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On this page

Speakers & Credentials

  • Speakers & Credentials
  • 1. Executive Summary
  • 2. Chronological Table of Contents
  • 3. Detailed Thematic Summary
  • The Reference Vault
  • 4. Data & Figures
  • 5. Core Frameworks & Mental Models
  • 6. Anecdotes
  • 7. References & Recommendations

On this page

  • Speakers & Credentials
  • 1. Executive Summary
  • 2. Chronological Table of Contents
  • 3. Detailed Thematic Summary
  • The Reference Vault
  • 4. Data & Figures
  • 5. Core Frameworks & Mental Models
  • 6. Anecdotes
  • 7. References & Recommendations
Middle East/March 27, 2026/9 min read/youtu.be

Iran Conflict: How Long, and How Bad? | Goldman Sachs

Source
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"For Iran, this is seen to be a regime change war with objectives of overthrowing or destabilizing the Islamic Republic in a significant way." - Sanam Vakil [00:01:03]

"The system or what remains of it is fighting for its very survival with the aim to spread the costs of the war horizontally and as widely as possible so that when offramps do appear, that this war is so costly for everyone..." - Sanam Vakil [00:01:13]

References

  1. Original source (youtu.be)

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Reading

Published
March 27, 2026
Read time
9 min read
Progress0%

"He first indicated that this was going to be quick and easy and that they would pause on day four or five of the war. And since then, the administration has been all over the place." - Sanam Vakil [00:03:08]

"The president left to his own devices would quite probably have declared we've won... But he can't say that if they still control the traffic in and out of the Strait of Hormuz." - Ambassador Dennis Ross [00:08:58]

"What are you going to get? Maybe 20 percent of the normal flow. It really depends on what the Iranians start doing after the first one... there won't be an on/off switch that the war stops on Tuesday oil flows on Wednesday." - Vice Admiral Kevin Donegan [00:15:49]


Speakers & Credentials

  • Allison Nathan: Host of Goldman Sachs Exchanges and researcher for the Top of Mind Report from Goldman Sachs Research.
  • Sanam Vakil: Director of the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House.
  • Ambassador Dennis Ross: Former Middle East advisor who has served in five US administrations.
  • Vice Admiral Kevin Donegan: Former Commander of the US Navy's Fifth Fleet and former Director of Operations of CENTCOM.

1. Executive Summary

  • The ongoing military conflict with Iran, currently in its fourth week, has caused severe global energy disruptions by shutting down regular traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
  • Iran views the U.S. and Israeli campaigns as an existential "regime change" war, responding with an asymmetrical strategy designed to spread economic and military costs horizontally across the globe to force a favorable diplomatic offramp.
  • Despite the complete conventional military supremacy of the U.S. and Israel—which has severely degraded Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile capabilities—President Trump cannot declare a unilateral victory as long as Iran retains the power to choke off global oil supplies.
  • Reopening the Strait of Hormuz via a massive, multinational maritime convoy system is militarily viable, but it would only restore roughly 20% of historical oil flow, underscoring that the energy crisis cannot be solved without a broader, negotiated resolution or mediation involving global powers like China and Russia.

2. Chronological Table of Contents

  • 00:00:05 - Introduction & The Fourth Week of the Iran Conflict
  • 00:01:03 - Iran's Existential Threat and Asymmetrical Strategy
  • 00:03:01 - Shifting U.S. Timelines and Unmet Objectives
  • 00:04:32 - Sanctions Relief and Negotiation Preconditions
  • 00:05:06 - "Military Math": Conventional Dominance vs. Drone Asymmetry
  • 00:06:23 - Why Domestic Revolution in Iran Remains Unlikely
  • 00:08:51 - The Strait of Hormuz: The Ultimate Leverage Point
  • 00:10:39 - The Assassination of Ali Larijani and the Diplomatic Void
  • 00:12:28 - The Tactical Blueprint for Multinational Maritime Convoys
  • 00:15:33 - The Harsh Reality of Restoring Global Oil Flows
  • 00:17:34 - U.S. Counter-Leverage: Kharg Island and Shadow Fleets

3. Detailed Thematic Summary

Introduction to the Conflict & The "12 Day War" Precedent [00:00:05]

  • The current military conflict with Iran has entered its fourth week, bringing severe volatility to global energy markets and effectively shutting down the Strait of Hormuz [00:00:05].
  • The origins of this conflict are rooted in the aftermath of last summer's 12 Day War [00:01:59]. During that skirmish, President Trump called an early end to operations after American B-52s struck Iranian nuclear facilities [00:02:25].
  • Iran calculated that it had agreed to a ceasefire prematurely during the 12 Day War, projecting a false sense of weakness that invited the current invasion [00:02:33]. Consequently, Iran prepared heavily and came ready for this current conflict on February 28th [00:03:19].

