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On this page

Speakers & Credentials

  • Speakers & Credentials
  • 1. Executive Summary
  • 2. Chronological Table of Contents
  • 3. Detailed Thematic Summary
  • The Reference Vault
  • 4. Data & Figures
  • 5. Core Frameworks & Mental Models
  • 6. Anecdotes
  • 7. References & Recommendations

On this page

  • Speakers & Credentials
  • 1. Executive Summary
  • 2. Chronological Table of Contents
  • 3. Detailed Thematic Summary
  • The Reference Vault
  • 4. Data & Figures
  • 5. Core Frameworks & Mental Models
  • 6. Anecdotes
  • 7. References & Recommendations
Middle East/March 18, 2026/8 min read/youtu.be

Grand Macro Strategy Behind Venezuela and Iran - Most Important Conflict in 50 years? Michael Every

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"Iran obviously together with the Middle East around it is around 20% of global oil flows 30% of fertilizer flows key sulfur and and helium flows too and whoever can control that really has the whip hand..." - Michael Every [00:04:08]

"if it retreats from here now even if oil prices go down and everyone breathes a sigh of relief the US would have shown itself to be effectively the same as the UK and France in 1956 in the Suez crisis which ended them as great powers independently..." - Michael Every [00:04:49]

References

  1. Original source (youtu.be)

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Published
March 18, 2026
Read time
8 min read
Progress0%

"very often you have to go to the edge before you resolve something and it's only when everything is on the table in a big gamble that you actually walk away with the biggest prize..." - Michael Every [00:10:45]

"if the US is no longer where it was then Europe is nothing compared to the US what does the west actually bring to the table so the one thing you could say that whether it's safer or more dangerous in that environment it's one in which in the broadest sense of the term the terms of trade would turn against the west..." - Michael Every [00:16:18]

"this is what utopian believers in free markets think free markets do that somehow just by having markets you end up with this process that doesn't happen historically that doesn't happen..." - Michael Every [00:22:44]

"if you think it's good that Trump might lose here because you don't like magnanomics which I can understand actually there's nothing good waiting for you on the other side if loses because it won't be replaced by the rules-based order it will be replaced by disorder with no rules..." - Michael Every [00:26:15]


Speakers & Credentials

  • Anthony Fatseas: Host of the "What the Finance" podcast, leading discussions on macroeconomics, investing, and geopolitics.
  • Michael Every: Global Strategist at Rabobank. A leading voice warning about the shifting global economic system, trade wars, global fragmentation, and the resurgence of economic statecraft for over a decade.

1. Executive Summary

  • The global system has undergone a massive paradigm shift away from 50 years of prioritizing continuous economic growth toward a resurgence of "grand macro strategy" and mercantilism.
  • Recent American interventions, starting with Venezuela and escalating dramatically in Iran, are interconnected moves designed to deny adversaries like China access to vital resources and monopolize global commodity chokepoints.
  • Iran serves as a high-stakes pivot point: controlling access to 20% of global oil flows and 30% of fertilizer flows, meaning the victor gains the coercive power to dictate the terms of a new global economic architecture.
  • Should the US blink or retreat from this conflict, the resulting loss of deterrence would mirror the 1956 Suez Crisis, ending American unipolar dominance and ushering in a catastrophic era of "disorder with no rules" that would violently erode Western living standards.

2. Chronological Table of Contents

  • [00:00:00] Introduction & The Grand Macro Strategy Shift
  • [00:02:40] Venezuela as the Geopolitical Warm-Up
  • [00:03:39] The Iran Pivot: A Do-or-Die Geoeconomic Gamble
  • [00:07:22] Madman Theory and Chinese Vulnerability
  • [00:15:10] The Suez Crisis Analogy & The Threat of Western Decline
  • [00:18:46] The Architecture of "Breton Woods 3"
  • [00:24:04] Europe's Strategic Paralysis
  • [00:26:40] Market Implications & Conclusion

3. Detailed Thematic Summary

The Shift to Mercantilist Grand Strategy [00:01:44]

  • The global geopolitical framework has drastically evolved, abandoning a 50-year consensus that prioritized unchecked global economic growth above all else [00:01:39].
  • The system has regressed to a modern form of mercantilism, heavily relying on "grand macro strategy"—the explicit weaponization of economic policy and trade to achieve geopolitical dominance [00:01:44].
  • The recent crisis in Venezuela is identified as a highly successful "warm-up" exercise for the US, utilizing the Monroe Doctrine not just for regional security, but to strategically deny China access to vital South American commodities [00:02:47].

The Iranian Pivot Point & Global Commodity Chokepoints [00:03:39]

  • Following Venezuela, Iran has emerged as the ultimate "do or die" pivot point for the Trump administration's strategy to restructure global power dynamics [00:03:54].
  • The geoeconomic stakes are existential because the Middle East region controls approximately 20% of global oil flows and 30% of fertilizer flows [00:04:08].
  • Beyond energy and agriculture, the region is the key chokepoint for essential elements like sulfur and helium, meaning outright control grants the US the capability to unilaterally divide the world into subservient economic blocs [00:04:18].

