Brexit, Burnham and Britain's Next Decade | 30 Jun 2026 | Barclays Brief

1. Executive Briefing (TL;DR)

• The Core Thesis: Ten years post-Brexit, the UK economy suffers from a structural shortfall in GDP and investment, forcing a debate on its future economic model. Greater regional devolution, fiscal re-accounting, and structural treasury modifications are being proposed to spark long-term growth while adhering to highly restrictive fiscal rules.
• Top Key Takeaways:
  • Brexit's Structural Cost: The UK economy is estimated to be 6% to 8% smaller in terms of GDP, and investment is 10% to 15% lower than it would have been without Brexit [00:00:50].