flows [00:06:21].
Theme 2: Great Power Asymmetries & The US-China Dynamic
Beyond Simplistic Narratives: Rejection of binary "US Decline vs. China Rise" models; both powers exhibit profound structural advantages and structural flaws [00:09:36].
US Innovation Frontiers: US lead in artificial intelligence, commercial space exploration (SpaceX), and exponential technology clusters maintains massive competitive leverage [00:10:03].
China's Structural Vulnerabilities: Severe demographic contraction, mountain of debt, weak domestic consumption, frozen real estate market, and hundreds of millions in low-wage gig economy jobs [00:10:48].
State-Policy Mirroring: US re-adopts 19th-century industrial policies, while China mirrors historical US mercantilism [00:11:34].
Demographic Traps: Expanding populations (e.g., India) struggle with youth job creation; declining populations face debt crises and unsustainable dependency ratios [00:13:31].
Neo-Mercantilist Brain Drain: Western high-skilled immigration policies represent a zero-sum extraction of human talent from developing source nations [00:15:33].
Multi-Front Alignment: Close military collaboration between Russia, Iran, and North Korea creates a unified adversary axis, while Western responses remain fragmented [00:18:18].
Theme 3: Weaponization of Commodities & Asymmetric Market Fragmentation
Collapse of Service-Economy Delusions: Decades of prioritizing pure service sectors ignored the foundational reality of raw materials, energy, and physical manufacturing [00:21:05].
Rare Earth Extraction Monopolies: Chinese processing dominance causes extreme price spreads (e.g., Yttrium trading 100x+ higher in the West) [00:22:05].
Relative Power Doctrine: Accept self-inflicted economic pain if it inflicts catastrophic relative damage on adversaries [00:25:51].
Strait of Hormuz Security Tax: Military escorts and operational friction add ~$40/barrel in security overhead [00:27:36]. Red Sea destabilization forces shipping around Africa, exhausting global tanker capacity [00:28:09].
Physical Crude Market Bounding: Canadian crude delivered to domestic refineries costs ~$70/bbl, while Middle Eastern crude delivered to Shanghai reaches ~$150/bbl [00:30:19].
Strategic Supply Consolidation: Qatar signing a 30-year US LNG contract underscores Western energy realignments [00:32:32].
Western Agriculture Leverage: The Americas control ~90% of global soybean exports, providing massive trade leverage [00:33:42].
Fertilizer & Chemical Bottlenecks: Middle Eastern energy disruptions freeze byproduct outputs like sulfur and ammonia, driving global fertilizer costs higher [00:35:11].
Theme 4: Military Tactics, Escalation Mechanics & Global Conflation
Air & Missile Campaign Structure: US deployments (10,000 Marines) signal an air and precision-strike campaign rather than a 500,000-troop land invasion [00:36:52].
Internal Iranian Opposition: Western strategy relies heavily on internal pop-up resistance and covert assets, leveraging domestic opposition to the regime [00:37:47].
Infrastructure Red Lines: Campaign targets could expand from airports and tankers to electrical grids and regional desalination infrastructure [00:38:51].
Multi-Theater Conflation Risk: Russia-Ukraine and Middle East struggles form a single macro-conflict, threatening expansion into Central Asia, East Africa, and South Asia [00:41:20].
The Security Dilemma: Defensive posture shifts (e.g., acquiring defensive shields) trigger adversary escalation and accelerate global trade decoupling [00:44:36].
Theme 5: Macroeconomic Regime Shifts & The Flaws in Gold Reset Theories
The Dual-Speed Global Economy: Transition from frictionless global free trade to capital restrictions, trade documentation, and segmented alliances [00:46:04].
Structural "Higher for Longer" Rates: Paralleling the late 19th-century imperial resource scramble; re-industrialization drives persistent inflation [00:48:38].
Flaws in Gold-Backed Reset Models: Systemic military conflicts force nations to abandon hard monetary caps to fund survival [00:50:52].
Physical Survival vs. Store of Value: Real power resides in physical supply chains (water, ammunition, energy) rather than precious metal reserves [00:51:58].
Sovereign Confiscation Risk: Historical precedents (1933 Executive Order 6102) show governments will seize or restrict private gold during existential crises [00:53:41].
Quasi-MMT Revaluation: Official gold revaluations would serve as MMT tools to expand government deficit spending by trillions rather than enforce fiscal restraint [00:54:54].
The Reference Vault
4. Core Frameworks & Mental Models
The Relative Power & Relative Pain Framework: Geopolitical strategy prioritizes relative loss over absolute gains. A nation willingly accepts a 20% domestic economic penalty if the same structural action inflicts a 60% penalty on its adversary [00:00:21], [00:25:51].
The Mercantilist Commodity Fragmentation Model: Deliberately fragmenting global single-price commodity markets into bifurcated pricing pools—charging friend-shoring alliances cheap baseline prices while forcing adversaries to pay exorbitant risk-and-logistics premiums [00:29:54].
