AI Infrastructure to Enterprise Execution: The Next Phase of Value Creation | Vista 2026 Outlook Report

Prior technology transitions have followed a recognizable pattern of value creation. For example, the chart shows relative stock performance during the mobile internet era.

Semiconductors captured value first. Hardware and infrastructure followed. Software and services captured the third and largest wave, outperforming both prior waves in magnitude and duration.

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Waves of Value: Relative Stock Performance During Mobile Internet Era

• Today, we’re seeing a similar story unfold where the initial phase of value creation was concentrated in semiconductor manufacturers and compute infrastructure providers.

• A second phase has accrued to foundational AI model providers, hyperscaler platforms and data centers. Now, a third phase may see value flow to software and applications that embed AI directly into operational workflows.

• The third wave is still early. Surveys of workers suggest between 20 and 40 percent are using AI in the workplace, but only 1% of enterprise data is currently incorporated into the LLMs they are using.

• This suggests that large-scale operational integration of AI remains nascent, which is precisely what makes the current moment compelling for investors with the right positioning.