Fed in July: A Weaker Case for Hiking | 29 Jul 2026 | Thoughts on the Market

1. Executive Briefing (TL;DR)

• Top Key Takeaways:

  • Fed Hold Expected in July: Morgan Stanley expects the Federal Reserve to hold the federal funds target rate steady at 3.50%–3.75% during the July FOMC meeting [00:00:33].
  • Weakening Hike Case: The empirical case for rate hikes in July is less persuasive than in June due to moderating payroll growth and underlying softness in goods/housing inflation [00:01:02].