This roundtable discussion features prominent financial experts—Jeffrey Gundlach, Danielle DiMartino Booth, Charles Payne, Jim Bianco, and David Rosenberg—sharing their "best ideas" for the investment landscape of 2026. The core thesis revolves around a shift in the macroeconomic regime, characterized by persistent inflation, rising long-term interest rates, and a "fourth industrial revolution" driven by AI and defense spending. The panel largely agrees on the necessity of hard assets, predicting a secular bull market for commodities like gold and copper, while advising caution on long-duration Treasury bonds and suggesting a strategic pivot to specific and .
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Commodities Supercycle: There is near-unanimous consensus that gold, silver, and copper are in a secular bull market. Central bank buying and supply constraints are driving gold toward potential highs of $6,000+.
The "Fourth Industrial Revolution":AI and defense are viewed as transformative themes. However, experts warn of an "infrastructure bubble" (similar to the dot-com era) where hardware builders benefit first, followed by a crash, and then the emergence of true utility.
Interest Rate Divergence: While the Fed may cut short-term rates due to rising unemployment (potentially hitting 5%), long-term rates are expected to drift higher due to fiscal deficits and inflation, leading to a steeper yield curve.
Defense & Power: Increased geopolitical instability and the energy demands of AI data centers make defense stocks and utilities (nuclear, solar, grid infrastructure) critical portfolio holdings.
Macro Regime Change: The era of low-interest rates and US dollar dominance is fading. Investors are urged to diversify into non-US equities (emerging markets, India, UK) and real assets to hedge against currency debasement.
Private Credit Risks: A warning is sounded regarding the "shadow banking" system, with a 92% growth in non-depository lending posing a systemic risk if the economy weakens.
Housing Affordability: Upcoming government policies may target housing affordability, potentially impacting the housing market and related sectors.
Detailed Summary by Topic
Macro Economy: Interest Rates & Inflation
The panel presents a nuanced view of the economy, distinguishing between short-term Fed actions and long-term bond market realities.
Danielle DiMartino Booth argues for a weaker first half of 2026, predicting unemployment will hit 5% by mid-year. She anticipates the Fed will cut rates four times in the first half to combat this, benefitting 5-year Treasuries initially. 00:01:31
Jeffrey Gundlach and Jim Bianco offer a counter-view on long-term rates. They argue that despite potential Fed cuts, long-term yields (10-year and 30-year) will rise due to massive US deficits and sticky inflation. Gundlach emphasizes that the deflationary era of 1980–2020 is over, and we are in a new secular trend of rising rates. 00:12:07
Currency: Opinions on the US Dollar are split. DiMartino Booth sees early weakness00:02:19, while Bianco and Gundlach suggest a "retracement rally" (strength) in the first half of the year before a potential decline later. 00:32:02
Equities & Sectors: The "Fourth Industrial Revolution"
Charles Payne and Jim Bianco frame the current market environment as a massive industrial shift comparable to the late 19th century. 00:06:26
AI & Technology: Bianco draws a parallel to the late 1990s internet boom. We are currently in the "infrastructure build-out" phase (buying the "switches and routers" of AI), which will likely end in a bubble burst, followed by the true adoption phase. 00:25:01
Defense & Space: Payne identifies space and unmanned aerial vehicles (drones) as the new frontier of warfare, labeling it a "must-own" sector. He highlights that modern defense spending is shifting toward technology and efficiency. 00:07:15
Energy & Utilities: The massive power requirements for AI data centers are driving a bullish case for utilities, nuclear energy (despite recent volatility in SMRs), and solar. 00:09:11
Commodities: Gold, Silver, & Copper
This is the highest conviction area for the panel.
