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On this page

Speakers & Credentials

  • Speakers & Credentials
  • 1. Executive Summary
  • 2. Chronological Table of Contents
  • 3. Detailed Thematic Summary
  • The Reference Vault
  • 4. Data & Figures
  • 5. Core Frameworks & Mental Models
  • 6. Memorable Anecdotes
  • 7. References & Recommendations
  • 8. Actionable Next Steps

On this page

  • Speakers & Credentials
  • 1. Executive Summary
  • 2. Chronological Table of Contents
  • 3. Detailed Thematic Summary
  • The Reference Vault
  • 4. Data & Figures
  • 5. Core Frameworks & Mental Models
  • 6. Memorable Anecdotes
  • 7. References & Recommendations
  • 8. Actionable Next Steps
Middle East/March 18, 2026/9 min read/youtu.be

Michael Every: The Global Order Is Breaking Down | Podcast

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"there are serious you know military academics which which exist and historians who would argue that we're already in World War III" - Michael Every [00:00:00]

"if you start from the premise that the market will solve all problems and resolves everything and that you don't need to take any political action at any point well you're not going to be on the map for very long" - Michael Every [00:11:16]

References

  1. Original source (youtu.be)

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Published
March 18, 2026
Read time
9 min read
Progress0%

"we've gone from 1956 to 2026 and in those 70 years you've Europe's just gone down and down and down" - Michael Every [00:27:43]

"what makes you think that's over why why is territory now completely fixed if you feel that you need to expand your footprint" - Michael Every [00:41:06]

"every time you're making a profit in the defense sector that's a bullet you're not making and wars are one with bullets not profits" - Michael Every [00:52:58]


Speakers & Credentials

  • Michael Every: Global Strategist at Rabobank. A 30-year industry veteran recognized for early warnings on the US MBS market collapse, predicting the end of the US rules-based order, and applying ancient models of statecraft to modern financial markets.

1. Executive Summary

  • The interview deconstructs the escalating collapse of the US-led, rules-based world order, arguing that purely market-driven frameworks are inadequate for understanding current global conflicts.
  • Michael Every introduces "Grand Macro Strategy," a tri-pillar framework combining politics/diplomacy, economy/finance, and the military, asserting that nation-states are now weaponizing markets (e.g., oil, gas, rare earths) to achieve geopolitical dominance.
  • The conversation closely examines the ripple effects of Iranian, Chinese, and Russian alliances, illustrating how kinetic actions in the Middle East and strategic commodities are actively reshaping the global map and deterring superpowers.
  • Ultimately, the briefing warns that Europe remains strategically isolated and overly reliant on American hegemony, while traditional investment paradigms must radically adapt to an era where defense industrial output explicitly supersedes corporate profitability.

2. Chronological Table of Contents

  • [00:00:00] Introduction & Michael Every’s Track Record
  • [00:10:04] Defining Grand Macro Strategy & Statecraft
  • [00:13:43] The Weaponization of the Market: Trump, Venezuela, & Qatar LNG
  • [00:18:43] Structural Vulnerabilities: Aramco and Utopian Free Trade
  • [00:24:20] The Axis of Resistance and US Geopolitical Deterrence
  • [00:37:40] The End of the UN and New Institutional Architectures
  • [00:42:29] Are We Already in World War III?
  • [00:54:20] Europe’s Strategic Delusions and Loss of Autonomy
  • [00:58:45] Inflation and Grand Asset Strategies

3. Detailed Thematic Summary

Early Predictions & The Shift from Economics to Geopolitics [00:05:08]

  • Michael Every built his analytical framework over 30 years, successfully anticipating the impending collapse of the US MBS market around 2003-2004 after witnessing the 1997 Asian financial crisis firsthand [00:06:27].
  • He published structural papers in 2016 and 2020 arguing that the "rules-based order" predicated on US military hegemony would inherently break down due to America’s de-industrialization and China's subsequent rise [00:08:47].
  • In January 2022, weeks ahead of Russia's invasion, he warned markets were vastly underpricing transformative global risks [00:09:11].

