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On this page

Speakers & Credentials

  • Speakers & Credentials
  • 1. Executive Summary
  • 2. Chronological Table of Contents
  • 3. Detailed Thematic Summary
  • The Reference Vault
  • 4. Data & Figures
  • 5. Core Frameworks & Mental Models
  • 6. Anecdotes
  • 7. References & Recommendations
  • 8. Actionable Next Steps

On this page

  • Speakers & Credentials
  • 1. Executive Summary
  • 2. Chronological Table of Contents
  • 3. Detailed Thematic Summary
  • The Reference Vault
  • 4. Data & Figures
  • 5. Core Frameworks & Mental Models
  • 6. Anecdotes
  • 7. References & Recommendations
  • 8. Actionable Next Steps
Markets/March 22, 2026/13 min read/youtu.be

Conversation with Michael Howell of CrossBorder Capital : The Macro Dirt Podcast

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"What are financial markets there for? They're there to roll over our huge debt piles. Something like 80% of all primary transactions in capital markets today are debt refinancing transactions." - Michael Howell [00:08:23]

"The reason that liquidity is going down is plain and simple because the real economy is taking more... all money that's anywhere must be somewhere. If it's not in financial markets, it's in the real economy." - Michael Howell [00:10:38]

References

  1. Original source (youtu.be)

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Published
March 22, 2026
Read time
13 min read
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"The center of gravity of the world gold market has clearly shifted from COMEX and London to Shanghai." - Michael Howell [00:11:53]

"I think the gold price is supported by China because they've got to get out of debt and they've got to debase internally the renminbi yuan currency... that means the gold price remains elevated in my view." - Michael Howell [00:15:49]

"You could actually argue that the administration doesn't need the Fed anymore, does it? Because they're funding themselves through the bill market and they're going to get so much money coming in [via stablecoins] that what does it matter if Fed funds changes or not?" - Michael Howell [00:26:04]

"I think what you're getting is a polarization of the world financial system into two bifurcated points: one being a Chinese system that's backed by gold, and the other is a US system that's backed by stablecoin." - Michael Howell [00:29:22]


Speakers & Credentials

  • Tony Greer: Host of the Macro Dirt Podcast, macro market analyst, and founder of TG Macro.
  • Jared Dillian: Co-host, professional trader, author of Global Investing and The Daily Dirtnap.
  • Michael Howell: Rockstar CEO of Crossborder Capital, published author of Capital Wars, globally renowned as the "Godfather of Global Liquidity." He served as Research Director for Global Strategy at Salomon Brothers in London from the mid-1980s to 1992.

1. Executive Summary

  • The macroeconomic landscape in March 2026 is undergoing a generational regime shift defined by shrinking Western financial liquidity, exploding structural inflation, and bifurcating global monetary architectures.
  • Global liquidity momentum definitively peaked in Q3 of the previous year, primarily because the real economy (CapEx, higher prices, working capital) is draining liquidity out of the financial sector.
  • Commodity prices are fundamentally mispriced relative to gold (currently at $5,000/oz), suggesting crude oil must aggressively reprice upward to meet historical 20x mean-reverting ratios.
  • Geopolitically, China is furiously injecting liquidity and hoarding physical gold to facilitate an internal currency debasement and debt workout.
  • In direct counter-maneuvering, the incoming US Treasury and administration are architecting a shadow funding mechanism using digital stablecoins to offshore US debt financing, effectively marginalizing the Federal Reserve and establishing a US Dollar-stablecoin hegemony against China's gold-backed system.

2. Chronological Table of Contents

  • [00:00:00] Introductions & The Salomon Brothers Era
  • [00:04:50] The Founding of Crossborder Capital & Tracking Money Flow
  • [00:07:05] Deconstructing the Global Liquidity Index
  • [00:13:46] The Gold/Oil Ratio, Inflation, & The Commodity Supercycle
  • [00:16:56] Portfolio Construction: Generational Regime Change
  • [00:20:00] Bond Market Wonkishness & The Flattening Yield Curve
  • [00:24:49] Stablecoins: The Secret Weapon of the US Treasury
  • [00:30:23] 1988 Pop Culture Memory Lane (Music & Movies)
  • [00:34:04] Crossborder Capital Services & Final Plugs

