Kieran Goodwin – Private Credit Concerns (EP.494) | Capital Allocators with Ted Seides

Kieran Goodwin – Private Credit Concerns (EP.494) | Capital Allocators with Ted Seides · Nuggets

Data Point	Value	Context	Timestamp
Saba Capital AUM	$6 billion	Size of Boaz Weinstein's hedge fund manager where Kieran is a partner.	[00:00:57]
King Street AUM Growth	$4B to $22B	Asset growth during Kieran's 6-year tenure at King Street.	[00:11:14]
King Street Performance	>100%	Return generated over 6 years while the S&P 500 was flat.	[00:11:18]
Panning Capital Launch Size	$600 million	Initial capital raised for Panning Capital.	[00:13:27]
Panning Capital Peak AUM

Asset-Liability Mismatch & The Liquidity Feedback Loop: This fundamental risk framework dictates that the duration of an investment vehicle's assets must match the duration of its liabilities (investor capital). Private credit currently violates this rule by packaging illiquid, 5-to-7-year corporate loans into retail-facing interval funds and BDCs that offer 5% quarterly liquidity. Goodwin asserts that this precise mismatch guarantees a liquidity crunch during redemptions, which systematically forces asset fire sales and spirals into a true credit crunch. [00:28:43]
Retail "Tide" Heuristics (Income Sensitivity): A behavioral framework for understanding the private wealth channel. Retail investors fundamentally do not view private credit as a capital appreciation asset; they view it strictly as a mechanical income generator. Similar to their treatment of Master Limited Partnerships (MLPs) a decade ago, their loyalty is binary. If the promised yield/dividend is cut, the "tide goes out" and they instantly initiate redemptions, regardless of the underlying credit quality of the loans. [00:29:12]
The "Believe" Credit Mechanism (Reflexivity): Rooted in the etymology of the word credit (from the Latin credere, "to believe"), this model posits that credit markets are sustained primarily by collective psychological belief rather than pure structural fundamentals. The moment investors lose belief—whether due to opaque marking practices, suspected hidden leverage, or sudden dividend cuts—trust evaporates instantly. This psychological break causes rapid downward reflexivity, where the mere perception of risk aggressively destroys actual market liquidity and asset values. [00:28:02]
Misallocation of Capital / Cleansing Credit Cycles: A macroeconomic model stating that healthy capitalistic systems require periodic default cycles to flush out wildly misallocated capital. Goodwin draws a direct parallel between the early 2000s telecom fiber boom and today's venture-style lending into SaaS companies (specifically through ARR loans that lend against negative EBITDA without equity upside). Overfunding structurally flawed capital structures inevitably destroys returns, making a default cycle not just likely, but necessary to reset the market. [00:33:45]
Protect Your Downside (Defense Wins Championships): A mental model borrowed from sports coaching applied directly to investing risk. Just as a strong defense is the prerequisite for winning championships, focusing obsessively on downside protection is the prerequisite for survival and compounding returns in volatile credit markets. [00:47:02]

Kieran Goodwin – Private Credit Concerns (EP.494) | Capital Allocators with Ted Seides

References

More nuggets

BofA: From sports to pop culture: Prediction markets $1 trillion bet | 14 Jul 2026

The Bridge Ep. 13: Good Credit Holds. Bad Credit Breaks | iCapital

Risk, Resilience, and Relationships Ft. Alona Gornick (MD & Senior Investment Strategist, Churchill Asset Management) |16 Jul 2026 | S&P Global Market Intelligence

Kieran Goodwin – Private Credit Concerns (EP.494) | Capital Allocators with Ted Seides

References

More nuggets

BofA: From sports to pop culture: Prediction markets $1 trillion bet | 14 Jul 2026

The Bridge Ep. 13: Good Credit Holds. Bad Credit Breaks | iCapital

Risk, Resilience, and Relationships Ft. Alona Gornick (MD & Senior Investment Strategist, Churchill Asset Management) |16 Jul 2026 | S&P Global Market Intelligence

Speakers & Credentials

1. Executive Summary

2. Chronological Table of Contents

3. Detailed Thematic Summary

Early Career & the Shift to the Buy-Side [00:03:01]

The Panning Capital Era and Lessons Learned [00:12:31]

The Growth and Structural Vulnerabilities of Private Credit [00:21:03]

Redemption Cycles and the Retail Mindset [00:28:43]

The SaaS Trap and Impending Default Cycle [00:31:49]

Saba Capital's Strategy and Market Opportunities [00:37:43]

The Reference Vault

4. Data & Figures

5. Core Frameworks & Mental Models

6. Anecdotes

7. References & Recommendations

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