"the words peace and deal are doing a lot of very heavy lifting in that particular sentence... what is being flagged here... looks to be a memorandum of understanding or I would call it a memorandum of misunderstanding" - Michael Every [00:00:00]
"what you see and what you get in the Middle East can sometimes be extremely very different things." - Michael Every [00:07:31]
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"we don't have triple-digit oil right now... China has massively reduced its imports... China has shown look we can ride this out for up to six months so if you're ever going to try this with us you better be able to ride this for six months not six weeks" - Michael Every [00:50:29]
"nationalism and mercantalism is now dyed into the wool everyone can see that this is the path forward whether we like it or not... the one world system is collapsing and it's now going to be reordered" - Michael Every [01:01:27]
"every president is in the final legacy phase... if he loses them [the midterms] the only way out is through you dial it up." - Michael Every [01:04:47]
Speakers & Credentials
Adam Taggart: Founder and Host of Thoughtful Money. Facilitates deep-dive macroeconomic and geopolitical discussions with leading financial experts.
Michael Every: Global Strategist at Rabobank. A macro-analyst known for prescient, contrarian calls predicting the end of the rules-based order, the return of mercantilism, and the geopolitical restructuring of global supply chains.
1. Executive Summary
The Illusion of Immediate Peace: The newly announced US-Iran "peace deal" is heavily scrutinized by Michael Every, who characterizes it as a highly improbable immediate solution [00:02:16], noting the agreement is more likely a 60-day pause conveniently aligned with the US midterm elections [00:26:40].
Regional Restructuring Over Rhetoric: Irrespective of the diplomatic headlines, Gulf Coast countries (GCC) are fundamentally permanently altering their strategies, abandoning reliance on the Strait of Hormuz to aggressively build alternative pipelines and defense networks [00:10:19].
The Nuclear Sticking Point: A verifiable agreement where Iran relinquishes its nuclear ambitions is deemed less than 50% likely; without this, any deal is temporary and will inevitably collapse [00:18:24].
The US-China Proxy Leverage: The Middle Eastern conflict operates as a secondary front in the US-China economic war; China's ability to artificially suppress its oil demand for up to 6 months has forced the US to recalculate its strategic timelines [00:50:29].
The Irreversible Era of Mercantilism: The discussion concretely marks the death of one-world globalism, forecasting a future dominated by regional blocs, militarized supply chains, and a "Monroe Doctrine 2.0" where the US aggressively secures its Western Hemisphere supply lines [01:01:27].
2. Chronological Table of Contents
[00:00:00] Introduction & The "Memorandum of Misunderstanding"
[00:04:45] Middle Eastern Realpolitik: Negotiating with a Fractured Regime
[00:09:40] The GCC Response & Stacked Infrastructure Plan B's
[00:15:15] The Nuclear Table Stakes & Deal Probabilities
[00:20:50] Reopening the Strait of Hormuz & The 60-Day Midterm Timeline
[00:28:08] Hezbollah, Israel, and the Proxy War Dilemma
[00:37:38] The Ledger of Damage: Iran's Economy vs. Ideological Survival
[00:46:28] US Strategic Restraint & China's Oil Demand Buffer
[00:52:16] Monroe Doctrine 2.0 & Latin American Political Shifts
[00:56:44] De-dollarization Risks & The Geopolitical Irony of Stablecoins
[01:01:07] Bottom Line Vectors: Defense, Commodities, and Splintering Supply Chains
3. Detailed Thematic Summary
The "Memorandum of Misunderstanding" & Domestic Timelines
The Facade of Deal Finality: Taggart notes that Trump announced the US-Iran peace deal just two hours prior, to be formally signed in Europe in 5 days [00:01:48]. Every strongly pushes back on the permanence of this, calling it a "memorandum of misunderstanding" since the Iranian Fars news agency claims the deal is identical to the one Trump previously vehemently rejected and bombed them over [00:03:30].
The "Prisoner Exchange" Midterm Strategy: The agreement initiates a 60-day negotiation window. Every frames this as a highly tactical domestic political play. Rather than achieving structural peace, this 60-day window (taking us to late summer) and a potential subsequent 60/90-day extension simply kicks the can past the November US midterm elections [00:26:40]. In the short term, releasing a backlog of oil ships drops energy prices prior to voters hitting the polls, acting as a geopolitical "hostage exchange" for lower domestic gas prices [00:27:30].
Trump's Hegemonic Contingency: The deal is incredibly fragile. Trump explicitly told the NYT that if negotiations fail after 60 days, he will resume bombing and may demand a 20% cut of the Middle East's oil as a fee for US oversight [00:04:22].
Realpolitik, Regional Restructuring & Plan B Pipelines
The Permanent Shift in the GCC: Every argues that regardless of a signed paper, the Middle East dynamic has permanently shifted. The UAE and Saudi Arabia are not returning to a pre-war reliance on the Strait of Hormuz. They are actively dusting off "Plan B" infrastructure to circumvent the chokepoint, looking to a new pipeline to Fujairah by 2027 and alternative routes through Jordan, Syria, or Turkey [00:10:19], [00:51:48].
