Rory Johnston on Why His $200 Oil Prediction Didn't Turn Out Right | 26 Jun 2026 | Odd Lots

1. Executive Briefing (TL;DR)

• The Core Thesis: Despite the historic shut-in of roughly 13 million barrels per day of Gulf oil production due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, global crude prices failed to reach doomsday predictions of $150–$200/bbl, peaking instead near $120/bbl. This extreme resilience was primarily driven by an unprecedented, silent 5 million barrel per day import contraction from China alongside aggressive global inventory drawing, transforming a systemic supply crisis into a massive inventory reallocation.
• Top Key Takeaways:
  • Historic Supply Interruption: The closure of the Strait of Hormuz forcibly shut in ~13 million barrels per day of non-Iranian Gulf production, representing a catastrophic 13+% shock to global supply [03:37].