"If you're a solitary regional hegemon, you just don't face many threats to your vital interests from other great powers." - [Joshua Byun] [00:06:17]
"No matter how bad or intense security competition gets in a world with one regional hegemon, it won't be as bad as it will be in a world where you have two regional hegemons." - [Joshua Byun] [00:06:04]
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"The primacy of land power means that geographically proximate adversaries who can use armies to cross territorial frontiers and seize territory represent the severest threat to a great power's vital interests." - [Joshua Byun] [00:14:43]
"The best way to keep your regional hegemony over the long haul is to take away the other side's regional hegemony." - [Joshua Byun] [00:23:14]
"Great powers hardly ever cooperate. They almost always compete." - [John Mearsheimer] [00:43:40]
"You'd much prefer the competition take place in my backyard, not in your backyard. So the incentives for each side to gain advantage over the other side by getting the first blow in... are just enormous." - [John Mearsheimer] [00:45:06]
"If we have a Monroe Doctrine, they should have a Monroe Doctrine. What's good for the goose is good for the gander." - [John Mearsheimer] [00:56:32]
Speakers & Credentials
Joshua Byun: Assistant Professor in the Political Science Department at Boston College. Specializes in international relations, focusing on grand strategy, alliance politics, preventative war, nuclear weapons, international norms, and performative violence. Co-author of a forthcoming Yale University Press book with John Mearsheimer.
John Mearsheimer: R. Wendell Harrison Distinguished Service Professor of Political Science at the University of Chicago (teaching since 1982). Graduate of West Point (1970) and served five years as a US Air Force officer. A prominent and highly influential structural realist voice in security issues and international politics.
Jenna: Host/Moderator of the ONDISC event.
1. Executive Summary
John Mearsheimer and Joshua Byun present the core thesis of their forthcoming Yale University Press book, focusing on the distinct, severe dangers of a "peer regional hegemon" to the United States' long-term security.
They argue that the US, as the world's solitary regional hegemon (uncontested in the Western Hemisphere), currently enjoys immense strategic advantages, primarily by not facing proximate, land-based military threats.
The emergence of a peer regional hegemon (e.g., China successfully dominating East Asia) would trigger an intense, inescapable security competition. Free from local threats, both hegemons would project power globally and face immense structural incentives to undermine each other's regional dominance.
The speakers systematically dismantle the growing academic consensus of "restraint" or "neo-isolationism," which downplays the threat of a peer hegemon by relying on the "stopping power of water" and the pacifying effects of nuclear deterrence.
During the Q&A, the authors apply this theoretical framework to current US grand strategy, advocating for a strictly defensive containment coalition against China in the Indo-Pacific, while heavily criticizing US resource diversions in the Middle East, Eastern Europe, and ideologically driven interventions in Latin America.
[00:02:07] Motivation: The Traditional View vs. Emerging Restraint Challenges
[00:05:21] The Core Argument: The Dangers of Peer Security Competition
[00:07:09] Background: Defining Regional Hegemony and the Lone US Position
[00:08:26] The Debate: Security Benefits vs. Neo-Isolationist Views
[00:11:39] Conceptual Groundwork: Vital Interests and Core Regions
[00:14:14] Theory Premise 1: The Ultimate Threat of Proximate Land Power
[00:16:38] Theory Premise 2: Distant Powers Reintroducing Proximate Threats
[00:17:28] Strategic Dynamics: Solitary Hegemon vs. Peer Regional Hegemons
[00:24:32] Historical Evidence: Imperial Germany and Nazi Germany Operations
[00:31:16] Addressing Potential Academic and Theoretical Objections
[00:34:54] Conclusion and Implications for US Grand Strategy
[00:42:33] Q&A: Cooperation vs. Competition (The Impossibility of Trust)
[00:48:10] Q&A: Why Regional Hegemony Matters Without Global Hegemony
[00:54:05] Q&A: Nuclear Deterrence and China's Hegemonic Pathway
[00:58:34] Q&A: The Middle East Diversion, Iran, and Oil Shipments
[01:02:47] Q&A: The British Empire's Failure to Stop the Rise of the US
[01:06:49] Q&A: Defining the Soviet Union's Status During the Cold War
[01:14:15] Q&A: Measuring Power (Population Size + Economic Wealth)
[01:17:48] Q&A: Misguided US Policy in Latin America (Venezuela, Cuba)
[01:23:04] Q&A: What Chinese Hegemony Practically Looks Like
[01:26:45] Q&A: China's Global Power Projection and Belt and Road
[01:27:46] Q&A: The Myth of Authoritarian Weakness vs. Democratic Strength
3. Detailed Thematic Summary
The Value of Solitary Regional Hegemony [00:07:09]
The US Position: The United States achieved solitary regional hegemony in the Western Hemisphere in the late 19th century [00:07:15]. This unparalleled position allows it to dictate terms in its neighborhood, as evidenced by US Secretary of State Richard Olney's 1895 statement declaring the US "practically sovereign" on the continent [00:07:22].