Multilateral Deterrence: The region will respond defensively. A potential structural outcome is the Gulf States collectively paying for a Western naval flotilla to perpetually police the Gulf, transforming any future Iranian aggression from a bilateral conflict into a war against 15 nations [00:24:06]. This creates a "porcupine defense" strategy bolstered by heavy investments in anti-drone technology [00:24:51].
The Failure of the Abraham Accords Expansion: Trump's ambition to have all states sign the Abraham Accords concurrently is met with deep skepticism ("two pigs going past the window" [00:12:05]). The architectural battle remains fierce: the US wants the IMEC (India Middle East Economic Corridor) to bypass China, while China and the BRICS are pushing systems like the mBridge alternative payment structure utilizing Saudi Arabia [00:12:29], [00:13:58].
Historical Context: Deep Power Ironies & Parallels
The Restraint of Superpowers: Taggart notes the ultimate irony of the conflict: The US could end the war in an hour by physically decimating Iran's Kharg Island oil infrastructure or bombing power plants, but chooses not to due to a moral and humanitarian framework [00:45:05]. Every highlights that this restraint defines the boundaries of the conflict to adversaries like China. The US also possesses the capability to drop specialized nuclear weapons on reinforced underground uranium facilities like "Pickaxe Mountain" but holds back [00:46:06].
The "Soviet Perestroika" Paradigm: If an agreement holds, Every theorizes a historical parallel akin to Soviet Perestroika or China's economic opening. The Iranian IRGC claims the US agreed to a $300 billion reconstruction fund [00:36:00]. Every suggests this capital (likely Gulf and private money, not direct US taxpayer funds) could be used to "hollow out" the Iranian regime economically. The theocratic political shell remains, but the underlying economy integrates with global capital, mimicking the West's investment into the Chinese Communist Party [00:36:40].
US-China Chess Match & The Monroe Doctrine 2.0 Pivot
The Upstream vs. Downstream Chokehold: The Middle East conflict is viewed as a proxy test between US and Chinese supply chains. The US controls upstream raw materials (energy), while China controls downstream industrial production [00:48:15].
China's 6-Month Bluff: China neutralized the US's leverage in the energy shock by massively drawing down its domestic oil stocks and utilizing its private refineries to halt imports, preventing triple-digit oil prices and proving they can absorb a shock for up to 6 months [00:50:29].
NAPFA & Nearshoring: Realizing China's resilience, the US is pivoting toward complete hemispheric dominance. Every references a hypothetical "NAPFA" (North American Petroleum and Hydrocarbons Trading Hub Association), uniting the US, Canada, Mexico, Venezuela, and Guyana to create a fully self-sufficient energy bloc [00:49:04].
Latin American Realignment: The "Monroe Doctrine 2.0" is accelerating. Geopolitical maneuvers are tightening around Cuba and Venezuela [00:53:51]. Furthermore, global partners are aligning; Mark Carney in Canada has pivoted from pushing a "new world order with China" to aggressively seeking a US trade deal, while Japan is eyeing critical mineral investments and sovereign US military bases in Greenland [00:55:45].
The Reference Vault
4. Data & Figures
Data Point
Value
Context
Timestamp
Pending Agreement Signature
5 days
Time until the US and Iran formalize the deal in Europe.
Context & Synthesis: Every uses this framework to describe a diplomatic scenario where two adversarial entities announce a deal fundamentally interpreted in entirely opposing ways for domestic consumption. While the US trumpets pacification, Iran broadcasts a capitulation by the West. It is the tactical use of strategic ambiguity, designed not to solve the core issue (uranium) but to buy time, alter market sentiment, and secure near-term political optics before the inevitable structural collapse of the agreement.
Context & Synthesis: This model frames geopolitical de-escalations strictly through the lens of domestic electoral calendars. Rather than seeking lasting peace, the US initiates 60-day cascading extensions to release a backlog of oil, artificially suppressing gas prices exactly as voters head to the November midterm polls. It is geopolitics subjugated to the domestic ballot box.
Reverse Perestroika / "The Hollowed Out Regime" [00:36:40]
Context & Synthesis: Borrowing from the Soviet collapse and China's economic opening, Every posits a scenario where the US and Gulf states inject massive capital (e.g., $300 billion) into Iran. The strategic irony is profound: Instead of violent regime change, the West allows the ideological, theocratic shell to remain in power, but structurally hollows out their aggression by tying their survival entirely to global economic integration.
Context & Synthesis: Israel's fundamental strategic shift post-October 7th. They no longer wait for a proxy entity (like Hezbollah) to fire; if they see the enemy merely taking a "sniper position" or rearming, they strike immediately. This breaks the traditional US-brokered rules of engagement where the US demands its allies keep their hands tied during delicate negotiations.
Monroe Doctrine 2.0 & Nearshoring (NAPFA) [00:49:04]
Context & Synthesis: The realization that the global "rules-based order" is dead. In response to China proving it can withstand upstream energy shocks, the US shifts to absolute hemispheric consolidation. By locking down a unified block of critical resources across the Americas (Canada, US, Mexico, Venezuela, Guyana), the US creates a fortress economy immune to Eurasian blockades, fundamentally fracturing global supply chains into regionalized, weaponized spheres.
