"The post-WW2 and Cold War global architecture is crumbling; systemic geopolitical and geoeconomic instability is rising; so are risks of geo-financial instability as fiscal deficits grow, public debt rises, and hopes for rate cuts meet sticky inflation." - RaboResearch (Michael Every & Christian Lawrence) (Executive summary).
"Stablecoins may play a pivotal role – though ironically they are likely to create further instability before cementing an alternative." - RaboResearch (Michael Every & Christian Lawrence) (Executive summary).
"USD stablecoins convert US debt like T-Bills/Repo (narrow inside money) into spendable cash (outside money)." - RaboResearch (Michael Every & Christian Lawrence) (Discussion on money/moneyness).
"The dominant USD stablecoin is Tether, with a market capitalisation of $163bn." - RaboResearch (report text) (Market structure / current state).
"To do so it will create a federal regulatory system for stablecoins 100% backed by US dollars or short term US debt (T-Bills), whose reserve composition must be reported publicly on a monthly basis." - (Policy context).
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“Should US dollar stablecoins become widely used in the euro area – whether for payments, savings, or settlement – the ECB’s control over monetary conditions could be weakened. This encroachment, though gradual, could echo patterns observed in dollarised economies…” - European Central Bank (ECB blog, cited in report) (ECB risk warning).
"USD stablecoins could clearly help forge a new US-centric system -- with fewer US trade imbalances and more industry – vs that of China/Russia/BRICS." - RaboResearch (Michael Every & Christian Lawrence) (Geopolitics).
"We see the entry of stablecoins into an unstable system." - RaboResearch (conclusion) (Closing synthesis).
Executive Summary (3–5 sentences)
The report argues that USD-backed stablecoins are emerging as a strategically important financial innovation that could materially affect US debt management, the dollar’s global reserve role, and geopolitics.
By linking stablecoins to short-term US liabilities (notably T-Bills), policy choices — exemplified by the GENIUS Act — could create automatic demand for US short-dated debt and reshape international payments and trade.
That process may strengthen the dollar in some ways while also accelerating geopolitical fragmentation and short-term instability, before any new geoeconomic equilibrium forms.
Key Takeaways
Stablecoins are already large: global fiat-stablecoin market cap cited at bold: $234bn, with >99% USD-pegged—this is predominantly a US story.
Tether dominates:bold: $163bn market cap; Cantor Fitzgerald is named as primary manager of its collateral, linking private stablecoins to established US financial actors.
Debt absorption mechanism: USD stablecoins backed by T-Bills would create forced buyers of US short-term debt—helpful for Treasury issuance but raising central bank / money-supply tensions.
Money vs moneyness: stablecoins change what counts as outside money—they make otherwise illiquid/inside assets (T-Bills, repo) spendable and thus shift monetary and liquidity dynamics.
Policy + geopolitics = power: the US could use stablecoins as part of neo-mercantilist economic statecraft, reinforcing dollar dominance and potentially coercing partners (e.g., energy or trade settlement in stablecoins).
Programmability = control (and controversy): smart-contract design could restrict transferability (sanctions by code), lowering fungibility and raising surveillance/state-control concerns.
European constraints: the ECB and euro area face limited options — no deep, liquid Eurobond pool and political constraints — making countering USD stablecoin penetration difficult.
Short-term instability likely: rollout (even regulated) increases geopolitical/currency blocing and financial instability risks before any stabilizing long-run benefits.
Detailed Summary by Topic
What are stablecoins?
Main concepts & definitions: Stablecoins are digital tokens designed to mirror fiat currencies. The report divides them into commodity-collateralized, algorithmic, crypto-collateralised, and fiat-collateralised, with fiat-collateralised being the dominant and fastest-growing category. Those are on-chain tokens backed by pools of fiat or short-term US assets held by custodians.
Reasoning / implications: Because most fiat stablecoins today are USD-pegged ( >99% ), their expansion is effectively an extension of US dollar liquidity into blockchain rails, with direct links to US short-term markets (T-Bills, repo).
Connection: Sets up the rest of the report — why US fiscal needs, monetary architecture, and geopolitics make USD stablecoins consequential.
Why would people use stablecoins? (Security, Anonymity, Parsimony, Practicality, Prosperity)
Main concepts: Users value
(1) security from counterparty risk (holding tokens in your own wallet),
(2) anonymity relative to fiat on/off-ramps,
(3) parsimony—lower cross-border costs and avoidance of SWIFT friction, (4) practicality—payment acceptance is growing, and
(5) prosperity—ability to earn yield via MMF-like structures.
Context & reasoning: These features make stablecoins attractive for traders, remitters, and jurisdictions facing FX constraints. They also create demand for the underlying collateral (e.g., T-Bills).
Why does the US want stablecoins? — Debt angle
Main argument: The US faces rising public debt (CBO projection ~bold: 156% of GDP by mid-century in baseline scenarios). To manage financing costs the Treasury has shifted issuance to the short end; USD stablecoins backed by short-term US assets would mechanically increase demand for T-Bills and similar instruments.
Implications: That demand reduces pressure on long-term yields but raises questions for the
Federal Reserve about money supply, yield-curve dynamics, and central bank independence when Treasury-driven instruments become de-facto spendable money.
Why does the US want stablecoins? — Dollar / Reserve status
Main argument: USD stablecoins could reinforce dollar-dominance by giving non-US holders cheap, anonymous access to USD-like instruments and by providing programmable rails for trade settlement.
