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Executive Summary

  • Executive Summary
  • Key Takeaways
  • Detailed Summary by Topic
  • Data & Figures
  • Stories & Anecdotes
  • References & Recommendations
  • Actionable Next Steps

On this page

  • Executive Summary
  • Key Takeaways
  • Detailed Summary by Topic
  • Data & Figures
  • Stories & Anecdotes
  • References & Recommendations
  • Actionable Next Steps
US / West/February 15, 2026/10 min read/youtu.be

"Globalization Has Failed" Declaration By USA = MASSIVE Change Is Ahead | Michael Every | Adam Taggart

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"What we called the liberal world order, which was not liberal, it was not the whole world, and it was not very orderly... is really being reinvented in real time. And that means massive structural change in almost every dimension of our lives." — Michael Every [00:01](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6sTkt0dtxF4&t=1s)

References

  1. Original source (youtu.be)

Disclaimer: Orignal content owned by or sourced from third parties. It does not represent the views of 'Nuggets' platform or it's team. AI is used extensively across this platform including for summaries. Accuracy is not guaranteed, there can be mistakes. Any info or content on this platform is not a financial, legal, or investment advice. Do your own research. Refer for complete disclosures:- Terms of Use · Full Disclaimer

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Published
February 15, 2026
Read time
10 min read
Progress0%

"We have spoken about this as being a game of Risk... The winning strategy is you hold your territory or your continent... but to deny your opponent one key territory from their continent." — Michael Every [05:10](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6sTkt0dtxF4&t=310s) (On US Geostrategy regarding Taiwan and Ukraine)

"If you specialize in the production where you have the comparative advantage... mathematically the two countries can maximize output... But Ricardo himself presumed nobody would ever take their money and move it abroad because it's not patriotic." — Michael Every [24:45](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6sTkt0dtxF4&t=1485s)

"Volatility is now baked into the cake... You can trade short term just looking at lines on a screen... but if you want to understand which direction those lines will ultimately be moving, I think a lot of them are going to be driven by these rotating wheels [of geopolitics]." — Michael Every [47:40](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6sTkt0dtxF4&t=2860s)

"The best deal [Europe] can make is to accept that you are a very second fiddle within the American system... within that more balanced system... which is not the liberal world order." — Michael Every [36:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6sTkt0dtxF4&t=2160s)


Key Segments

  • 0:00 - Key Geopolitical Trends Overview
  • 4:07 - Japanese Election and Taka Ichi's Victory
  • 5:44 - Japan's Economic Shifts: Inflation and Debt
  • 6:46 - Global Financial Implications from Japan
  • 8:16 - Japan-China-Taiwan Geopolitics and US Ties
  • 10:09 - Monroe Doctrine 2.0 and Fortress Western Hemisphere
  • 12:39 - Potential US Deals with China/Russia on Taiwan/Ukraine
  • 16:18 - Taiwan's Political Movement for Reintegration
  • 17:52 - China's Long Game and Taiwan's Possible Choice
  • 18:18 - Winning Hearts and Minds in Taiwan
  • 19:59 - US National Security Strategy in Latin America
  • 22:55 - Distinguishing New Model from Traditional Mercantilism
  • 26:29 - Personal Views on the New Model's Benefits
  • 30:35 - Globalism vs Mercantilism: Star Trek vs Star Wars
  • 32:29 - David Ricardo and Comparative Advantage
  • 36:40 - Trump's Method to the Madness
  • 41:22 - State's Thumb on the Scale in Mercantilism
  • 46:25 - Capital Flows and Trade Deals
  • 47:27 - Best Positioned Player: America's Strengthening Position
  • 55:42 - Europe's Direction Over the Next Decade
  • 59:54 - Strategic Advice for Europe
  • 1:02:41 - Success Likelihood of Donroe Doctrine
  • 1:04:51 - Fortress America's Growth Prospects
  • 1:06:24 - Countries Voluntarily Becoming US Territories
  • 1:09:54 - Commodities' Brighter Future
  • 1:11:57 - Dollar's Waxing and Waning Prospects
  • 1:13:54 - Stablecoins as a Dollar Game-Changer
  • 1:15:31 - Investing Themes and Volatility Advice
  • 1:18:20 - Where to Follow Michael Every
  • 1:21:46 - Parting Counsel for a Crazy Year