Context: When asked about Trump's claim that everyone in the Middle East will quickly sign the Abraham Accords and stop all wars, Every literally looks out his window and jokes that he "just saw two pigs going past the window." It vividly underscores the vast disconnect between White House political theater and the deeply entrenched blood-feuds and realpolitik of the Middle East.
Context: To explain the absurdity and danger of US-Iran negotiations, Every asks the audience to imagine an adversarial nation negotiating a binding treaty with Gavin Newsom. Newsom is eloquent and makes grand promises, but possesses zero federal authority to execute them. This perfectly illustrates the fractured nature of Iran's leadership—the US may strike a deal with political figureheads, while the hardline IRGC simply ignores it and continues firing missiles.
The Restraint of Kharg Island and Pickaxe Mountain [00:45:05]
Context: Taggart brings up the brutal reality that the US possesses the military capability to end the war in an hour by obliterating Kharg Island's oil infrastructure, bombing power plants, or dropping specialized nukes on the underground uranium facility at Pickaxe Mountain. Every agrees, highlighting the profound moral irony: the US is perceived as losing the conflict precisely because its moral frameworks prevent it from utilizing its overwhelming, civilization-ending power, a restraint adversaries explicitly weaponize.
Context: To explain why the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz didn't lead to $200 oil, Every notes that China didn't magically transition to electric vehicles overnight. Instead, quasi-private Chinese refineries looked at high global prices vs. subsidized domestic rates and simply chose to burn through their massive strategic reserves rather than import at a loss. This anecdote proves China has successfully built a 6-month buffer against US-controlled upstream energy blockades.
7. References & Recommendations
Geopolitical Entities & Institutions
Abraham Accords: [00:11:49] Referenced as Trump's ultimate, yet highly unrealistic, goal for total Middle Eastern diplomatic normalization.
IMEC (India Middle East Economic Corridor): [00:12:25] The US-backed political economy architecture aiming to connect India to Europe, effectively bypassing China's Belt and Road. Iran remains a direct obstacle to this.
mBridge Project: [00:13:58] A Chinese-led alternative payment system aimed at bypassing SWIFT and the US Dollar, explicitly noted as recently involving Saudi Arabia.
GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council): [00:06:42] The political and economic alliance of Arab states that are actively building infrastructure to circumvent Iran's control over shipping lanes.
Geography & Infrastructure
Strait of Hormuz: [00:10:19] The critical global energy chokepoint heavily disrupted by the conflict.
Fujairah / UAE Pipelines: [00:10:25] Alternative, non-Hormuz energy exit routes the UAE is aggressively developing.
Pickaxe Mountain: [00:46:15] A deeply reinforced underground Iranian military base where uranium is developed, immune to standard conventional bombing.
Kharg Island: [00:45:05] Iran's primary oil export terminal, completely vulnerable to US kinetic strikes if the US chose to act unconstrained.
Greenland: [00:55:45] Referenced as a target for US sovereign military bases and Japanese critical mineral investments under the new Monroe Doctrine.
People & Media
Fars News Agency: [00:03:16] The Iranian IRGC-affiliated news network pushing the narrative that the US completely capitulated in the deal negotiations.
Benjamin Netanyahu: [00:31:28] Discussed regarding his immense political vulnerability; forced restraint by the US against Hezbollah could lead to his electoral defeat.
Mark Carney: [00:55:45] Former Governor of the Banks of Canada and England, noted for massively pivoting his rhetoric from embracing China to seeking a protectionist US trade deal.
Brent Johnson (Dollar Milkshake Theory): [00:56:44] Cited by Taggart to frame the debate around the resilience of the US dollar despite the rise of alternative BRICS payment rails.
Florence Schmidt & Joe Deau: [00:21:54] Rabobank's internal energy experts, referenced by Every for deeper dives into the structural shifts in the global oil curve.
8. The Bottomline (by AI)
The era of seamless, one-world globalization has officially terminated, replaced by a hyper-regionalized mercantilist scramble. This purported "peace deal" is a tactical mirage—a domestic political pause to flush out oil reserves ahead of US midterms, rather than a structural resolution to Iran's nuclear timeline. For operators and allocators, the actionable vector is clear: capital must immediately reorient toward the physical "Plan B" infrastructure being built across the globe—domestic supply chains, robust regionalized energy grids (like a unified Americas energy bloc), and defense technologies. If the US is perceived to have surrendered the Middle East, expect an accelerated, aggressive pivot to secure the Western Hemisphere (Monroe Doctrine 2.0), making commodities, near-shored industrial bases, and anti-drone defense the most critical strategic assets of the next decade.
Jul 13, 2026
Yanis Varoufakis | Closing Keynote | Thursday 18th June 2026 | Web3 Foundation
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Iranian Demographic Scale
90 million
Total population of Iran, the vast majority of which do not share the regime's theocratic, isolationist ideology.