"The clear US goal is to retain its global hegemony ahead, which is challenged by the rise of China." - RaboResearch (Establishing the foundational motive behind the new US grand strategy)
"Every dollar we spend, every program we fund, every policy we pursue must be justified by the answer to one of three questions: Does it make America safer? Does it make America stronger? Or does it make America more prosperous?" - Secretary of State Rubio (Defining the core tenets of the "America First" foreign policy)
"US grand macro strategy isn't about smaller trade deficits but reshaping the global system vs China." - RaboResearch (Clarifying that tariffs and trade policies are geopolitical weapons, not just economic tools)
"It is no longer possible for Korea to act or make judgments in ways that run counter to the US' basic policy direction." - South Korean President Lee (Highlighting the successful alignment of Asia-Pacific allies under US pressure)
"Economic security is national security." - America First Investment Policy (Summarizing the justification for domestic protectionism and foreign capital controls)
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The Rabobank report outlines the rapid implementation of the "Trump Plan," an emergent US Grand Macro Strategy that replaces traditional economic policy with aggressive geopolitical statecraft.
The core thesis is that the US is systematically weaponizing trade, capital, and military leverage to isolate China, secure a North American industrial base, and compel allies into compliance.
By enacting the highest tariffs since the 1930s, dismantling green energy subsidies for fossil fuel dominance, and driving trillions in foreign investment into its domestic defense and tech sectors, the US aims to secure long-term global hegemony.
Key Takeaways
Geopolitics Over Economics: The US has fully shifted from macroeconomic targeting to a neo-mercantilist strategy where trade, monetary, and fiscal policies are used primarily to achieve national security goals.
Unprecedented Tariff Walls: The US has implemented its highest tariffs since the 1930s, imposing a 54% rate on China, leveraging 10% and 15% reciprocal rates on European allies (UK and EU respectively), and threatening 100% to 200% tariffs to punish geopolitical misalignment.
The "Reverse Marshall Plan": Instead of funding foreign allies, the US is successfully using geoeconomic pressure to channel $4 trillion in foreign direct investment and $2.7 trillion in corporate pledges back into American national security sectors like AI and critical minerals.
Militarized Industrial Policy: The Pentagon is taking an active market role—including equity stakes in defense contractors and guaranteed price controls for domestic rare-earth producers—to secure supply chains.
North American Consolidation: The USMCA is being renegotiated to force Canada and Mexico to erect common external tariffs against China, effectively granting the US control over the entire North American economy.
Fossil Fuel Pivot: Fiscal overhauls like the "One Big Beautiful Bill" are eliminating electric vehicle and green energy credits in favor of driving US "energy dominance" via oil and gas expansion.
Detailed Summary by Topic
Political Statecraft: America First
The US has adopted a highly transactional, realist foreign policy that explicitly prioritizes national interests over multilateral alliances. Regionally, the US is enforcing a strict Monroe Doctrine by securing its North American base through aggressive border enforcement and demanding Canada and Mexico conform to its trade posture against China.
In Latin America, it is leveraging massive 50% tariffs against Brazil (for geopolitical misalignment) and projecting military force against cartels in Mexico and Venezuela. While attempts to peel Russia away from China (a "Reverse Nixon") have failed, the strategy has successfully isolated China in the Asia-Pacific by drawing Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines into strict alignment.
Military Statecraft: Peace Through Strength
Under the renamed Department of War, US military strategy focuses on sharpening its technological edge while avoiding ground wars. The US expects its allies to handle on-the-ground fighting and to fund the air power and arms provided by America. To enforce this, the US successfully pressured NATO to target a 5% defense spending mandate by 2035.
The government is also deeply integrating itself into private markets to secure military superiority; the Pentagon is investing directly ($400 million) in rare-earth producers (like MP Materials) and considering equity stakes in defense tech firms to bypass bureaucratic delays and ensure supply chain dominance.
Economic Statecraft: Trade and Tariffs
Trade is now explicitly viewed through a national security lens, establishing a neo-mercantilist framework. The US is utilizing reciprocal tariffs to force trading partners to lower their own tariffs and make "with-us-or-against-us" choices regarding China. Sectoral tariffs ranging from 25% to 100% are deployed to protect critical industries, alongside 40% transshipment tariffs aimed at preventing Chinese goods from entering via third parties.
The government is also weaponizing non-tariff barriers, expanding export controls on AI and critical minerals, and imposing port fees specifically on Chinese-built vessels (starting at $50 per net ton).
Economic Statecraft: Capital Controls and Fiscal Overhaul
The US has effectively inverted its historical foreign aid model, replacing it with a "Reverse Marshall Plan". By utilizing a mix of carrots and sticks, the US has secured massive commitments of foreign direct investment directed squarely at sectors crucial to national security.
Domestically, the "One Big Beautiful Bill" represents a sweeping fiscal overhaul: it slashes green energy subsidies, ends the $7,500 EV tax credit, provides 100% immediate expensing for new US factories, and funds the National Defence Stockpile. These moves collectively incentivize fossil fuel "energy dominance" and mandate domestic manufacturing.
Data & Figures
Data Point
Value
Context
China Reciprocal Tariff
54%
The current high reciprocal tariff rate applied to China, actively managed with a rolling 90-day deal to prevent reverting to 145%.
Transshipment Tariff
40%
The tariff rate the US insists upon for new trade deals aimed at catching Chinese goods routed through third countries.
