Compute Scarcity, Higher Rates, and Where We’re Investing | 25 Oct 2026 | Jon Gray’s Market Views Q3 2026

1. Executive Briefing (TL;DR)

• Top Key Takeaways:
  • Volatile Macro Backdrop & Elevated Cost of Capital: Q3 was marked by sharp macro swings—energy prices spiked +30% while 10-year Treasuries jumped +80 basis points, driving up the global cost of capital and compressing valuation multiples [00:00:10].
  • AI Infrastructure Represents Structural Scarcity, Not a Bubble: Unlike classic leverage-fueled bubbles (e.g., late 19th-century railroads, late 20th-century telecom) where overcapacity precedes demand, AI is characterized by hyper-exponential demand (model spending up 20x) severely constrained by physical bottlenecks (power, chips, turbines, entitlements) [].