The Grand Macro Strategy Framework [00:10:09]

  • Every rejects the "because markets" worldview—the utopian belief that free trade singlehandedly guarantees peace [00:11:04].
  • He emphasizes Grand Macro Strategy, an ancient concept combining three pillars of statecraft: political/diplomatic, economic, and military [00:10:21].
  • As an application of economic statecraft, US administrations are forcing defense contractors to prioritize high-volume production over profit margins to replenish military stockpiles, fundamentally altering defense investment paradigms [00:12:04].

Weaponization of Global Energy Markets [00:13:43]

  • Global commodity markets serve as both targets and weapons. By moving against Venezuela, the US reclaimed control of oil flows previously destined for China, utilizing the market as a tool for geopolitical coercion [00:14:06].
  • On the day of the interview, European TTF gas prices leaped approximately 50% after Qatar halted LNG production (removing 20-21% of LNG supply) due to proximate missile threats [00:15:05].
  • Every notes that the structural damage to an Aramco refinery—which represents up to 8-10% of global oil supply—demonstrates the massive fragility of energy infrastructure, since rebuilding refining capabilities can take 10 to 12 years [00:18:57].
  • If the current Iranian conflict escalates, Iran might blockade the Strait of Hormuz; however, estimates suggest Iran may have already exhausted 25% of its missile stock in just the first two days of the conflict [00:35:46].

The Demise of American Omnipotence and European Irrelevance [00:26:14]

  • To illustrate geopolitical decay, Every compares modern Europe to Egypt during the 1956 Suez Crisis, arguing that in the 70 years between 1956 and 2026, Europe has completely lost its strategic autonomy [00:26:57].
  • Europe's panic over the US potentially purchasing Greenland exactly 6 weeks ago highlights this absolute power imbalance [00:26:14].
  • The broader dynamic forces Europe (the "B Team") into a subservient alliance with the US (the "A Team") to counter Russia (China's "B Team"), proving that true European autonomy is a mirage in the absence of fossil fuels and military mass [00:53:04].

Alternative Architectures and Multi-Front War [00:37:40]

  • Legacy institutions like the UN and the IMF are losing enforcement power, mirroring the collapse of the League of Nations prior to WWII [00:38:39].
  • Organizations like BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) are acting as alternative, competing architectures [00:39:31].
  • The US faces a potential multi-front crisis. If China moves on Taiwan, Russia hits the Baltics, Iran blocks Hormuz, and North Korea attacks South Korea simultaneously, the West is mathematically incapable of winning on all fronts and must concede territory in a "Potsdam-style" renegotiation [00:47:48].
  • To prepare, the US is attempting to allocate an extra $500 billion toward defense spending next year, though industrial capacity is so hollowed out they struggle to find actionable procurement options [00:43:57].

Financial Repression and Grand Asset Strategy [00:58:45]

  • Every mocks the bureaucratic obsession with metrics like 1.9% Core CPI, stating that ordinary citizens care about actual price levels, not deceleration metrics [01:00:03].
  • In defense contracting, political interventions may cap executive compensation at $5 million a year and ban stock buybacks to ensure taxpayer capital yields physical munitions instead of shareholder returns [01:03:10].
  • Traditional market allocation fails here. Investors must locate assets that can trade freely outside the strict cages of wartime capital controls and state-mandated pricing schemes [01:04:26].

The Reference Vault

4. Data & Figures

Data PointValueContextTimestamp
Transaction Discount20%Promotional discount at GoldRepublic (code: interview one) for precious metals.[00:00:44]
European Gas Price Surge~50%One-day leap in TTF standard due to Qatar pausing LNG production.[00:15:05]
Qatar LNG Supply Share20-21%The percentage of global LNG supply temporarily removed from the market.[00:15:20]
Aramco Supply Share~8-10%Estimated share of global oil supply tied to the compromised refinery.[00:18:57]