The Shift in Timelines, Diplomacy, and Asymmetrical Warfare [00:03:01]

  • The U.S. administration's timeline has shifted drastically; President Trump initially promised a quick conflict, predicting a pause by day 4 or 5 [00:03:08].
  • Because Iran has spread the cost of the war horizontally—impacting Gulf States and global energy markets—the U.S. finds itself locked in a conflict where declaring absolute victory is difficult [00:03:32].
  • Ultimately, Iran needs sanctions relief to survive, which will require both the U.S. and Iran to negotiate concessions regarding Iran's remaining nuclear program and broader regional security [00:04:32].
  • Sanam Vakil describes the current operational reality as a game of "Military Math" [00:05:16]. The U.S. and Israel have successfully degraded Iran’s conventional defenses, industrial complex, and nuclear program [00:05:23].
  • However, Iran relies on asymmetrical warfare, heavily utilizing cheap, low-cost drones to continuously inflict pain and exact leverage against conventional dominance [00:05:43].

The Illusion of Internal Revolution & Regime Survival [00:06:23]

  • Initial U.S. hopes relied on the idea that internal domestic unrest would cause the Iranian public to overthrow the regime during the war [00:06:08].
  • The Iranian government brutally suppressed massive protests in January, meaning the state is now using the external existential crisis to justify a heightened internal security apparatus, effectively preventing domestic revolution [00:06:35].
  • The external and internal opposition to the Iranian regime remains fractured, lacking the necessary unity, mobilization, and planning required for a "day after" governance alternative [00:07:19].

The Strait of Hormuz and The Diplomatic Void [00:08:51]

  • According to Ambassador Dennis Ross, the entire resolution hinges on the Strait of Hormuz [00:08:58]. Trump could claim victory by pointing out that Iran cannot pose a conventional threat to neighbors for at least 5 years [00:09:14].
  • However, Trump cannot unilaterally exit the war while Iran maintains the leverage to dictate shipping in the Strait [00:09:32]. A mediated outcome is essential, likely requiring pressure from Russia and China, as China has a heavy dependency on Middle East oil [00:11:28].
  • Mediation is immensely complicated because Ali Larijani was killed [00:10:48]. He was the primary figure who possessed the authority to bridge factions within Iran, including the Revolutionary Guard (IRGC). Remaining leaders like Mojtaba Khamenei, Pezeshkian, or Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf lack the same cohesive authority [00:10:54].

Executing Convoys and Restoring Global Oil Flow [00:12:28]

  • Vice Admiral Kevin Donegan outlines the military plan to forcibly open the strait using international convoys, an operation the U.S. and its allies have rehearsed for 15 years [00:13:10].
  • Last year, 30 nations came together to drill this exact scenario [00:13:07]. Major capable players include France and Greece (who gained vital experience fighting the Houthis), alongside the UK, Australia, Japan, South Korea, Turkey, and Egypt [00:13:30].
  • The blueprint involves creating a "Moving Sanctuary of Security" using complete U.S. air superiority over the Iranian coast, layered with overhead drones, satellites, and cyber warfare [00:14:04]. During this operation, the U.S. will have a much lower tolerance for small Iranian "dhows" (small boats) in the water, assuming they are acting as observers to report convoy coordinates back to Iran [00:15:14].
  • Despite this robust capability, Donegan warns that convoys are a band-aid. Because ships must be escorted both in and out, the convoy system would at best restore 20 percent of normal oil flow [00:15:49].
  • Even if hostilities cease, oil will not flow immediately. Shipping companies, insurance companies, tankering companies, and LNG companies will require significant lag time to assess the true threat level and re-establish trust before committing to passage [00:16:04].
  • The U.S. also possesses immense counter-leverage: it effectively holds Kharg Island hostage, meaning it can immediately cut off all Iranian exports, or seize the shadow fleet carriers moving Iranian oil [00:17:34].

