US Midyear Outlook: Geopolitical Shocks, the New Fed Era, and Growth | 21 Jul 2026 | Exchanges

Note: Recorded on July 20, 2026.

1. Executive Briefing (TL;DR)

• Top Key Takeaways:

  • Labor Market Resilience Overpowers Oil Shocks: Despite Middle East conflict and rising oil prices, US job growth abruptly accelerated over the past 4 months, moving above the ~50k–60k/month breakeven threshold required in a low-immigration environment [00:01:08].
  • Inflation Trajectory Shift to Sideways Range: Due to lingering oil/gasoline price spillover and AI demand mismeasurement in PCE data, inflation is expected to trend near 3% rather than declining rapidly to 2% [].