Mechanics and risk: This could deepen the Triffin-style dependency—expanding stablecoin trade requires matching issuance of US short-term liabilities (T-Bills or repo), or alternative backing (reserves, reverse repo), and may force policy trade-offs.
Connection to trade & sanctions: Programmability could enable the US to control flows more tightly (e.g., block or lock wallets), strengthening sanctions capability but decreasing fungibility and increasing black-market flows.
Geopolitics and strategic statecraft
Main argument: USD stablecoins are a geoeconomic tool — they can be used to re-embed trade partners into US value chains, support reindustrialisation policy, and penalise rivals. The report frames this as an element of neo-mercantilist strategy in a bifurcating world.
Examples & implications: The US could pressure energy exporters or trade partners to accept stablecoins for settlement, expanding international usage. China and Russia will resist and may develop rival stablecoins or CBDCs, accelerating blocification.
The ‘Global Euro Moment’ and Europe’s dilemma
Main concepts: The ECB has flagged concern (the “Global Euro moment”), but that optimism appears fragile as the ECB itself worries about USD stablecoin penetration weakening its monetary control. Europe lacks a straightforward collateral pool (no Eurobonds) and faces political limits on issuing its own defensive stablecoin.
Conclusion: Europe’s policy options are limited — blocking USD stablecoins risks political/economic fallout; developing a euro stablecoin faces scale and governance problems.
What is to be done? (Report conclusion)
Main takeaways: The authors see limited immediate actions for Europe and many smaller economies. USD stablecoins are likely to strengthen the US fiscal/dollar position while increasing short-term instability and geopolitical fragmentation. The final line: “We see the entry of stablecoins into an unstable system.”
Data & Figures (table)
Data Point
Value
Context
Global fiat stablecoin market cap
$234bn
Total market cap (report opening).
Share USD-pegged (fiat stablecoins)
>99%
TBAC / market composition.
Tether market capitalization
$163bn
Dominant USD stablecoin.
Amount of USD-denominated stablecoins backed by US T-Bills
Long-run federal debt path used to motivate T-Bill issuance dynamics. Figure 1 (page 3).
Assumed T-Bill share shift
21% → 25%
Used in T-Bill issuance projection for Figure 4.
Stories & Anecdotes (memorable examples / case studies)
Tether & Cantor Fitzgerald — Tether named as the dominant stablecoin with Cantor Fitzgerald (a US Treasury primary dealer) described as primary manager of Tether’s collateral. Illustrates how private stablecoins already weave into established US financial players (page 1–2).
GENIUS Act (policy vignette) — US legislative proposal to require 100% backing by US dollars or short-term US debt and monthly public reporting of reserves; used to illustrate a deliberate federal strategy to link stablecoins with US fiscal instruments (page 1).
ECB blog reaction — ECB’s excerpt warning that wide USD stablecoin use in the euro area could weaken ECB monetary control; used to show policy pushback and European vulnerability (page 6).
Programmability example — hypothetical description where smart contract code could lock or block wallets identified as from a certain jurisdiction, showing how code may be used as policy enforcement.
Trade coercion scenario — suggested leverage of the US to insist on payment for energy (from Saudi/UAE/Qatar) in USD stablecoins to expand adoption (page 4–5).
References & Recommendations (documented sources mentioned in the report)
Reports / Official documents
TBAC “Digital Money” (April 30, 2025) — Used for money-supply illustrations and collateral breakdowns (T-Bills share, money-supply reshuffle). (Referenced throughout; see Figures 3 & related text).
Policy & Legislation
GENIUS Act (Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins) — Summarised in report: requires 100% US asset backing and monthly reserve disclosure (policy context).
US executive order (January) — Cited re: CBDC restrictions and potential impacts on digital euro efforts.
Institutions & People referenced
Tether — largest USD stablecoin (market details).
Cantor Fitzgerald — named as primary manager of Tether collateral.
ECB / Christine Lagarde — quoted notion of a “Global Euro moment” and ECB blog concerns.
Data sources / charts
Macrobond / Bloomberg / CBO — used for Figures 1–8 (debt trajectories, term premium, FX reserves, SWIFT share, gold reserves, CNY share). See Figures 1–8 (pages 3–5).
Speakers & Credentials
Michael Every — Senior Global Strategist, RaboResearch (primary author / voice in the report). Contact details included in the report.
Christian Lawrence — Head of Cross-Asset Strategy, RaboResearch (co-author).
RaboResearch / Rabobank Global Economics & Markets — institutional origin; the document is marketing communication (non-independent research) — see disclaimer (page 12).
Actionable Next Steps
Monitor US Legislative Frameworks: Track developments around acts requiring stablecoins to be strictly backed by T-Bills, as this will heavily impact US debt yields and global liquidity.
Evaluate Corporate Treasury Exposure: Businesses engaged in cross-border trade should evaluate the infrastructural feasibility of transacting in USD stablecoins to bypass traditional FX fees, avoid CEX counterparty risks, and reduce settlement delays.
Assess Geopolitical Risk in Supply Chains: Given the programmable nature of stablecoins and rising neo-mercantilism, organizations must assess their exposure to jurisdictions that may face sudden stablecoin restrictions or sanctions by the US via smart contracts.
Watch the ECB's Response: Monitor how the European Central Bank develops its digital Euro or introduces regulatory friction against USD stablecoins to protect its monetary sovereignty.
Jul 13, 2026
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