The Reference Vault

4. Data & Figures

Data PointValueContextTimestamp
Conflict Duration4 weeksDuration of the current military conflict involving Iran and the U.S./Israel at the time of recording.[00:00:05]
Previous Conflict Length12 DaysThe duration of the previous summer's war, which was ended prematurely by U.S. intervention.[00:01:59]
Original U.S. Timeline EstimateDay 4 or 5The period when President Trump initially signaled a pause or quick victory in the war.[00:03:08]
Iran's Offensive Readiness DateFebruary 28thThe exact date Iran deployed its prepared forces to counter the offensive.[00:03:19]

5. Core Frameworks & Mental Models

  1. Horizontal Cost-Spreading (Asymmetrical Leverage) [00:01:13]
    • Application: Outmatched in conventional warfare, Iran uses low-cost asymmetrical assets (like cheap drones) to attack regional infrastructure and energy chokepoints. By spreading the financial and logistical costs globally, they force international players to seek a diplomatic offramp rather than allowing the U.S. to achieve total victory.
  2. The "Military Math" Disconnect [00:05:16]
    • Application: A framework for understanding that overwhelming conventional superiority (taking out defense plants, air defenses, and nuclear sites) does not equate to strategic victory if the weaker opponent can still weaponize global economic vulnerabilities.
  3. The "Moving Sanctuary of Security" [00:14:04]
    • Application: A multi-domain, layered defensive tactical doctrine utilized by the U.S. Fifth Fleet to escort commercial shipping through hostile waters. It relies on total air superiority, overhead drones, cyber warfare, and allied surface ships to create an impenetrable, mobile bubble around commercial assets.
  4. Counter-Leverage & Mutual Economic Destruction [00:17:34]
    • Application: While Iran holds the global economy hostage via the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. actively holds Iran's ultimate economic survival hostage by possessing the ability to instantly eliminate the Kharg Island oil terminal and the shadow fleet network.

6. Anecdotes

  • The "Boomerang Effect" of the 12 Day War [00:01:59]: Last summer, a brief 12-Day War erupted, demonstrating Israel's ability to successfully strike Iran. However, President Trump prematurely halted the war after B-52 strikes. Iran learned a crucial lesson: by accepting an early ceasefire, they projected weakness, which directly invited the current full-scale invasion.
  • The Rehearsals for the Strait of Hormuz [00:13:07]: Vice Admiral Kevin Donegan recounted how the U.S. Fifth Fleet wasn't caught off-guard by the Strait's closure. For 15 years, they had been running exercises with allied nations. Just last year, they managed to wrangle 30 different nations to simulate forcing convoys through the strait, allowing commanders to know exactly what tier of ships and capabilities each ally (from France to Egypt) could practically contribute.
  • The Death of Ali Larijani [00:10:48]: Ambassador Dennis Ross highlights that a mediated peace relies on having a credible powerbroker. That broker was Ali Larijani, the singular leader capable of unifying the fractured Iranian leadership and the IRGC. Because he was killed during this conflict, a massive diplomatic void was created, making a negotiated offramp significantly harder to orchestrate.

7. References & Recommendations

  • Companies, Organizations, & Governments: * Goldman Sachs Research (Top of Mind Report)
    • Chatham House (Middle East and North Africa program)
    • U.S. Navy's Fifth Fleet / CENTCOM
    • Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)
    • Shipping, Insurance, Tankering, and LNG Companies
    • Coalition Nations: France, UK, Greece, Australia, Japan, South Korea, Turkey, Egypt
  • People Mentioned: * President Donald Trump
    • Ali Larijani (Deceased Iranian official)
    • Mojtaba Khamenei
    • Masoud Pezeshkian
    • Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf (Speaker of the Parliament)
  • Key Geopolitical Entities & Assets:
    • Strait of Hormuz
    • Kharg Island (Iranian oil export hub)
    • Houthis (Yemen-based group)
    • Shadow fleet carriers (Vessels illegally moving Iranian oil)
    • Dhows (Small regional boats historically tolerated but now viewed as Iranian observer assets)
    • B-52 Bombers

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Iranian Capability Setback5 YearsThe estimated minimum amount of time Iran's conventional and ballistic threat capabilities have been set back.[00:09:14]
Preparation Time15 YearsThe duration the U.S. Fifth Fleet has actively rehearsed contingencies for the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.[00:13:10]
Coalition Size30 NationsThe number of allied countries that gathered last year to rehearse the maritime convoy operation.[00:13:07]
Oil Flow Restoration Capacity20 PercentThe maximum normal oil flow that heavily guarded maritime convoys could realistically re-establish.[00:15:49]