Here is the comprehensive summary of the interview featuring Dr. Ed Yardeni (President of Yardeni Research) on the David Lin channel, recorded on April 13, 2026 [00:00:26]. The discussion focuses on macroeconomic trends, corporate earnings, geopolitical conflicts, and strategic portfolio positioning for the remainder of the decade.
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Despite President Trump announcing a US naval blockade of all vessels entering and leaving Iranian ports [00:00:32], financial markets have remained remarkably stable [00:02:48]. Yardeni attributes this to the market acting as a discounting mechanism that anticipates supply chain disruptions resolving themselves over time [00:03:39]. He draws historical parallels to market bottoms following events like Pearl Harbor / Midway in World War II [00:03:20] and the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine [00:03:52].
Yardeni correctly called the recent market bottom on March 30, 2026 [00:01:44], driven by a contrarian reading of peak bearishness where the bull-bear ratio had plummeted close to 1 [00:14:56]. Because of the economy's ongoing resilience, Yardeni recently lowered his recession odds from 35% down to 20% [00:14:13]. He currently assigns an 80% probability to a bullish macro environment [00:16:42]—consisting of a 60% "Roaring 2020s" base case [00:16:27] and a 20% short-term "melt-up" scenario [00:16:36]. He assigns the remaining 20% to an ugly "1970s stagflationary" or "1930s" style downside shock [00:18:54].
He notes that industry analysts are currently even more optimistic, pricing in $320 for this year and $370 for next year [00:05:28]. Analysts project a minimum 12% increase for Q1 earnings [00:06:07], with double-digit growth expected to continue for the second, third, and fourth quarters [00:06:20]. Furthermore, Yardeni dismisses the declining NFIB Small Business Optimism Index as a "quasi-useful indicator," preferring to look at hard labor and hiring market data instead [00:08:19].
While geopolitical tensions in the Middle East dominate headlines, Yardeni emphasizes that the digital, service-oriented US economy is much less energy-intensive today than during the stagflationary 1970s and can comfortably absorb oil at $100 a barrel [00:11:03]. He breaks down the relationship between oil and the economy into three hypothetical bond curve scenarios:
Stage 1 ($100 to $125/barrel): Inflation fears dominate, the Fed remains hawkish, but the economy continues to grow [00:12:19].
Stage 2 ($125 to $150/barrel): The shock persists long enough that genuine growth fears begin to emerge [00:12:33].
Stage 3 (Above $150/barrel): Real demand destruction occurs, eventually forcing the Fed to turn dovish [00:12:40].
The latest March CPI report showed a 3.3% rise—the highest number since May 2024—driven heavily by a 21% month-over-month surge in gasoline and oil [00:19:44]. However, Yardeni also notes that baseline consumer inflation has stalled around 3%, which is mostly a consequence of Trump's tariffs (particularly on durable goods) preventing inflation from reaching the Fed's 2% target [00:10:11]. Yardeni remains hopeful that ongoing surges in productivity will act as a deflationary offset [00:21:24]. Looking ahead, he advises watching the upcoming Tuesday Producer Price Index (PPI) data to gauge how quickly transportation and energy costs are passing through to inflation [00:34:01].
Yardeni, who famously coined the term "bond vigilantes" in 1983 [00:27:21], notes they have been mostly "asleep at the switch" in the US lately, focusing their efforts instead on pushing up yields in Japan and the UK [00:22:09]. The host cited a Fortune article from March 28 noting weaker Treasury demand as $10 trillion in US debt must be rolled over this year [00:26:38].
Yardeni expects the 10-year Treasury yield to fluctuate between 4.25% and 4.75% this year, viewing a move to 4.75% as a tremendous buying opportunity [00:22:29].
He compared the current bond market calm to the volatility in late 2023 (when yields spiked to 5%), which was resolved when Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen appeased the market by shifting issuance toward T-Bills rather than long-dated bonds [00:28:24].
Gold, currently sitting around $4,700, surprisingly sold off following the Iran war developments [00:23:45]. Yardeni attributes this largely to emerging markets, specifically Turkey, selling off gold reserves to prop up their deteriorating domestic currencies [00:24:14]. Despite short-term profit-taking, Yardeni sees gold as a strong portfolio diversifier. If his base case plays out and the S&P 500 hits 10,000 by the end of 2029 [00:25:46], he believes gold could simultaneously hit $10,000 as wealthy equity investors look to rebalance their massive profits into safe-haven assets [00:25:52].
Regarding equities, Yardeni officially ended a 15-year overweight recommendation on US equities (a theme he coined "Stay Home") and Big Tech in December 2025 [00:29:29].
Because the Technology and Communication Services sectors ballooned to represent 46% of the S&P 500's market cap, he advised against structurally overweighting them [00:30:19].
He did, however, recently raise the "Magnificent 7" back to a market-weight position after their forward P/E multiples contracted attractively from 32 down to 25 [00:29:59].
The "go global" trade is firmly back in fashion, evidenced by rapid V-shaped market recoveries in international markets like South Korea and Taiwan [00:32:20]. Yardeni notes he is staying with this global rotation trend [00:32:36]. Yardeni publishes his ongoing macroeconomic observations in daily updates he calls "Yardiquakes" [00:33:15].
Jul 18, 2026
The Week Ahead - The World Turns | 17 Jul 2026 | Nomura
1. Executive Briefing TL;DR The Core Thesis: Global central banks are shifting into highly data dependent "wait and see" configurations as cooling structural forces, such as slowing US wage growth and falling wholesale energy costs, clash…