The Suez Crisis Analogy & Chinese Vulnerability [00:04:49]

  • If the US buckles under the pressure of the Iranian blockade of Hormuz, Michael Every warns it will replicate the collapse of the UK and France during the 1956 Suez Crisis, effectively ending America's standing as an independent superpower [00:04:49].
  • To avoid this, the US may resort to the Madman Theory—intentionally sparking severe global instability and supply chain chaos to terrify rivals into submission [00:07:22].
  • China remains highly vulnerable to this tactic; despite energy safeguards, a disruption in Gulf chemicals threatens their access to helium (essential for semiconductors) and sulfur, heavily impacting the copper markets and broader Asian economies [00:11:56].

Bretton Woods 3 vs. "Disorder with No Rules" [00:18:46]

  • The ultimate ambition behind this brinkmanship is to force major powers to the negotiating table to draft a new economic architecture, colloquially referred to as Bretton Woods 3 (BW3) [00:10:01].
  • Unlike utopian free market beliefs, this framework requires explicit, paranoid political compromises, potentially mirroring the 70/30 ratios of geopolitical footprint control seen in the aftermath of World War II [00:23:30].
  • The alternative to US success is bleak: Europe—which is fundamentally paralyzed by attempting to balance 27 distinct grand macro strategies among its members—cannot fill the leadership void [00:24:28].
  • In fact, Europe recently attempted to decouple from US energy roughly 4-5 weeks ago, foolishly leaving them completely dependent on the very Middle Eastern flows now threatened by conflict [00:25:01].

The Reference Vault

4. Data & Figures

Data PointValueContextTimestamp
Global Oil Flows20%The approximate share of the world's oil that flows through Iran and the surrounding Middle East.[00:04:08]
Global Fertilizer Flows30%The percentage of the world's vital fertilizer supplies that transit through this conflict zone.[00:04:08]
Prevailing Paradigm Duration50 YearsThe span of time over which global foreign policy uniformly prioritized economic growth before shifting back to mercantilism.[00:01:39]
Suez Crisis Analogy Year1956The year the UK and France lost their independent great power status, serving as a warning for a potential US retreat today.[00:05:05]

5. Core Frameworks & Mental Models

  • Grand Macro Strategy (Economic Statecraft): The integration of heavy-handed economic policy with grand geopolitical strategy. Michael Every explains that the 50-year era of prioritizing pure GDP growth has ended. Instead, nations are now weaponizing trade flows—as seen in the US blockading commodities in Venezuela and Iran—to strip adversaries of critical resources and secure absolute geopolitical leverage. [00:01:44]
  • The Suez Crisis "Power Cliff" Analogy: A historical framework demonstrating how hegemonic power is predicated entirely on the perception of unyielding resolve. Every argues that if the US backs down in the face of the Iranian blockade because of soaring market costs, they will instantly lose their superpower deterrence, exactly as the UK and France did when they surrendered the Suez Canal in 1956 due to market pressure. [00:04:49]
  • The Madman Theory in Geoeconomics: Adapted from nuclear deterrence strategy, this model suggests a leader intentionally acts highly irrational and volatile to frighten rivals into submission. In the current crisis, the US is risking catastrophic global inflation and energy blockades to generate enough chaos that other powers (even China) will eventually be forced to support the US agenda just to restore market stability. [00:07:22]
  • Breton Woods 3 vs. World War 3: A binary outcome model for resolving global tension. It posits that avoiding catastrophic military conflict (WW3) requires pushing the world to the brink so that superpowers are scared enough to sit down and explicitly negotiate spheres of influence, guaranteed resource flows, and territorial footprints (BW3), replacing the outdated "free market utopian" approach. [00:10:01]

6. Anecdotes

  • The Venezuela Geopolitical Rehearsal: Michael Every frames the recent US intervention in Venezuela not simply as an enforcement of the Monroe Doctrine, but as an audacious "warm-up." The US used a low-cost operation to practice denying China access to vital South American commodities, deliberately setting the strategic stage for the much harder, higher-stakes confrontation in Iran weeks later. [00:02:47]
  • The Cuban Missile Crisis and Détente: To explain why the world must endure current market terrors, Every points to the Cuban Missile Crisis. He notes that it was only because the US and the Soviets pushed the world to the absolute brink of nuclear annihilation that they frightened themselves enough to enter the extended, peaceful era of détente. He suggests today's extreme brinkmanship is equally necessary to force a new grand bargain. [00:14:00]

7. References & Recommendations

  • Historical Events & Doctrines: The Monroe Doctrine, The 1956 Suez Crisis, The Cuban Missile Crisis, The Thucydides Trap, Breton Woods (and hypothetical Breton Woods 3).
  • Institutions & Platforms: Rabobank (Rabobank Knowledge hub), United Nations Security Council, BRICS.
  • Key Commodities Discussed: Middle Eastern Crude Oil, Fertilizer, Sulfur, Helium (critical for semiconductors).

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Historical Territory Ratios70/30The post-WWII division formula cited as a potential model for upcoming explicit geopolitical compromises over trade and influence.[00:23:30]
European Member Strategies27The number of distinct member states in the EU, resulting in a fractured, paralyzed macro strategy.[00:24:28]
European Decoupling Timeline4-5 WeeksThe recent timeframe wherein Europe discussed decoupling from US energy, unknowingly cornering themselves into Middle Eastern dependence.[00:25:01]