5. Core Frameworks & Mental Models

  1. Grand Macro Strategy [00:10:09]
    • Concept: The ancient practice of managing an empire by perfectly aligning three vectors: politics/diplomacy, economics/finance, and the military.
    • Application: Evaluating global events not just through market reactions ("because markets"), but understanding that nations will purposefully sacrifice economic efficiency to secure military advantage or geopolitical leverage.
  2. The "A-Team vs. B-Team" Dynamic [00:53:04]
    • Concept: A geopolitical mapping model describing superpower proxy wars.
    • Application: The US (A-Team) confronts China (A-Team), while delegating the containment of Russia (China's B-Team) to Europe (America's B-Team). Europe's failure to recognize its B-Team status leads to strategic miscalculations regarding its own autonomy.
  3. The "Bullets over Profits" Defense Economy [00:52:58]
    • Concept: The inevitable wartime inversion of corporate incentives.
    • Application: In peacetime, defense contractors maximize shareholder value and margins. In pre-war or active war environments, statecraft dictates that financialization is dismantled; excess profit is viewed as a deficit in physical munitions.

6. Memorable Anecdotes

  • The 1956 Suez Crisis as a Mirror to Modern Europe [00:26:57]
    • Michael relates how the UK and France invaded Egypt in 1956 thinking they were still imperial superpowers, only for the US to force a run on their currencies and humiliate them into retreat. He uses this to explain that Europe's current panic over the US potentially buying Greenland proves Europe has entirely degraded to the status of 1956 Egypt—a pawn on a superpower's board.
  • Presenting to the G20 [00:03:09]
    • Every recounts being invited to present to the G20, sharing that the highlight of his career wasn't actually presenting the first time, but rather being permanently banned from presenting a second time. He views the cancellation as a "feather in his cap," proving his macro strategy truths were too uncomfortable for global technocrats to endure twice.
  • The 1997 Asian Financial Crisis & "The Big Short" [00:05:23]
    • Recalling his time as a fixed-income strategist for the Royal Bank of Canada in London, Every points out he was predicting the US MBS collapse at the exact same time as the famous "Big Short" players. Having lived in Southeast Asia during the 1997 crash, he applied the exact same structural decay methodology to the 2004 US economy, eventually quitting his job to safely watch the inevitable implosion from a pool in Asia.

7. References & Recommendations

  • Historical Events & Concepts: 1956 Suez Crisis, 1988 Iran-Iraq Tanker War, The League of Nations vs. The UN, The Monroe Doctrine, Potsdam Conference, Tehran Conference.
  • Geopolitical Actors & Institutions: BRICS, Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), Office for Strategic Capital (US), The Fed, G20.
  • Media: The Big Short (film/book context referencing the 2008 MBS collapse), George Orwell's 1984 (referenced for its tripolar worldview).

8. Actionable Next Steps

  1. Pivot Asset Allocations Toward Uncensorable Markets: Prepare for extreme wartime capital controls and mandated unprofitability in strategic sectors (like defense and energy). Move capital into assets that explicitly trade freely outside of governmental caging or margin suppression.
  2. Audit Supply Chain Vulnerability to Geopolitical Chokepoints: Businesses must immediately stress-test their operations against a multi-front disruption scenario (e.g., simultaneous blockades in the Strait of Hormuz, conflict over Taiwan, and European energy shutoffs).
  3. Adopt the "Grand Macro" Evaluation Matrix: Cease relying solely on traditional economic forecasting (interest rates, CPI). Institute a framework that evaluates all investments through the intertwined lenses of domestic politics, international diplomacy, and physical military logistics.

Full Episode: The AI Industrial Revolution | 2 Jun 2026 | Naval and Nivi

Context: Host Naval Ravikant introduces a roundtable discussion on the "AI Industrial Revolution" with three frontier deep tech and software founders who build their own physical factories and tech infrastructure from first principles rath…

Refinery Lead Time10-12 YearsTime required to build new global refining capabilities.[00:19:12]
Iranian Missile Depletion~25%Estimated portion of Iran's missile stock used in the conflict's first two days.[00:35:46]
Proposed US Defense Increase$500 BillionTarget additional defense spend next year, hampered by lack of industrial base.[00:43:57]
Core CPI Citation1.9%Example metric cited by technocrats disconnected from actual public distress.[01:00:03]
Defense Executive Cap$5 MillionHypothetical strict salary cap to enforce capital allocation toward actual bullets.[01:03:10]