3. Detailed Thematic Summary

Early Days: Salomon Brothers & Crossborder Capital [00:02:03]

  • Michael Howell's background traces to the "Liar's Poker era" of Salomon Brothers in London, heavily influenced by Henry Kaufman's Flow of Funds research, where the primary focus was fixed income [00:03:13].
  • At the time, international markets were extremely nascent. As referenced by Jared Dillian via a 1990 book called Global Investing, the Japanese stock market made up an incredible 60% to 70% of total global market capitalization [00:04:03].
  • Howell left Salomon to focus on Emerging Markets, founding Crossborder Capital in 1996 with just 6 people, eventually peaking at 25 people [00:06:14].
  • His very first client was legendary Morgan Stanley strategist Barton Biggs, author of Hedgehogging [00:05:37]. The firm recently pivoted away from money management in the fall of last year to focus purely on research [00:06:23].

The Evolution of Capital Markets & Liquidity Mechanics [00:07:05]

  • The archaic textbook definition of capital markets—that they exist to raise capital for new investment projects—is completely obsolete [00:07:49].
  • Today, capital markets function almost exclusively as debt-refinancing engines. 80% of all primary transactions in capital markets are debt refinancing transactions [00:08:23].
  • Furthermore, relying on World Bank metrics, 80% of all global lending is collateral-based [00:12:27]. Therefore, if liquidity dries up, the system immediately faces a refinancing crisis.
  • An example of this fragility occurred late last year when the Federal Reserve pulled $200 billion from the money markets as the Treasury General Account (TGA) rose, immediately causing massive spikes in the repo markets and forcing emergency back-door QE [00:08:52].
  • According to the Global Liquidity Index, the momentum of liquidity definitively peaked globally in Q3 of last year [00:09:33].
  • This drain is not caused by Central Bank tightening, but by the private sector conduit. The real economy—via higher CapEx for AI, working capital demands, and elevated PPI/inflation—is siphoning liquidity directly out of financial asset markets [00:10:08].

The Bifurcation of US vs. Chinese Liquidity [00:11:04]

  • There is a massive, structural anomaly currently playing out: US liquidity is dropping rapidly, while Chinese liquidity is surging aggressively [00:11:10].
  • China's domestic economy is struggling under a catastrophic debt burden. To escape this, the PBOC (People's Bank of China) is injecting heavy liquidity and engineering a massive internal debasement of the Renminbi/Yuan [00:15:49].
  • This Chinese strategy is the sole catalyst catapulting gold to $5,000 per ounce [00:15:07]. The physical and pricing center of gravity for gold has officially relocated from London and COMEX directly to Shanghai [00:11:53].

The Mean-Reverting Gold/Oil Ratio & The Inflation Supercycle [00:13:46]

  • The long-term historical mean for the Gold/Oil ratio is exactly 20x (1 ounce of gold buys 20 barrels of oil). Historically, it ranges tightly between 10x and 30x [00:14:10].
  • The ratio currently sits at an extreme 55x, having peaked as high as 70x at the end of February [00:14:47].
  • Because China's structural debt needs will maintain the $5,000 gold floor, the ratio must adjust via crude oil catching up. Reverting to the 20x average mathematically implies an oil price of $250 per barrel [00:15:07].
  • This incoming energy shock will rapidly transmit through fertilizer, transportation, food products, and base metals, guaranteeing structural inflation for years to come [00:16:30].

Regime Change: The Great Rotation to Real Assets [00:16:56]

  • The deflationary paradigm engineered by China and Silicon Valley over the last 20 years is permanently over [00:18:42]. Governments have reached the mathematical limit of the Laffer Curve and can no longer raise taxes; they must monetize their deficits [00:18:04].
  • The market is already signaling this regime change. Software and Technology sectors are down 20% year-to-date and flirting with a nasty bear market, while Natural Resources, Uranium, and Oil & Gas (XLE) are violently leading to the upside [00:17:24].

