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Amundi's Executive Summary

  • Amundi's Executive Summary

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  • Amundi's Executive Summary
Equity/April 21, 2026/2 min read/research-center.amundi.com

Reforms and reflation: unlocking Japanese equity upside | Amundi Research

Source
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"While near‑term volatility in Japanese equities due to interest‑rate normalisation and political risk is possible, the structural story—driven by corporate governance reform—is creating opportunities. There is a strong case for Japan’s mid‑ and small‑cap universe, whose valuation discounts to large-cap peers should offer upside as those reforms take hold." - Vincent Mortier - Group CIO, Amundi & Monica Defend -  Head of Amundi Investment Institute

"Japan’s challenge is less about financial tightening and more about reshaping private-sector behaviour under a new regime where inflation has returned." - Claire Huang- Senior EM Macro Strategist, Amundi Investment Institute

There are two secular forces at play driving the improvement in Japanese earnings: reflation and enhanced capital productivity. These tailwinds are unique, and investors should benefit as the valuation discount progressively unwinds relative to other markets. - Barry Glavin- Head of Equity, Amundi Asset Management

"Stock‑exchange governance reforms and the end of deflation have sparked renewed international interest in Japanese equities at a time when demand for diversification is high." - - Head of Investment Insights, Publishing and Client Development, Amundi Investment Institute

References

  1. Original source (research-center.amundi.com)

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Published
April 21, 2026
Read time
2 min read
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Claudia Bertino

Amundi's Executive Summary

Japanese equities traded at a discount 

The Japanese equity market has underperformed for many years and has traded at a lower price-to-book (P/B) valuation than global peers. This discount has been warranted because return-on-equity (ROE) has been lower, reflecting an inflated denominator: balance sheets are overly large. Many companies have hoarded excess cash, held sizable stakes in other companies and built significant property portfolios. Those assets are not required for operations and represent poor uses of shareholder capital.

Corporate governance reform tackling Japan’s valuation discount

Over a decade ago, under Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, Japanese regulators pushed a corporate governance agenda to ensure businesses allocated capital more efficiently and acted in shareholders’ best interests. Since then, many companies have divested non core assets, reduced cash balances and returned excess capital to shareholders. These actions shrink the ROE denominator, lift ROE, support higher P/B multiples and increase earnings per share (EPS) as shares outstanding decline. Nevertheless, Japan Inc. still needs further balance-sheet reform and shareholders should benefit as value is unlocked over the coming years.

Economic backdrop provides additional tailwinds 

Furthermore, this process has more recently been playing out against an increasingly favourable economic backdrop. The Japanese economy appears to be emerging from decades of secular deflation. Stronger nominal GDP growth and a more normal interest-rate regime provide a substantially healthier environment for corporate profitability.

Japan disciplined adaptation to a world of controlled disorder

We believe this time is different for Japanese equities. A political reset has enabled a disciplined, large-scale integration of fiscal activism, security, and technology policy. Japan has exited deflation both economically and psychologically, is building capacity rather than imposing austerity, and is repositioning as a strategic anchor in the Indo-Pacific. Social constraints are managed through technology, marking a structural—not cyclical—shift.

Apollo: The chart book available here https://www.apollo.com/content/dam/apolloaem/pdf/daily spark/2026/may/28/OddLots ImpactOfAI v2.pdf looks at the impact of AI on the economy and financial markets.