Gold & Silver:David Rosenberg and Jeffrey Gundlach highlight that gold has been in a bull market since 1999, driven recently by central banks aggressively restocking reserves (moving from 10% to 25% of global reserves). 00:43:23
Copper: Identified as the critical metal for the electrification and AI boom. Supply is inelastic (hard to increase quickly), while demand is exponential, creating a "no-brainer" investment case. 00:08:33
International Markets
Emerging Markets: With the US dollar expected to weaken eventually, the panel favors non-US assets. 00:12:34
Specific Picks:David Rosenberg favors the UK Gilts market (betting on BOE rate cuts) and India (Sensex) as a growth engine. Charles Payne suggests high-risk, high-reward plays in Latin America (MercadoLibre) and Africa (Jumia) for long-term growth. 00:40:0200:45:14
Data & Figures
Data Point
Value
Context
Timestamp
Unemployment Forecast
5%
Danielle DiMartino Booth predicts this level by mid-2026.
The Divorce Sale:Charles Payne shares a personal story about owning Rocket Lab stock at $6.50. He was forced to sell at $54 due to his divorce, missing the run-up to $80, illustrating the pain of forced liquidation. 00:05:51
The Airport Database:Jim Bianco uses the modern airport experience to explain the real value of AI. He argues AI will make this seamless ("Jim is at the airport, let him through"), removing "soulless" database administration work. 00:23:07
1911 Electricity Peak:Jeffrey Gundlach recounts that electricity stocks peaked relative to the market in 1911, just as electricity was becoming ubiquitous. This warns that best investment gains often come before full adoption. 00:10:55
References & Recommendations
Books
Democracy in America by Alexis de Tocqueville - Referenced regarding "American Exceptionalism". 00:34:50
War and Peace by Leo Tolstoy - Metaphor used to describe the "Tale of Two Markets". 00:02:53
People Referenced
Ivy Zelman (Housing Analyst) - Mentioned regarding White House housing affordability initiatives. 00:38:14
MercadoLibre (MELI): E-commerce in Latin America. 00:45:14
Caterpillar (CAT): Cited as an unexpected AI beneficiary. 00:09:42
Quotes
"If the United States catches a cold... the rest of the world is still going to get the flu." - Danielle DiMartino Booth00:02:35
"I'm just going to tell you, I made more money for people last year than I ever have in my life." - Charles Payne00:05:46
"You have to have exposure to unmanned aerial vehicles. That is just the way war is going to be fought." - Charles Payne00:07:31
"The copper gold ratio is a total disaster... maybe we should use the gold copper ratio because it looks like it's being more accurate these days." - Jeffrey Gundlach00:19:26
"Silicon Valley does a criminally bad job of selling [AI] to everybody." - Jim Bianco00:22:52
"I channel my inner Jeff Bezos: 'Thank you investors of the world, you gave up your riches... and you left the world with the internet.'" - Jim Bianco00:25:35
Speakers & Credentials
Jeffrey Gundlach: CEO of DoubleLine Capital. Expert in fixed income and asset allocation.
Danielle DiMartino Booth: CEO of QI Research. Expert on Fed policy and labor markets.
Charles Payne: Host of "Making Money" on Fox Business. Expert on equities and growth investing.
Jim Bianco: President of Bianco Research. Macro strategist known for analyzing inflation and flows.
David Rosenberg: President of Rosenberg Research. Bearish economist known for contrarian views.
Actionable Next Steps
Build a "Real Assets" Allocation: Allocate 15-20% of the portfolio to Gold and Copper to hedge against debasement. 00:13:13
Shorten Bond Duration:Avoid long-term US Treasuries (30-year). Focus on short-term TIPS or the 2-year note. 00:14:12
Invest in "War & Power": Research drones, space, and energy grid infrastructure supporting AI. 00:07:15
Diversify Internationally: Consider UK Gilts or the Indian Stock Market (Sensex) to reduce USD reliance. 00:39:02
Watch the "Infrastructure Bubble": Be prepared for volatility in AI hardware; look for the "users" of AI for the next phase. 00:26:40
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Gold Prediction
>$4,000
Gundlach's target for gold, met faster than expected.