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Adapting to rupture

  • Adapting to rupture
  • Higher structural deficits may spur home bias
  • Balance higher-returning assets with those that can add resilience
  • Private and alternative assets require more selectivity
  • Strategic asset allocation can benefit from gold and private assets

On this page

  • Adapting to rupture
  • Higher structural deficits may spur home bias
  • Balance higher-returning assets with those that can add resilience
  • Private and alternative assets require more selectivity
  • Strategic asset allocation can benefit from gold and private assets
Equity/April 21, 2026/2 min read/research-center.amundi.com

Capital Market Assumptions 2026 : Adapting to rupture (21 April, 2026) | Amundi Research

Source
Source

Amundi's 5 key findings

Adapting to rupture

  • The global economy is moving through a structural regime shift characterised by geo-economic fragmentation, climate risks from a delayed energy transition, and the increasing adoption of artificial intelligence (AI). Countries are increasingly pivoting towards strategic autonomy to adapt to this new regime.

  • This will require higher fiscal spending and produce AI-driven productivity gains that will support growth over the next three to five years. But weak policy coordination and ageing demographics are unlikely to allow for a sustained acceleration in growth over the coming decades. At the same time, inflation is becoming stickier due to structurally higher demand for energy and critical commodities as well as higher future climate-related costs.


Higher structural deficits may spur home bias

References

  1. Original source (research-center.amundi.com)

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Reading

Published
April 21, 2026
Read time
2 min read
Progress0%
  • In an era of rupture, governments will continue spending to adapt, despite their fiscal positions. This means that debt levels and long-end rates will remain structurally elevated.

  • As a result, fiscal dominance will likely become a defining feature of the next decade, as central banks focus more on debt management. Bond investors will be pushed further towards their domestic bond markets, particularly where yields are becoming more attractive. Financial flows will also affect currency dynamics, with the US dollar’s dominant role likely to be eroded gradually rather than lost abruptly.


Balance higher-returning assets with those that can add resilience

  • The 2026 CMA points to appealing long-term expected returns across most asset classes, with emerging market (EM), Japanese and European equities set to offer higher upside potential. In the long run, opportunities will be most visible across sectors and companies that can benefit from AI and the green transition.

  • The broader backdrop calls for balancing exposure to higher-returning assets, such as EM, Indian and private equities, with asset classes that can add greater resilience, including global government bonds, global investment grade credit and EM debt.


Private and alternative assets require more selectivity

  • Private assets can help enhance long-term returns, but the drivers of their performance are changing. Higher nominal discount rates are likely to cap valuation multiples, making returns less dependent on multiple expansion. Instead, they will be driven more by income and operational value creation.

  • At the asset class level, infrastructure and private credit should benefit from rising investment needs, while European private equity looks more compelling than its US counterpart due to lower valuations and investment linked to strategic autonomy.


Strategic asset allocation can benefit from gold and private assets

  • Investors must diversify to build resilience. Aggregate bonds are increasingly relevant as a key anchor for portfolios, thanks to their improved return expectations. In equities, Emerging Markets are gaining relevance, supported by higher long-term expectations.

  • Within private assets, private equity is favoured as the main growth engine, while infrastructure and private debt play a stronger role as income-generating assets. Gold will be a key strategic allocation tool, supporting both diversification and return potential.

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