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On this page

Speakers & Credentials

  • Speakers & Credentials
  • 1. Executive Summary
  • 2. Chronological Table of Contents
  • 3. Detailed Thematic Summary
  • The Reference Vault
  • 4. Data & Figures
  • 5. Core Frameworks & Mental Models
  • 6. Anecdotes
  • 7. References & Recommendations
  • 8. Actionable Next Steps

On this page

  • Speakers & Credentials
  • 1. Executive Summary
  • 2. Chronological Table of Contents
  • 3. Detailed Thematic Summary
  • The Reference Vault
  • 4. Data & Figures
  • 5. Core Frameworks & Mental Models
  • 6. Anecdotes
  • 7. References & Recommendations
  • 8. Actionable Next Steps
Middle East/March 19, 2026/6 min read/youtu.be

Emerging Markets: Stirred, But Not Yet Shaken | Goldman Sachs

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"I think the market is pricing in a higher inflation shock in response to the spike in energy prices that you've seen as a result of the conflict." - Kamakshya Trivedi [00:00:47]

"It hasn't really been a growth shock that's been priced. That's the shoe that's left to drop." - Kamakshya Trivedi [00:02:30]

References

  1. Original source (youtu.be)

Disclaimer: Orignal content owned by or sourced from third parties. It does not represent the views of 'Nuggets' platform or it's team. AI is used extensively across this platform including for summaries. Accuracy is not guaranteed, there can be mistakes. Any info or content on this platform is not a financial, legal, or investment advice. Do your own research. Refer for complete disclosures:- Terms of Use · Full Disclaimer

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Reading

Published
March 19, 2026
Read time
6 min read
Progress0%

"The central bank can intervene to stop the currency from appreciating." - Kamakshya Trivedi [00:03:22]

"Korea is the poster child of that earnings growth... the pricing power that these firms have is second to none." - Kamakshya Trivedi [00:10:01]


Speakers & Credentials

  • Allison Nathan: Host of Goldman Sachs Exchanges, bringing deep financial journalism and macroeconomic framing expertise to complex market shifts.
  • Kamakshya Trivedi: Chief Foreign Exchange and Emerging Markets Strategist at Goldman Sachs Research. He provides institutional-grade perspectives on global FX dynamics, emerging market asset allocations, and the intersection of geopolitical shocks and macroeconomic trends.

1. Executive Summary

  • Geopolitical Shock Absorption: Following a strong run for risky assets through February, markets were sharply interrupted by an energy price spike stemming from the Iran conflict.
  • Inflation Over Growth: Markets have strictly priced in a robust inflation shock via shifted rates curves—scaling back expected rate cuts in the UK and US—while largely ignoring significant growth shock indicators for the time being.
  • The Failure of Traditional Hedges: Standard portfolio hedges such as long gold, long duration (US interest rates), and the Swiss franc significantly underperformed due to opposing inflationary headwinds and central bank intervention risks.
  • Emerging Markets (EM) Resilience: Despite initial unwinding, the EM narrative remains highly viable, backed by an expected 10-12% upside in EM equities, and the enduring strength of the AI supply chain anchored in markets like Korea and Taiwan.

2. Chronological Table of Contents

  • [00:00:00] Introduction: Reversal of Risky Asset Gains
  • [00:00:47] High-Level Market Observations: Inflation Shock Pricing
  • [00:02:46] The Underperformance of Traditional Portfolio Hedges
  • [00:04:14] The Sequence of Shocks: Why Growth is Not Yet Priced In
  • [00:05:14] US Dollar Dynamics & Terms of Trade Differentiation
  • [00:07:10] Emerging Markets: Unwinding and Import Bill Pressures
  • [00:09:22] North Asia, the AI Theme, and Earnings Growth Projections
  • [00:11:00] Balancing Digital Exposure with Macro Exporters
  • [00:12:00] Structural Drivers for Long-Term EM Resilience

3. Detailed Thematic Summary

The Geopolitical Inflation Shock vs. Growth Resiliency [00:00:47]

  • Shifted Rate Curves: The immediate market reaction to the Iran conflict and subsequent energy price spike has been entirely focused on inflation. Central banks that were heavily priced to execute rate cuts have seen those expectations aggressively priced out [00:01:15].
  • Absence of a Growth Shock: Despite downward pressure on broader equities, it has not yet transitioned into a growth panic. A true growth shock is the "shoe that's left to drop," which will only materialize if the conflict sustains for a longer period [00:04:30].

