Real Yield 7/9/2026 | Bloomberg Television

Nuggets

Real Yield 7/9/2026 | Bloomberg Television · Nuggets

Michael McKee: Bloomberg International Economics and Policy Correspondent. Maintains a hawkish Fed-watching stance, focusing heavily on persistent service inflation data and consumer expectations [00:02:30].
Subadra Rajappa: Head of Rates Strategy at Société Générale. Holds a baseline view that the Fed will remain structurally on hold for the remainder of the year; watches debt/deficit trajectories and notes a shift toward range-bound long-end yields with an unfolding bear steepener curve dynamic [00:05:10], [00:11:42].
Vineer Bhansali: Founder of Longtail Alpha. Takes a macro-trading and systematic perspective, holding a strong conviction that the Federal Reserve has essentially "lost control" of the macroeconomy and forecasting a structural long-term regime shift where bad risk is actively penalized [00:05:10], [00:08:14].
Tasos Vasos: Bloomberg News Credit Reporter. Highly focused on unprecedented passive credit crowding risks and historically compressed credit spreads [00:13:27].
Aaron Weinman: Bloomberg Leverage Finance Reporter. Evaluates the supply/demand imbalances in the CLO warehouse ecosystem and structural trends in speculative-grade loan refinancing [00:16:29].
Ed Ludlow: Bloomberg Technology Anchor. Provides corporate tech intelligence with a current focus on public benefit structures and artificial intelligence economics [00:21:50].
Zachary Griffiths: Head of US Investment Grade (IG) and Macro Strategy at CreditSights. Maintains a fundamentally comfortable outlook on credit technicals due to high money-market fund cash levels; highlights floating rate structures over fixed exposure [00:15:52], [00:26:16].
Gretchen Lam: Chief Executive Officer at Octagon Credit Investors. An expert on Collateralized Loan Obligations (CLOs) and syndicated corporate loan markets, closely tracking systemic software-sector debt degradation [00:15:52].
Nick Carell: Bloomberg Municipal Bond Reporter. Focuses on regional municipal fiscal crises and local budgeting dynamics [00:34:45].
Enda Curran: Bloomberg Global Economics Reporter. Tracks macroeconomic data and central bank policy reaction functions [00:37:15].

Geopolitical Friction & The Fed Mandate [00:00:19 - 00:05:04]
- New US retaliatory air strikes against Iranian positions have effectively ended the tentative June 17th Memorandum of Understanding ceasefire, injecting instantaneous volatility into global sovereign debt markets [00:00:19], [00:04:51].
- The Federal Reserve is caught in an internal policy tension: while the recent headline payroll prints show marginal, stable signs of cooling to a neutral "break-even" level of job creation, persistent energy price spikes risk unanchoring consumer inflation expectations [00:03:40], [00:04:20].
- The Fed is largely bypassing volatile headline inputs to monitor "super core" inflation—services excluding housing—which has steadily advanced for 3 to 4 consecutive months parallel to Middle Eastern conflicts [00:03:05].
Unconstrained Credit & Passive Index Concentration [00:13:12 - 00:16:06]
- Global credit spreads are resting near historical multi-decade lows since the 1990s, forcing active managers to turn away from standard corporate benchmarks due to a heavily skewed risk-reward calculation [00:13:46].
- Unprecedented $2 billion corporate debt block transactions from technology hyperscalers have become a bi-monthly commonplace event rather than an anomaly, resulting in massive systemic concentration risks within passive fixed-income ETFs [00:14:51].
- Capital allocators are rotating heavily into active "go anywhere" unconstrained funds to escape this artificial price inflation and corporate crowding, prompting a 6% AUM expansion in the US and 10% in Europe [00:13:12].
Leverage Loan Repricings & CLO Warehouse Tailwinds [00:16:11 - 00:21:15]
- Junk-rated borrowers (such as Celsius and Skechers) are aggressively executing opportunistic loan repricings to shave down financing costs by 25 to 50 basis points [00:16:16], [00:17:17].
- This trend is being facilitated by a distinct lack of "new money" deployment opportunities arising from frozen Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A) and private equity valuation standstills [00:16:51].
- Consequently, heavy institutional CLO buyers are sitting on massive amounts of warehoused, uninvested cash that they are forced to put to work, shifting leverage back to corporate borrowers at the expense of investor coupon yields and investment banking fees [], [].
The Hyperscale Tech Debt Glut & The AI Expansion [00:24:24 - 00:34:00]
- Amazon’s historic $25 billion issuance represents a baseline paradigm shift where tech behemoths have cumulatively tapped over $100 billion across multi-currency markets to bankroll nearly $200 billion in projected annual AI capex [00:24:29], [00:25:06].
- Investor fatigue is visible via built-in new issue concessions climbing to 15-20 basis points, alongside secondary-market traders actively dumping older tech paper to construct liquidity buffers for new mega-issuances [00:27:12], [].
Municipal Distress: The Jersey City Case Study [00:34:29 - 00:36:50]
- Following decades of waterfront structural expansion, Jersey City has hit a major fiscal wall, revealing a massive $255 million structural budget deficit equivalent to a quarter of its entire annual operating budget [00:35:05].
- The budgetary distress stems from structural miscalculations by the prior administration, specifically funding recurring municipal operational expenses using volatile, one-time revenue windfalls [00:35:19].
- Political gridlock has ensued: the city council unanimously blocked a revised 15% property tax hike proposal, forcing a reliance on an unprecedented $120 million emergency state aid package, inclusive of a record-setting $105 million direct state loan [00:36:11], [].

Real Yield 7/9/2026 | Bloomberg Television

1. Executive Briefing (TL;DR)

References

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Real Yield 7/9/2026 | Bloomberg Television

1. Executive Briefing (TL;DR)

References

More nuggets

Robert Kaplan Exclusive | India's Growing Economic Potential Amid Global Challenges

BofA: The Consumer’s Summer Spending Surge | 15 Jul 2026

Must Read Research: SpaceX; The Next AI Winners; Europe’s Earnings Momentum; Buy Value | 14 Jul 2026

2. Speaker Profiles & Context

3. Thematic Deep Dives

Geopolitical Friction & The Fed Mandate [00:00:19 - 00:05:04]

Unconstrained Credit & Passive Index Concentration [00:13:12 - 00:16:06]

Leverage Loan Repricings & CLO Warehouse Tailwinds [00:16:11 - 00:21:15]

The Hyperscale Tech Debt Glut & The AI Expansion [00:24:24 - 00:34:00]

Municipal Distress: The Jersey City Case Study [00:34:29 - 00:36:50]

4. Forward Looking Indicators & Risks

5. Data & Macro Matrix

Capital Group: 2026 Midyear Outlook | 16 July 2026