Executive Summary

In this discussion [00:00], Global Strategist Michael Every argues that the era of globalization is definitively over, being replaced by a volatile era of Neo-Mercantilism and "Fortress" economics. He predicts a shift where the United States retreats from being the global policeman to focusing on a "Don-Ro Doctrine" (a modernized Monroe Doctrine) [10:27](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6sTkt0dtxF4&t=627s), aiming to integrate the Western Hemisphere into a self-sustaining industrial and resource bloc. Every asserts that to re-industrialize, the US must restrict capital flows and force a rebalancing of trade [49:42](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6sTkt0dtxF4&t=2982s), which will cause massive friction with traditional allies like Europe and adversaries like China.


Key Takeaways

  • Globalization has Failed: The world is moving away from free-market globalism toward state-directed economies (Neo-Mercantilism) where national security and domestic stability trump economic efficiency [00:40](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6sTkt0dtxF4&t=40s).
  • The Rise of "Fortress Americas": The US is likely to pivot toward a strategy of integrating North and South America (the "Don-Ro Doctrine") to secure resources and labor, reducing reliance on trans-oceanic supply chains [21:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6sTkt0dtxF4&t=1260s).
  • Japan is the Canary in the Coal Mine: Changes in Japanese politics (specifically the rise of nationalist sentiments) and the end of their deflationary era are leading indicators for global shifts [04:14](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6sTkt0dtxF4&t=254s). Rising JGB yields could destabilize global treasuries [06:50](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6sTkt0dtxF4&t=410s).
  • Mercantilism vs. Free Trade: The US will move from being the consumer of last resort to a producer, using tariffs and capital controls to force domestic investment, even if it creates short-term inflation [24:06](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6sTkt0dtxF4&t=1446s).
  • Europe’s Decline: Europe is viewed as the biggest loser in this new order, having relied on US security and Chinese demand [36:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6sTkt0dtxF4&t=2160s). They face a future of being "second fiddle" with mandated higher defense spending [55:43](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6sTkt0dtxF4&t=3343s).
  • Volatility is the New Normal: Stable, low-volatility markets are a relic of the past. Investors must prepare for extreme swings driven by political decisions rather than pure market fundamentals [47:40](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6sTkt0dtxF4&t=2860s).
  • Stablecoins as a Tool: US Dollar stablecoins may play a key role in "re-dollarizing" the world at a grassroots level, bypassing hostile central banks in emerging markets [01:13:54](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6sTkt0dtxF4&t=4434s).

Detailed Summary by Topic

1. The Japanese Pivot & Global Re-Armament [04:05](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6sTkt0dtxF4&t=245s)

Michael highlights the Japanese political landscape as a critical leading indicator. He discusses a scenario involving Sanae Takaichi (a "Thatcher-esque" figure) winning power, signaling a shift toward nationalism, increased defense spending, and standing up to China [08:18](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6sTkt0dtxF4&t=498s).

  • Economic Impact: Japan is no longer in deflation; inflation is sticking [05:42](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6sTkt0dtxF4&t=342s). The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is raising rates, which impacts the long end of the yield curve.
  • The Carry Trade Unwind: If Japan loses control of its bond market (JGBs), the massive "yen carry trade" unwinds, which could force a sell-off in US Treasuries and destabilize global finance [07:11](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6sTkt0dtxF4&t=431s).
  • Strategic Alliance: A re-militarized Japan is essential for the US strategy to contain China, requiring deeper integration between the US and Japanese economies (e.g., shipbuilding) [09:20](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6sTkt0dtxF4&t=560s).

2. The "Don-Ro Doctrine" (Monroe Doctrine 2.0) [10:27](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6sTkt0dtxF4&t=627s)

Every coins the term "Don-Ro Doctrine" (referencing Donald Trump/Monroe Doctrine) to describe a potential US retreat to the Western Hemisphere.

