The old economy begins to take its revenge | Jeff Currie | Carlyle

Jeff Currie, formerly the head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs and now at Carlyle, provides a macro-thematic framework explaining why we have entered a new "physical capex super-cycle" where the "Old Economy" (commodities, manufacturing, and infrastructure) is reasserting its dominance over the "New Economy" (asset-light tech and financial services).

---

1. The Central Thesis: The Physical Capex Super-Cycle

Currie argues that the global economy has entered a decade-long cycle driven by physical capacity constraints. For the past decade, capital flowed primarily into "asset-light" sectors (the FAANG/Mag Seven era), leading to chronic underinvestment in the physical world. Now, demand has finally caught up to supply, forcing a massive redirection of capital back into "old economy" sectors to expand production capacity.

---