Border Security Funds
$156 billion
The budget allocated to border security, missile defense systems, and other defense upgrades.
MP Materials Investment
$400 million
The Pentagon's direct investment in a domestic rare-earth producer, including a 10-year minimum price guarantee.
Foreign Investment Pledges
$4 trillion
The sum of foreign direct investment pledges (from Asia, Middle East, Europe) steered into US security sectors.
Corporate US Pledges
$2.7 trillion
Pledges by major firms focused on AI and datacenters within the US over the next several years.
Target NATO Defense Spending
5%
The broad defense spending target by agreed upon by NATO after US pressure.
Stories & Anecdotes
The Panamanian Port Intervention: Illustrating the aggressive Monroe Doctrine, US pressure forced Panama to abandon China's Belt and Road Initiative. The US intervened to ensure a BlackRock-led consortium purchased Panamanian ports from a Hong Kong firm, directly blocking Beijing's influence in the Western Hemisphere.
Brazil's Geopolitical Punishment: To demonstrate that tariffs are geopolitical weapons rather than just economic ones, the US imposed a 50% tariff on Brazil. This was done as retaliation for Brazil's prosecution of former President Bolsonaro and its engagement with BRICS, illustrating the transactional, "America First" punishment mechanisms.
The "Reverse Marshall Plan": Highlighting a historical pivot, the report notes that post-WWII America used its capital to rebuild Europe and Asia. Today, the strategy is completely inverted: the US is actively coercing its wealthy allies (and corporate giants) to pour trillions of dollars into rebuilding the American industrial and military base.
References & Recommendations
People Referenced:
Secretary of State Rubio - Context: Quoted to outline the 3 questions that justify the transactional "America First" foreign policy (safer, stronger, prosperous).
Commerce Secretary Lutnick - Context: Mentioned regarding the Pentagon's new initiative to take equity stakes in defense contractors to enforce accountability.
President Lee (South Korea) - Context: Cited as evidence of successful US alignment in Asia, acknowledging Korea must follow the US policy direction.
Philip Marey (RaboResearch US Strategist) - Context: Credited for accurately warning "tariff denialists" that the US was headed for its highest tariff rates since the 1930s.
Governor Kugler, Governor Cook, Chair Miran, Director Hasset, Fed Chair Powell - Context: Key figures surrounding the potential restructuring of the Federal Reserve to align monetary policy with executive geopolitical goals.
President Maduro (Venezuela) - Context: A $50 million reward was set for his arrest amid US naval actions against drug trafficking.
Companies & Tools Referenced:
MP Materials - Context: A rare-earth producer used as a prime example of new military statecraft; the Pentagon guaranteed a minimum price for its neodymium products for a decade.
BlackRock - Context: Led the politically motivated purchase of ports in Panama to block Chinese control.
DeepSeek AI - Context: A Chinese artificial intelligence platform that was explicitly banned by the US Navy.
Chevron, Intel, Nippon Steel, US Steel - Context: Examples of firms navigating the new statecraft, including the US taking a 10% equity stake in Intel and maintaining "golden shares" oversight in the Nippon Steel acquisition.
Legislation / Policies Referenced:
One Big Beautiful Bill - Context: A massive fiscal bill modifying the Inflation Reduction Act, terminating EV credits, and providing immense capital for domestic manufacturing and defense stockpiles.
USMCA - Context: The North American trade pact currently being renegotiated to form a unified tariff wall against China.
Maintaining American Superiority by Improving Export Control Transparency Act - Context: Requires detailed reporting on tech exports to prevent military-civil fusion advantages for competitors.
Trade Acts of 1939, 1962, and 1974 - Context: Kept as parallel legislation (specifically Sections 232 and 301) to enforce tariffs if other emergency powers are ruled unconstitutional.
Speakers & Credentials
Michael Every: Senior Global Strategist, RaboResearch.
Joe DeLaura: Senior Energy Strategist, RaboResearch.
Florence Schmit: Energy Strategist, RaboResearch.
(Perspective: Institutional macroeconomic, energy, and geopolitical strategists providing macro-level analysis for global markets and allied economies.)
Actionable Next Steps
1. Audit Supply Chain Vulnerabilities: Immediately review global supply chains for exposure to the 40% transshipment tariffs and reciprocal tariff rates, prioritizing rapid localization to USMCA-compliant zones or highly aligned US military allies.
2. Pivot Energy Strategies: Adjust corporate energy and ESG targets to reflect the phase-out of US green energy tax credits, recognizing the US government's explicit pivot back to fossil fuel expansion and "energy dominance."3. Capitalize on Defense/Tech Subsidies: Explore domestic joint ventures or investments in critical minerals, rare-earth mining, and AI datacenters, positioning your enterprise to capture portions of the $5 billion allocated to supply chain investments and the 100% immediate expensing provisions for new US factories.
Jul 13, 2026
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2035
USMCA Non-Compliant Duties
35% (Canada) / 25% (Mexico)
Tariffs applied to non-USMCA compliant goods from neighboring countries to force trade alignment.
Brazil Tariff
50%
Imposed over the prosecution of former President Bolsonaro and potential BRICS involvement.
UK and EU Tariffs
10% and 15%
Reciprocal tariff rates set for major European allies.
Critical Mineral Stockpiles
$2 billion
Funds provided via the Defense Department for the National Defence Stockpile.
Supply Chain Investments
$5 billion
Funds allocated through 2029 via the Industrial Base Fund.