Inside Economics Podcast #290 - Yielding to Pressure | 25 Aug 2026 | Moody's Talks - Inside Economics Podcast with Mark Zandi

1. Executive Briefing (TL;DR)

• Top Key Takeaways:

  • Bond Market Sell-off & Yield Spikes: The 10-year Treasury yield surged by ~70–75 bps from sub-4.00% pre-Iran War levels to 4.70%–4.75%, while the 30-year yield touched ~5.25%, pushing long-term rates back to pre-GFC (Global Financial Crisis) levels [00:04:56].
  • Decomposition of Yield Move: Inflation expectations remain anchored at the Fed's 2.0% target and contributed 0 bps to the sell-off []. Higher expected short-term real rates account for ~30–35 bps [], while the expansion of the accounts for over half of the entire sell-off [].