Amundi's 5 key findings

Adapting to rupture

• The global economy is moving through a structural regime shift characterised by geo-economic fragmentation, climate risks from a delayed energy transition, and the increasing adoption of artificial intelligence (AI). Countries are increasingly pivoting towards strategic autonomy to adapt to this new regime.

• This will require higher fiscal spending and produce AI-driven productivity gains that will support growth over the next three to five years. But weak policy coordination and ageing demographics are unlikely to allow for a sustained acceleration in growth over the coming decades. At the same time, inflation is becoming stickier due to structurally higher demand for energy and critical commodities as well as higher future climate-related costs.

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Higher structural deficits may spur home bias