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On this page

I. Context: The 2026 Iran Crisis & Market Volatility

  • I. Context: The 2026 Iran Crisis & Market Volatility
  • II. Background: Mike Fox & Killik & Co
  • III. The "Long Media" Research Process
  • IV. Historical Crisis Management & Psychology
  • V. Market Cycle Shifts: Duration & Sectors
  • VI. Artificial Intelligence: Bubble Assessment
  • VII. The UK Market's Performance
  • VIII. Future High Conviction Convictions

On this page

  • I. Context: The 2026 Iran Crisis & Market Volatility
  • II. Background: Mike Fox & Killik & Co
  • III. The "Long Media" Research Process
  • IV. Historical Crisis Management & Psychology
  • V. Market Cycle Shifts: Duration & Sectors
  • VI. Artificial Intelligence: Bubble Assessment
  • VII. The UK Market's Performance
  • VIII. Future High Conviction Convictions
Equity/April 16, 2026/3 min read/youtu.be

Investor Insights Podcast #71 – Mike Fox, Head of Equities at Royal London Asset Management | Killik & Co

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This summary covers the Investor Insights Podcast #71 featuring Mike Fox, Head of Equities at Royal London Asset Management. The discussion focuses on navigating market crises, the shift in global investment durations, and the long-term potential of AI and the UK market.


I. Context: The 2026 Iran Crisis & Market Volatility

  • The discussion opens with market reactions to the war in Iran starting in late February 2026. [00:00:03]

References

  1. Original source (youtu.be)

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Reading

Published
April 16, 2026
Read time
3 min read
Progress0%
  • Brent crude spot prices have maintained a range around 60% higher than prices traded at the start of 2026. [00:00:21]
  • This energy supply crisis caused inflation expectations to swing from predicting rate cuts to seeing prospects of rate hikes. [00:00:37]
  • Equity markets remained resilient, recovering initial declines as news of ceasefire talks fed through. [00:00:53]
  • Investors are cautioned to stick to a repeatable process rather than making knee-jerk reactions to macro events. [00:01:26]

  • II. Background: Mike Fox & Killik & Co

    • Killik & Co is an independently owned wealth manager that opened its first office in 1989. [00:02:51]
    • Mike Fox has been a head of sustainable investment since 2003, making him one of the longest-tenured in the UK. [00:03:21]
    • The strategy focuses on identifying companies contributing to a cleaner, healthier, safer, and more inclusive society. [00:04:08]

    III. The "Long Media" Research Process

    • Fox prefers "long media," such as books and long articles, over the short-form content of social media. [00:05:36]
    • He advocates spending 15 to 20 hours reading a book on a specific country to truly understand its market. [00:06:02]
    • He cites research into the history of emerging markets like Brazil, Indonesia, and Thailand as a current focus. [00:06:15]

    IV. Historical Crisis Management & Psychology

    • Fox began his career in the late 90s, witnessing the tech bust where the NASDAQ fell 70-80%. [00:08:26]
    • Within the first nine years of his career, he saw the stock market half twice and experienced two recessions. [00:08:50]
    • He argues that EQ (Emotional Intelligence) is more important than IQ for delivering long-term investment returns. [00:13:25]
    • He recounts driving home during the 2008 financial crisis when it seemed credible that the global banking system might go bust over the weekend. [00:14:00]
    • He maintains an evidence-based optimistic view, noting the world becomes cleaner and safer generation by generation. [00:14:38]

    V. Market Cycle Shifts: Duration & Sectors

    • Markets shifted from short duration to long duration (innovation/low rates) post-2008. [00:10:10]
    • Post-COVID, the market moved back to short duration, favoring oil, mining, defense, and financials. [00:10:18]
    • The 2022/2023 interest rate environment fundamentally changed the attractiveness of the banking sector. [00:19:15]
    • Fox highlights HSBC as a high-return-on-capital growth company that outperformed many tech stocks recently. [00:19:30]

    VI. Artificial Intelligence: Bubble Assessment

    • Fox suggests that for AI to be in a true bubble comparable to the 90s, the NASDAQ would need to be 2x or 3x higher. [00:22:29]
    • He notes that prime AI plays are currently trading at ratings similar to high-quality UK mid-caps. [00:22:47]
    • Potential "overextension" is more likely in private markets, such as Anthropic’s implied $800 billion valuation. [00:23:47]
    • Anthropic is cited as having $30 billion of annualized revenue at an $800 billion implied market cap while losing money. [00:23:55]

    VII. The UK Market's Performance

    • The UK market rose 24% in 2025 and an additional 10% by the end of February 2026. [00:25:34]
    • HSBC outperformed Nvidia last year despite the global AI boom. [00:25:51]
    • The UK is described as the "best short duration market in the world" due to its commodity, financial, and defense weighting. [00:26:37]

    VIII. Future High Conviction Convictions

    • Fox sees a tangible deconstruction into three economic regions: The Americas, Europe, and Asia. [00:29:06]
    • He believes China will increasingly utilize Hong Kong as its primary global financial center. [00:29:15]
    • AI is expected to be the most transformative technology of our lifetimes, comparable to the internet in the 90s. [00:29:21]

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