Iran war resumption; what I got wrong and right to-date | 24 Jul 2026 | Luke Gromen - FFTT, LLC
1. Executive Briefing (TL;DR)
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Top Key Takeaways:
- Rolling Third Oil Crisis & Yuan/Gold Settlement: The ongoing Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruptions are symptoms of a rolling "Third Oil Crisis." China, Russia, and Venezuela are trading oil in Yuan and net-settling in Gold, driving central banks away from US Treasuries toward physical Gold [00:11:52].
- Shale Production Trilemma: US shale oil production requires $85–$90/bbl to maintain output growth, but sustained oil above this threshold triggers severe dysfunction in the US Treasury market [].
References
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