Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2026 | UBS

1. TL;DR

• Equities remain the definitive long-term wealth creator, significantly outperforming bonds and bills since 1900, though investors must now navigate record-high US market concentration, evolving industry mixes, and the nuanced, often overstated, role of gold as an inflation hedge.

---

2. Key Findings

1. US equity market share rose from 15% in 1899 to 62% by 2026, representing unparalleled global dominance (p. 5).
2. 70% of current US market value resides in industries that were non-existent or negligible in 1900 (p. 6).
3. Equities outperformed all other asset classes in every country with a continuous 126-year history (p. 7).
4. Developed markets (8.5% p.a.) significantly outperformed emerging markets (6.9% p.a.) over the long haul (p. 8). EM outperformed since 1960. (p.8, Figure 17)
5. Real returns for stocks and bonds are historically highest during periods of low inflation and high growth (p. 9).
6. Momentum remains the most robust style factor, yielding a 7.7% annual premium in the US since 1900 (p. 14).