Bond Market Warning Signs & The Bid for Safety [00:20:00]

  • The US 2-Year Treasury note is trading firmly above SOFR rates, an absolute confirmation that US domestic liquidity conditions are rapidly tightening [00:20:06].
  • Concurrently, the "Term Premium" (the risk premium for holding long-dated government debt) is bizarrely falling while the front-end sells off [00:20:38].
  • This dynamic caused the US 2s10s yield curve to aggressively flatten from 70 basis points to 50 basis points over the last two weeks [00:21:00].
  • A flattening yield curve signifies a systemic monetary tightening and extreme "risk-off" posturing. Portfolios must dump highly leveraged Financials and Tech, pivoting heavily into mid-duration government debt, consumer staples, utilities, and Gold/Oil [00:22:12].

Stablecoins & The US Treasury's Secret Geopolitical Weapon [00:24:49]

  • With incoming policymakers like Kevin Warsh and Scott Bessent at the Treasury, the US is actively attempting to "reshape the international monetary system" via the aggressive promotion of US Dollar-backed Stablecoins [00:27:08]. Brent Johnson famously covered this exact dynamic at Tony's conference [00:26:35].
  • China recognized this existential threat four weeks ago, issuing Notice 42 to double down on internal crypto bans, erecting a digital "Great Wall" against US Stablecoin encroachment [00:25:24].
  • By pushing global stablecoin adoption in emerging markets (Africa, Turkey, Latin America), the US Treasury creates infinite, unregulated offshore demand for US Treasury Bills, effectively side-stepping traditional banking regulations [00:26:19].
  • This maneuver leads to massive "re-dollarization" and implies the US Executive branch no longer requires the Federal Reserve to fund its deficits—creating a permanent, bifurcated world: A Gold-backed East vs. a Stablecoin-backed West [00:26:04].

Late 1980s Culture & The Solomon Brothers Nostalgia [00:30:23]

  • Taking a break from market gravity, the hosts reflect on 1988. Michael Howell was working in research for Salomon Brothers in London [00:30:28]. Tony Greer was a sophomore at Cornell University [00:30:37].
  • They discussed the dominance of Billboard Top 100 music like George Michael's Faith, INXS's Kick, Rick Astley's Never Gonna Give You Up (leading to an attempted "Rick Rolling" on the pod), and Guns N' Roses' Appetite for Destruction [00:31:00].
  • Blockbuster films of the year included Die Hard, Rain Man, Big, Bull Durham, A Fish Called Wanda, and Tony's absolute favorite, Midnight Run (starring Robert De Niro and Charles Grodin) [00:32:15]. They also highly recommended John Cleese's TV series, Fawlty Towers [00:33:10].

The Reference Vault

4. Data & Figures

Data PointValueContextTimestamp
Japan's 1990 Market Cap60-70%The percentage of total global market capitalization held by Japan in 1990, demonstrating early international market dynamics.[00:04:03]
Crossborder Capital Headcount6 to 25The firm started with 6 employees and peaked at 25 before halting money management to focus on research.[00:06:14]
Primary Market Transactions80%The percentage of all capital market transactions dedicated to debt refinancing.[00:08:23]
Federal Reserve Repo Drain$200 BillionThe amount the Fed extracted from money markets last year due to the rising TGA, causing severe repo spikes.[00:08:52]

5. Core Frameworks & Mental Models

  1. Flow of Funds Analysis: [00:03:13] Originating from Henry Kaufman at Salomon Brothers, this macro framework focuses strictly on watching money movement (liquidity) through fixed-income markets to predict where all other risk assets will go.
  2. The Debt-Refinancing Theory of Capital Markets: [00:07:49] The mental model that modern financial markets no longer exist to raise capital for productive enterprise or CapEx. Instead, they are massive debt-refinancing mechanisms requiring constant liquidity flow just to roll over principal. A drop in liquidity immediately triggers a systemic refinancing crisis.
  3. The Gold/Oil Mean Reversion Ratio: [00:14:10] A deeply historical valuation framework demonstrating that an ounce of gold purchases roughly 20 barrels of oil. When this ratio stretches past 30 (currently at 55), mean reversion virtually guarantees a violent upward explosion in energy prices to close the gap.
  4. Bifurcated Global Monetary Architecture: [00:29:22] A geopolitical framework projecting the division of the world into two closed loops: The East (China) securing its monetary base with physical gold manipulation, and the West (USA) securitizing its immense Treasury deficits via the proliferation of offshore, digital Stablecoins.

