NNuggets
BookmarksCollections
  • About Us
  • Terms of use
  • Privacy policy
  • Disclaimer
  • Copyright & Takedown Policy
  • Community Guidelines
  • Cookie Policy
  • Contact

© 2026 Nuggets

NuggetsMarket PulseCollections

On this page

1. The Central Thesis: The Physical Capex Super-Cycle

  • 1. The Central Thesis: The Physical Capex Super-Cycle
  • 2. The "Revenge" of the Old Economy
  • 3. The Shift from Financial to Physical Capital
  • 4. "Weaponization of the Periodic Table"
  • 5. Key Takeaways for Investors

On this page

  • 1. The Central Thesis: The Physical Capex Super-Cycle
  • 2. The "Revenge" of the Old Economy
  • 3. The Shift from Financial to Physical Capital
  • 4. "Weaponization of the Periodic Table"
  • 5. Key Takeaways for Investors
Carlyle/February 25, 2026/2 min read/carlyle.com

The old economy begins to take its revenge | Jeff Currie | Carlyle

Source

Jeff Currie, formerly the head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs and now at Carlyle, provides a macro-thematic framework explaining why we have entered a new "physical capex super-cycle" where the "Old Economy" (commodities, manufacturing, and infrastructure) is reasserting its dominance over the "New Economy" (asset-light tech and financial services).


1. The Central Thesis: The Physical Capex Super-Cycle

Currie argues that the global economy has entered a decade-long cycle driven by physical capacity constraints. For the past decade, capital flowed primarily into "asset-light" sectors (the FAANG/Mag Seven era), leading to chronic underinvestment in the physical world. Now, demand has finally caught up to supply, forcing a massive redirection of capital back into "old economy" sectors to expand production capacity.


References

  1. Original source (carlyle.com)

Disclaimer: Orignal content owned by or sourced from third parties. It does not represent the views of 'Nuggets' platform or it's team. AI is used extensively across this platform including for summaries. Accuracy is not guaranteed, there can be mistakes. Any info or content on this platform is not a financial, legal, or investment advice. Do your own research. Refer for complete disclosures:- Terms of Use · Full Disclaimer

Related nuggets

Jun 2, 2026

AI Is Escaping the Screen | 01 Jun 2026 | Coatue

Coatue : AI is entering a new phase: moving beyond digital tools and into fully autonomous systems operating in the physical world. From advanced manufacturing and surgical robotics to robots in the home, the next wave of innovation will b…

Jun 1, 2026

Brendan Greeley on the 500 Year History of the Dollar | 1 Jun 2026 | Macro Musings

"Alexander Hamilton called it the ancient dollar it was already an established uh uh unit of measure it was already an established currency well before the United States" Brendan Greeley 00:06:55 https://youtu.be/QiX7KmApTtI?si=cdzwMESLY6t…

Jun 1, 2026

Peter Schiff vs Jim Rickards: Monetary Endgame Debate | 10 May 2026 | GoldRepublic Global

Note: Recorded December 7, 2025 at GoldRepublic's headquarters as part of our 15 year anniversary series "The Future of Gold." "Blockchain doesn't replace gold. It actually improves gold. It makes gold more useful as money than it was in t…

Jun 1, 2026

Actions

Reading

Published
February 25, 2026
Read time
2 min read
Progress0%
2. The "Revenge" of the Old Economy

The "revenge" occurs as the lack of physical investment creates bottlenecks that drive up the prices of raw materials and energy. Currie draws historical parallels to previous physical cycles:

  • 1968–1980: Driven by social spending and the Vietnam War.
  • 2002–2014: Driven by the rapid urbanization of China.
  • Today: Driven by the "Three Ds"—Decarbonization, Deglobalization, and Defense spending.

3. The Shift from Financial to Physical Capital

Currie highlights a critical shift in the cost of capital:

  • The Asset-Light Era: When interest rates were low, investors focused on "duration" and long-term growth (tech).
  • The Physical Era: As the economy grinds against physical limits, the need for physical capital leads to higher inflation and interest rates. This higher cost of capital isn't just a hurdle; it reflects the superior returns now available in the physical economy compared to the financial one. Capital is "taking its revenge" by demanding higher yields to fund the build-out of mines, grids, and factories.

4. "Weaponization of the Periodic Table"

A key theme in the article is the geopolitical dimension of commodities. Currie notes that we are seeing the "weaponization" of the periodic table, where access to critical minerals (lithium, copper, rare earths) has become a tool of national security and "power politics." This mercantilist shift necessitates even more capex as nations race for energy self-sufficiency and secure supply chains.


5. Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Commodities as a Strategic Asset: We are no longer in a world of abundance but one of scarcity. Commodity markets will likely remain tight as the "Old Economy" struggles to catch up.
  • Inflationary Pressures: Because expanding physical capacity takes years (or decades), the inflationary pressure from underinvestment will be persistent, not transitory.
  • Investment Opportunity: The "super-cycle" suggests that the most attractive returns over the next decade will move away from software and apps toward the "heavy" industries that provide the backbone of the global energy transition and infrastructure.

Analyst’s Bottom Line: Currie’s view suggests that the "easy money" made in tech is over. The next decade belongs to those who own and build the physical world—miners, energy producers, and industrial manufacturers. The "Old Economy" is no longer the boring laggard; it is the driver of the next global growth phase.

The Impact of AI on the Economy and Markets | May 28, 2026 | Torsten Slok's The Daily Spark | Apollo Global

Apollo: The chart book available here https://www.apollo.com/content/dam/apolloaem/pdf/daily spark/2026/may/28/OddLots ImpactOfAI v2.pdf looks at the impact of AI on the economy and financial markets.