Why the Permian Basin won’t replace lost Middle East oil, with Jai Singh and Matthew Bernstein | 26 Aug 2026 | Let’s Talk Energy
1. Executive Briefing (TL;DR)
- Capital Discipline Prevents Supply Surge: Despite price volatility and geopolitical uncertainty, Permian operators are refusing to over-react with aggressive rig additions. Output is expected to grow by only ~170,000 bpd (~3%) in 2026, exiting near 6.87M bpd [00:02:34].
- Substantial Tier-1 Commercial Inventory: The Permian retains ~16 years of remaining high-quality, sub-$55/bbl break-even drilling locations (PV20 basis) at current execution paces [00:04:26].
References
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