The Breakdown of Traditional Hedges [00:02:46]

  • The Duration Trap: Allocators who used long duration (US interest rates) as a defensive buffer were caught off guard. The geopolitical crisis manifested as an inflationary energy shock, negating the hedge value of long-term bonds [00:03:15].
  • Gold's Underperformance: Institutional investors had grown comfortable with long gold positions, leaving them vulnerable to technical unwinds rather than fundamental safety, preventing gold from performing as expected [00:03:08].
  • Swiss Franc Intervention Risk: The Swiss franc also underperformed as a haven asset due to past experiences; markets anticipate that during global shocks, the Swiss central bank can intervene to stop the currency from appreciating rapidly [00:03:22].

Terms of Trade & Currency Differentiation [00:05:14]

  • The Export Advantage: As energy prices stay high, the market is severely punishing energy importers while rewarding energy exporters. This terms of trade divide has become the fundamental axis driving global currency pair differentiations [00:06:15].

Emerging Markets: Supply Chains, AI, and Capital Allocations [00:07:10]

  • Earnings-Driven Upside: Goldman Sachs Research projects an impressive 10 to 12% upside for EM equities from current levels, fueled almost entirely by raw earnings growth [00:09:35].
  • The North Asian AI Fortress: Korea, Taiwan, and China represent the structural backbone of this growth. As the primary suppliers of semiconductors to the global AI ecosystem, their corporate pricing power is "second to none." [00:10:01].
  • Structural Underweighting: The overarching bull case for EM rests heavily on investor positioning. Global equity funds currently allocate only ~10% of portfolios to EM, trailing significantly behind the 12% global benchmark weight [00:13:28].

The Reference Vault

4. Data & Figures

Data PointValueContextTimestamp
Projected EM Equity Upside10 - 12%Goldman Sachs Research's expected upside for Emerging Market equities from current post-shock levels, driven almost entirely by earnings growth.[00:09:35]
Global Benchmark EM Weight12%The standard allocation benchmark for Emerging Market equities within a globally diversified portfolio.[00:13:28]
Actual Global Fund EM Allocation~10%The current estimated allocation to EM equities by global equity funds, indicating a structural underweighting.[00:13:28]

5. Core Frameworks & Mental Models

  1. The Sequential Pricing of Shocks: [00:04:30]
    • Concept: Markets do not price all consequences of a black swan event simultaneously.
    • Application: In response to geopolitical conflict, capital markets first assess the exact limits of the inflationary supply shock (energy prices). The secondary growth shock is the "shoe left to drop" only if the crisis prolongs.
  2. The "Terms of Trade" FX Differentiator: [00:06:15]
    • Concept: A framework for evaluating currency strength during a commodity spike by categorizing nations strictly as net-importers or net-exporters.
    • Application: This axis has become the major differentiator for global currency pairs as high energy prices fundamentally improve the balance of payments for exporting nations compared to energy-importing nations.
  3. The Barbell EM Allocation Strategy: [00:11:00]
    • Concept: Hedging geographical risks by balancing digital/secular growth economies against cyclical macroeconomic economies.
    • Application: Trivedi advises balancing highly exposed North Asian energy importers that hold secular AI monopolies (Korea, Taiwan, China) with raw macro factors and commodity exporters like South Africa.

6. Anecdotes

  • The Swiss Franc Institutional Memory Trap: [00:03:22] When the conflict broke out, many investors expected the Swiss Franc to operate as a flawless geopolitical safe haven. However, the hedge completely broke down. Trivedi noted that institutional memory dictated behavior: investors remembered from past shocks that the central bank frequently intervenes to cap currency appreciation, rendering the franc useless as a defensive upside hedge.
  • Korea's Initial Underperformance: [00:08:15] Despite being the core engine of global AI semiconductor growth, Korea initially suffered as one of the biggest underperformers exactly because of its phenomenal run going into the crisis. Its heavy, crowded positioning meant that when the energy shock hit, technical unwinds battered the market regardless of its strong long-term fundamentals.

7. References & Recommendations

  • Geopolitical Events: The Iran Conflict.
  • Financial Instruments & Assets: US Interest Rates (Long Duration), Swiss Franc, Gold.
  • Sovereign Markets & Economies: United Kingdom, United States, Korea, Taiwan, China, South Africa.
  • Institutions: Goldman Sachs Research, Swiss Central Bank.

8. Actionable Next Steps

  1. Re-Evaluate Portfolio Hedges Against Inflation: Institutional allocators must immediately stress-test their "safe haven" assets (like long duration and gold) to ensure they are not inversely correlated with the specific inflation dynamics driving the current geopolitical shock.
  2. Execute the EM Barbell Strategy: Rebalance Emerging Market portfolios to hold both secular AI growth engines (Korea/Taiwan/China) AND risk-off macro factors (South Africa) to hedge against prolonged energy price spikes.
  3. Capitalize on the EM Allocation Gap: With global funds sitting at ~10% EM allocation against a 12% benchmark, asset managers should preemptively deploy marginal capital into EM equities to capture the projected 10-12% earnings-driven upside.

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