  • The Strategy: The US aims to build a "Fortress Americas," utilizing Canadian resources, Mexican manufacturing, and South American labor/commodities [10:44](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6sTkt0dtxF4&t=644s).
  • The Goal: To create a self-sufficient industrial base that does not rely on crossing the Pacific or Atlantic oceans, reducing vulnerability to conflicts in Europe or Asia [22:36](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6sTkt0dtxF4&t=1356s).
  • Political Shifts: This explains US interventions or changing relations with countries like Venezuela and potentially Argentina, viewing them as essential resource partners rather than just political adversaries [20:15](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6sTkt0dtxF4&t=1215s).

3. Mercantilism vs. The Liberal World Order [32:45](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6sTkt0dtxF4&t=1965s)

The conversation deconstructs the economic theory of David Ricardo (Comparative Advantage) versus the reality of Mercantilism.

  • The Flaw in Globalism: Ricardo assumed capital would stay domestic due to "patriotism." In reality, capital chased the lowest wages abroad (China), hollowing out the US middle class [35:36](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6sTkt0dtxF4&t=2136s).
  • Neo-Mercantilism: This isn't just about hoarding gold; it's about state-directed capitalism. The US is now adopting this to rebuild its industrial base [38:49](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6sTkt0dtxF4&t=2329s). This involves tariffs, subsidies (like the CHIPS Act), and directing capital into the US rather than letting it flow out freely.
  • Merkel-cantilism: Every criticizes Europe (specifically under Merkel) for pretending to be liberal free traders while actually running massive trade surpluses by suppressing domestic wages and relying on US defense subsidies [23:42](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6sTkt0dtxF4&t=1422s).

4. The Losers: Europe and China [55:43](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6sTkt0dtxF4&t=3343s)

Every argues that a re-industrializing US is bad news for export-dependent economies.

  • Europe: Europe has run a $2.6 trillion trade surplus with the US since the Cold War [50:04](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6sTkt0dtxF4&t=3004s). The US is now demanding this imbalance end. Europe must pay for its own defense (moving from 1% to 3.5% of GDP) and accept a subordinate economic role [01:00:18](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6sTkt0dtxF4&t=3618s).
  • China: The US strategy is to deny China the "comparative advantage" of being the world's factory. By moving supply chains to the Americas (near-shoring/friend-shoring), the US undermines China’s economic leverage [13:47](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6sTkt0dtxF4&t=827s).

5. Investment Implications & The Future of the Dollar [01:10:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6sTkt0dtxF4&t=4200s)

  • Capital Controls: To force re-industrialization, the US may implement forms of capital controls or incentives that make it difficult for money to leave the US, forcing investment in domestic factories and infrastructure [54:22](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6sTkt0dtxF4&t=3262s).
  • Commodities: Resources are critical in a fragmented world. However, Every warns that governments may cap the upside of commodity prices (nationalization or price controls) because they are too strategically important to be left to the free market [01:10:54](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6sTkt0dtxF4&t=4254s).
  • The Dollar: Despite talk of de-dollarization, the US may re-assert dollar dominance by forcing allies to hold dollars and buy US goods [01:12:55](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6sTkt0dtxF4&t=4375s), and potentially through the adoption of US Dollar Stablecoins, which allow citizens in failing economies to bypass their local broken currencies [01:13:54](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6sTkt0dtxF4&t=4434s).

Data & Figures

Data PointValueContext
Japanese Economy~$5 TrillionStill a massive economy; its shift from deflation to inflation matters globally [06:35](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6sTkt0dtxF4&t=395s).
Europe Trade Surplus$2.6 TrillionCumulative surplus Europe has run with the US since the end of the Cold War [50:04](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6sTkt0dtxF4&t=3004s).
Defense Spending2% to 3.5%The shift in GDP spending required from US allies (specifically Japan and Europe) [16:06](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6sTkt0dtxF4&t=966s).
Hypothetical Yield

Stories & Anecdotes

  • David Ricardo’s Cloth and Port: Michael uses the classic economic example of England making cloth and Portugal making wine (port) [33:45](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6sTkt0dtxF4&t=2025s). He explains that while the math of trading these works, it relies on the false assumption that the capital (money/machinery) won't move. In the modern world, the capital moved to where labor was cheapest, breaking the social contract of the model.
  • The Game of Risk: Michael compares geopolitics to the board game Risk [05:11](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6sTkt0dtxF4&t=311s). The strategy isn't just to hold your continent (North America), but to deny your opponent control of their entire continent. This explains US support for Taiwan (blocking China) and Ukraine (blocking Russia) even while trying to retreat to "Fortress Americas."
  • The "Banana Republic" Inversion: Michael suggests a modernized, inverted version of the old "Yankee Imperialism" [20:59](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6sTkt0dtxF4&t=1259s). Instead of just extracting cheap resources, the US might encourage Latin American nations to build local industries (making T-shirts locally) to create regional stability and reduce migration, while the US focuses on high-end manufacturing.

