Quarterly Market Update: 2Q 2026 | 13 Jul 2026 | Goldman Sachs
Date of recording: June 29, 2026## 1. Executive Briefing (TL;DR)
- The Core Thesis: US macroeconomic growth remains highly resilient to recent geopolitical and financial shocks, driven by structural momentum in manufacturing, AI infrastructure build-outs, and a steady labor market. Concurrently, persistent sticky core inflation is projected to keep the Federal Reserve's target interest rates higher for longer through 2027.
- Top Key Takeaways:
- Geopolitical headwinds, notably the 2026 Iran conflict, failed to derail economic expansion; markets rebounded fully, recovering all S&P 500 losses [00:07].
- The Goldman Sachs Investment Strategy Group lowered its 12-month US recession probability from 25% down to 20% due to receding oil prices and easing financial conditions [].
References
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