Why Oil Still Hasn't Exploded... But Could Soon | Ninepoint Partners

Nuggets

Why Oil Still Hasn't Exploded... But Could Soon | Ninepoint Partners | 10 Jul 2026 · Nuggets

Global Shipping & Geopolitics
- Baseline Strait of Hormuz Volume: 50 ships entering, 50 ships exiting daily under normal operations [00:00:28].
- Strait Disruption Baseline: 1 inbound vessel entered the strait overnight [00:00:34].
- Stranded Vessel Inventory: 109 non-Iranian oil vessels were stuck in the strait prior to its opening, down to 1 vessel remaining [00:00:40].
- Curtailed Middle Eastern Production: Pegged at approximately 8.6 million barrels per day [00:01:18].
- Net Export Loss: Middle Eastern exports down roughly 4.6 to 4.7 million barrels per day even after accounting for Fujairah and Red Sea workarounds [00:02:51].
- Mine Hazards: 80 active mines identified in the middle of the shipping lane [00:01:45].
Strategic Reserves & Inventories
- US SPR Inventory: Drawn down down to 319 million barrels total [00:02:57].
- US SPR Absolute Floor: 300 million barrels recognized as the absolute minimum operating level by internal policymakers [00:03:10].
- Flexible Buffer Remaining: 19 million barrels left before hitting the operational limit [00:03:29].
- Weekly SPR Drawdown: 8 million barrels drawn down over the trailing week [00:03:29].
Chinese Macro Demand Indicators
- Forfeited Import Volume: 320 million barrels of dropped crude imports between April and June [00:04:24].
- June Year-over-Year Import Deficit: Chinese imports down 4.9 million barrels per day year-over-year [00:04:32].
Canadian Infrastructure Runway
- Proposed Trunkline Capacity: New pipeline proposal backstopped for 1,000,000+ barrels per day [00:06:04].
- Target Commercialization Date: Full on-stream target of 2033–2034 [00:06:18].
- Near-Term Project Optimization: Incremental expansions adding 350,000 to 400,000 barrels per day [00:08:12].
- South Bow Prairie Connector / Bridger Capacity: 504,000 barrels per day initial capacity, expandable to 900,000 barrels per day [00:08:19].
- South Bow Project In-Service Date: Projected on-stream target of roughly 2029 [00:08:19].
Valuation & Equity Metrics
- Marginal Cost of Supply Floor: At least $70 per barrel required to balance global non-OPEC production [00:07:24].
- Implied Equity Pricing: Upstream oil equities currently discount an implied long-term crude price of roughly $60 per barrel [00:07:40].

Why Oil Still Hasn't Exploded... But Could Soon | Ninepoint Partners | 10 Jul 2026

1. Executive Briefing (TL;DR)

References

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Why Oil Still Hasn't Exploded... But Could Soon | Ninepoint Partners | 10 Jul 2026

1. Executive Briefing (TL;DR)

References

More nuggets

Ambit Asset Management: The Storm is similar. The Vessel is not | 17 Jul 2026 | Ambit Private Limited

How Earnings, Volatility, and AI Capex Are Affecting US Markets | 17 Jul 2026 | The Markets

Midyear Investment Outlook 2026 | The Power of Endurance by Outerblue Convictions | 7 Jul 2026 | Amundi

2. Speaker Profiles & Context

3. Thematic Deep Dives

The Strait of Hormuz Standoff and Logistics Bottlenecks [00:00:14 - 00:02:56]

The Depletion of Global Safety Buffers [00:02:57 - 00:04:14]

The Chinese Demand Inflection and Refinement Squeeze [00:04:15 - 00:05:45]

The Structural Turnaround in Canadian Energy Architecture [00:05:46 - 00:09:35]

4. Forward Looking Indicators & Risks

5. Data & Macro Matrix

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