References & Recommendations

People Referenced:

  • David Ricardo [32:45](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6sTkt0dtxF4&t=1965s): Classical economist, father of "Comparative Advantage" theory.
  • Sanae Takaichi [04:14](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6sTkt0dtxF4&t=254s): Japanese politician, cited as a potential nationalist leader (the "Iron Lady" of Japan).
  • Mario Draghi [57:26](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6sTkt0dtxF4&t=3446s): Former ECB President, referenced regarding his report on European competitiveness and the need for massive spending.
  • Brent Johnson [01:12:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6sTkt0dtxF4&t=4320s): CEO of Santiago Capital, creator of the "Dollar Milkshake Theory" (referenced regarding stablecoins).
  • Angela Merkel [23:42](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6sTkt0dtxF4&t=1422s): Former German Chancellor, cited as the architect of "Merkel-cantilism."
  • Donald Trump [10:27](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6sTkt0dtxF4&t=627s): Referenced regarding protectionist/mercantilist policies.

Concepts & Theories:

  • Neo-Mercantilism [00:31](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6sTkt0dtxF4&t=31s): Economic nationalism for the purpose of building state power.
  • Ricardian Equivalence/Advantage [33:07](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6sTkt0dtxF4&t=1987s): The economic theory of free trade.
  • The Draghi Report [57:26](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6sTkt0dtxF4&t=3446s): A report on the future of European economic competitiveness.

Speakers & Credentials

  • Host: Adam Taggart [00:24](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6sTkt0dtxF4&t=24s): Founder of Thoughtful Money, a platform dedicated to preserving and growing wealth through macro-level insights and expert analysis.
  • Guest: Michael Every [00:54](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6sTkt0dtxF4&t=54s): Global Strategist at Rabobank. He is known for his prescient geopolitical and economic analysis, specifically regarding the breakdown of globalization, the rise of neo-mercantilism, and the intersection of politics and markets.

Actionable Next Steps

  1. Prepare for Volatility [01:15:33](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6sTkt0dtxF4&t=4533s): Accept that market volatility is "baked in the cake." Move away from passive strategies that assume geopolitical stability (like the traditional 60/40 split) and consider active management or hedging.
  2. Monitor Japanese Yields (JGBs) [06:50](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6sTkt0dtxF4&t=410s): Watch the Bank of Japan closely. If Japanese yields spike, it could trigger a global liquidity event as Japanese investors repatriate cash from US and European bond markets.
  3. Invest in "Fortress America" [01:05:36](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6sTkt0dtxF4&t=3936s): Consider investments that benefit from US re-industrialization, such as domestic infrastructure, defense, and manufacturing, as well as resources within the Western Hemisphere (Canada/Latin America).
  4. Be Wary of "Unlimited" Commodity Upside [01:11:05](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6sTkt0dtxF4&t=4265s): While commodities are essential, be aware of the political risk. Governments may cap prices or nationalize assets if resource costs threaten national stability.
  5. Explore Stablecoins [01:13:54](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6sTkt0dtxF4&t=4434s): Keep an eye on US Dollar stablecoins as a mechanism for the dollar to maintain dominance in emerging markets, even as central banks try to diversify.

Full Episode: The AI Industrial Revolution | 2 Jun 2026 | Naval and Nivi

Context: Host Naval Ravikant introduces a roundtable discussion on the "AI Industrial Revolution" with three frontier deep tech and software founders who build their own physical factories and tech infrastructure from first principles rath…

2%
Example used for low but stable returns in a state-directed infrastructure investment scenario [07:44](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6sTkt0dtxF4&t=464s).
Timeline2026The "future" year referenced in the discussion as a benchmark for daily volatile headlines [01:22:46](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6sTkt0dtxF4&t=4966s).