The Dual-Speed / Twin-Track Global Economy: The operational shift from an open global system to a divided economic environment characterized by capital controls, tariffs, non-tariff barriers, and sovereign technology mandates [00:46:04].
The Defensive Security Dilemma ("Shield vs. Sword"): In international relations, taking a purely defensive action (e.g., building supply chain resilience or missile shields) is perceived by adversaries as offensive preparation, triggering defensive escalations [00:45:01].
The Late 19th-Century Resource Scramble Parallel: The macro-historical model showing how resource nationalism, boundary conflicts, and supply chain control historically fuel persistent inflation and high nominal interest rates [00:48:38].
The Quasi-MMT Gold Revaluation Fallacy: The framework demonstrating that sovereign gold revaluation during systemic crises acts as a tool for fiat debt expansion rather than a return to monetary discipline [00:54:54].
5. Anecdotes
Venezuelan 3-Day Blitz vs. Prolonged Iranian Blockade: Used to illustrate the speed of military-backed economic interventions. While US actions in Venezuela restructured asset control within 3 days, Iran represents a prolonged, multi-year economic blockade [00:07:36], [00:23:54].
The Arm-Slicing vs. Leg-Severing Neighbor Metaphor: A morbid realpolitik hypothetical illustrating relative power. If cutting off your own left arm allows you to sever both legs of a mortal adversary, realpolitik dictates accepting self-harm to secure victory [00:25:40].
Qatar’s Unexpected 30-Year US LNG Supply Contract: Cited as evidence of long-term global energy realignment, as one of the world's largest natural gas exporters secured long-term US LNG imports [00:32:32].
Pre-1971 Bretton Woods Financial Rigidity: Contrast between modern algorithmic foreign exchange trading (milliseconds) and the Bretton Woods era, where currency pegs shifted once a decade [00:47:01].
The 1933 Executive Order 6102 Precedent: Used to warn precious metal bulls about sovereign risk: during severe monetary crises, governments historically outlaw private gold ownership and mandate confiscation under penalty of imprisonment [00:53:41].
6. References & Recommendations
People
Michael Every: Executive Director & Senior Global Strategist at Rabobank [00:00:30].
Donald Trump: Former US President, cited regarding Middle East posture and energy refining policy [00:06:13], [00:24:46].
Judy Shelton: Free-market economist and gold-backed bond advocate (referenced by host as Judy Sheldon) [00:50:18].
Karl Marx: 19th-century political theorist, referenced for his quote "all that is solid melts into air" [00:55:27].
Companies & Financial Entities
Rabobank: Multinational banking and financial services institution [00:00:30].
Palisades Gold Corp / Made in America Gold Corp: Resource investment vehicle holding 700+ sq km claim package along Nevada's Battle Mountain-Eureka trend [00:08:27], [00:19:45].
New Found Gold: Exploration-stage gold company held within the Palisades investment portfolio [00:08:42].
SpaceX: Private aerospace manufacturer, cited as an example of US technological leadership [00:10:14].
QatarEnergy (Qatar): State-owned petroleum company securing US LNG supply contracts [00:32:32].
BRICS Coalition: Alliance of major emerging economies (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) [00:17:11].
The Islamic Revolutionary Government of Iran: Middle Eastern military and political authority [00:05:52].
Houthi Movement: Yemeni political and military organization operating in the Red Sea [00:18:04].
European Union: Supranational economic and political union [00:33:34].
Belarus: Eastern European sovereign nation cited regarding US potash trade agreements [00:35:35].
Horn of Africa & Regional Entities: Ethiopia, Eritrea, Egypt, Sudan, South Sudan, Libya, Somalia, Somaliland, Puntland, and Azerbaijan cited as escalation vectors [00:41:28].
Historical Events & Epochs
The Bretton Woods System (1944–1971): Global monetary management system based on gold-convertible US dollars [00:47:07].
Late 19th Century Mercantilist Scramble: Imperial period characterized by resource nationalism and boundary disputes [00:48:32].
1933 US Executive Order 6102: Presidential order confiscating private gold holdings [00:53:41].
2003 Second Iraq War: US land invasion of Iraq involving 500,000 troops [00:37:16].
Physical Bottlenecks & Strategic Locations
Strait of Hormuz: Maritime bottleneck for Persian Gulf oil exports [00:27:11].
Bab-el-Mandeb & Red Sea: Marine chokepoints connecting the Indian Ocean to the Mediterranean [00:27:55].
The US propaganda campaign to raise money for World War One | 7 Oct 2026 | The Story of Money | Financial Times
"the Liberty Loan program was basically the genesis moment for the mightiest biggest baddest financial market on the planet The US Treasury market" Robin Wigglesworth 00:00:00 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GUeTwjiGEZI&t=00m00s "it might b…
~$150 / barrel
Effective delivered price of crude shipped around Africa to China