6. Anecdotes

  • The Salomon Brothers Passport: [00:02:46] Highlighting how nascent global trading was in the mid-1980s, Howell recounted the Head of NY Sales being abruptly transferred to London. Rushing to JFK airport with his suitcase, the airline attendant asked for his passport. The executive replied, "My what?", completely unaware he needed international documentation to leave the country.
  • Crossborder Capital's First Client: [00:05:37] Upon founding his independent firm in 1996, Howell's very first client was legendary Morgan Stanley strategist Barton Biggs, who foresaw the importance of tracking global money flows into emerging markets.
  • 1988 Fraternity Pig Roast: [00:31:38] Tony Greer vividly recalled his sophomore year at Cornell in 1988. They threw a speaker into the backyard, blasted Guns N' Roses' Appetite for Destruction, set up kegs in every corner of the yard for a pig roast, noting he had "never felt more free in my entire life."
  • Getting Rick Rolled & Midnight Run: [00:31:00] Tony attempted to play Rick Astley to "Rick Roll" his guests on the podcast, failing slightly due to audio issues. Shortly after, Tony explained how he saw Midnight Run three times in theaters in college and recently showed it to his 19-year-old son, proving it still stands the test of time.

7. References & Recommendations

  • Books: * Capital Wars by Michael Howell.
    • Global Investing (1990 text detailing Japan's 70% market cap dominance).
    • Hedgehogging by Barton Biggs.
  • Policies / Geopolitics: China's Notice 42 (Aggressive clampdown/ban on domestic digital crypto interactions).
  • People: Henry Kaufman (Salomon Bros), Barton Biggs, Kevin Warsh, Scott Bessent, Brent Johnson.
  • Tools & Platforms: Global Liquidity Index (glindexes.com), Crossborder Capital Substack (Capital Wars).
  • 1988 Media: Midnight Run, A Fish Called Wanda, Fawlty Towers (TV Show), Bull Durham, Faith (George Michael), Kick (INXS).

8. Actionable Next Steps

  1. Restructure For Flattening Curves: Liquidate exposure to Financials and high-duration Tech. Reallocate aggressively toward mid-duration sovereign government debt, consumer staples, and defensive utilities as the yield curve continues to tighten liquidity.
  2. Exploit the Gold/Oil Divergence: Accumulate heavy long positions in WTI Crude, energy infrastructure, and natural resource equities (XLE). The math demands energy prices surge to close the historic 55x gap with $5,000/oz gold.
  3. Front-Run the Stablecoin Treasury Pipeline: Strategic macro portfolios must monitor US legislation allowing Treasury bonds to directly back offshore digital stablecoins. This will act as a synthetic, shadow QE, reinforcing a structurally strong US Dollar and bleeding capital from non-aligned emerging market currencies.

Full Episode: The AI Industrial Revolution | 2 Jun 2026 | Naval and Nivi

Context: Host Naval Ravikant introduces a roundtable discussion on the "AI Industrial Revolution" with three frontier deep tech and software founders who build their own physical factories and tech infrastructure from first principles rath…

Liquidity Peak TimingQ3 Last YearThe definitive peak in global liquidity momentum before turning over.[00:09:33]
Global Lending Structure80%The percentage of all global lending that is strictly collateral-based (World Bank data).[00:12:27]
Historical Gold/Oil Mean20xThe 60-year historical mean reverting ratio of Gold to Crude Oil.[00:14:10]
Current Gold Price$5,000 / ozThe baseline price of gold supported by massive Chinese PBOC and resident purchasing.[00:14:44]
Current Gold/Oil Ratio55xThe current extremely dislocated ratio (peaked at 70x at the end of February).[00:14:47]
Projected WTI Oil Price$250 / bblThe mathematical price crude oil must achieve to mean-revert to 20x against $5,000 gold.[00:15:07]
Tech Sector Decline-20% YTDThe performance of the technology sector year-to-date signaling regime change.[00:17:24]
2s10s Yield Curve70 bps to 50 bpsThe recent violent flattening of the yield curve confirming tightening and risk-off behavior.[00:21:00]