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Technology/February 8, 2026/1 min read/newsletter.semianalysis.com

DRAM suppliers overtime | SemiAnalysis

Source

Source : SemiAnalysis

The risks inherent in “memory economics” are high. A highly commoditized product with elastic demand versus a capex-heavy, long-timeline, inelastic supply produces a challenging, cyclical market.

During the Windows PC supercycle of the early to mid-1990s, there were approximately 20 meaningful DRAM suppliers. Elevated demand and strong pricing attracted aggressive capital investment and new entrants. Subsequent downcycles systematically eliminated the weaker players. From roughly 20+ players in the mid-1990s, the number of players contracted to the mid-teens in the 2000s and early 2010s, to fewer than 10 relevant suppliers in the 2020s. Today, there are only 3-4 material suppliers.

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  1. Original source (newsletter.semianalysis.com)

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Published
February 8, 2026
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1 min read
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From a demand perspective, memory consumption is not always linear or predictable. During mature phases of existing product cycles, demand growth can be relatively stable, driven primarily by incremental unit growth or stable increases in memory content per device. However, during “inflection periods,” when new computing platforms or architectures emerge as primary demand drivers, memory demand can shift abruptly. During these periods, memory consumption tends to grow non-linearly if not explosively.

There have been several of these product cycle inflections over the past few decades. New computing platforms like the PC, the smartphone, cloud computing, and now AI accelerators drove abrupt increases in both the number of systems and memory content per system. In prior cycles, these demand inflections often caught memory suppliers off guard, a dynamic we will discuss in the following section.

"Brookfield's the largest infrastructure owner in the world... We drew a pipeline and we showed all the different components of the payments ecosystem on a pipeline and said it's like a pipe that moves any commodity except what it's moving…