Massive Security Benefits: A regional hegemon faces virtually no existential threat from proximate military competitors [00:15:35]. This freedom allows the US to project power globally, build military bases worldwide, and maintain access to core economic regions without interference in its own backyard [00:19:09].
The Primacy of Land Power: Despite advancements in air and naval tech, land power remains the ultimate currency in international politics because people live on land [00:14:32]. Therefore, geographically proximate adversaries who can cross borders pose the severest threat to a state's vital interests (survival and economic prosperity) [00:14:43].
Statistical Evidence of Safety: Historical data on intra-regional war shows the US is orders of magnitude less likely to fight a war or suffer battle deaths in its home region compared to all other great powers in the modern era [00:15:28].
The Zero-Sum Power Dynamic: If a second state achieves regional hegemony (e.g., China dominating East Asia), both powers now have abundant military and economic resources freed from local competition [00:20:13].
Incentives for Interference: Each hegemon possesses a powerful structural incentive to undermine the other's regional dominance by actively reintroducing military competition into their peer's backyard [00:23:08]. Doing so ties down the competitor's resources and prevents them from projecting power globally.
Mechanisms of Disruption: A distant power can reintroduce these proximate threats by deploying military forces to a local state in the peer's region, grooming a local state as a direct military challenger, or sponsoring sub-state insurgent forces [00:16:42].
The Inevitability of Security Competition: Even if one hegemon desires peace, the structural reality and anarchy of international relations prevent them from credibly committing to not threatening the other in the future [00:29:50]. This lack of trust guarantees an intense, potentially existential security competition [00:23:24].
Historical Precedents and Near-Hegemons [00:24:32]
Imperial Germany (WWI): Imperial Germany came closest to achieving European hegemony [00:24:32]. Anticipating future US intervention, Germany plotted incursions in the Western Hemisphere—such as baiting the US into a war with Mexico and expanding influence in Haiti and the Dominican Republic—to tie down US resources [00:25:46]. The US responded preemptively by invading Haiti (1915) and the Dominican Republic (1916) [00:25:56].
Nazi Germany (WWII): Adolf Hitler explicitly recognized that the US could not be trusted to respect German dominance in Europe in the long term, citing the fear that the US would finish the "European Monroe Doctrine" [00:30:57]. Consequently, Nazi Germany planned initiatives in the Western Hemisphere to counter this looming trans-Atlantic threat [00:29:13].
The Soviet Union (Cold War): Mearsheimer strictly clarifies that the Soviet Union was not a regional hegemon due to the permanent presence of US, British, French, and West German forces actively contesting Europe [01:11:04]. However, Soviet actions (like placing missiles in Cuba and attempting to build a naval base at Cienfuegos) demonstrate the existential threat posed when a great power is free to roam and establish a foothold in America's home region [00:51:06].
The Rising Chinese Threat: China is significantly closer to achieving regional hegemony today than a decade ago, and its progress is currently being checked primarily by US forward-deployed presence [00:37:46]. The vital mission to prevent Chinese hegemony in East Asia merits a sharp departure from policies of academic restraint [00:37:37].
The Necessary US Response: Mearsheimer argues the US must focus strictly on containing China by building a regional balancing coalition, explicitly rejecting highly aggressive "roll back" strategies that risk hot conflict [00:47:40].
Distractions, Errors, and Depleted Munitions: Mearsheimer heavily criticizes US involvement in the Middle East (e.g., Iran conflicts) and the unnecessary antagonization of Russia, which distract critical resources away from the primary threat of China [00:38:11]. He warns that the US is expending "boutique weapons" in the Middle East at an unsustainable rate, risking severe munitions shortages in a hypothetical kinetic war with China [01:00:56].
Misguided Ideological Interventions: Mearsheimer views the Trump administration's aggressive focus on overthrowing Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela and maintaining hostility toward Cuba as a counterproductive distraction rooted in an "allergy to left-wing regimes" rather than genuine strategic necessity, noting the Western Hemisphere is fundamentally secure [01:20:01].
China's Power Building Playbook: China's latent power is derived from possessing roughly four times the population of the US combined with massive, heavily integrated economic wealth [01:17:21]. Furthermore, China is aggressively developing a blue-water navy and global economic presence through the Belt and Road Initiative to protect its interests worldwide, perfectly imitating the historical playbook of the United States [01:31:37].
The Reference Vault
4. Data & Figures
Data Point
Value
Context
Timestamp
Memo Publication Date
Jan-93
Lawrence Eagleburger's parting memo to Warren Christopher outlining vital US interests in preventing domination of key global regions.
Number of realist experts on US grand strategy brought together at the Texas A&M Albritton Center. All but Mearsheimer and Byun viewed a peer hegemon as unthreatening or moderately threatening.
Regional Hegemony Definition: A structural framework defining a state that is so militarily dominant in a core region that it can credibly defeat any combination of local states in a conventional war, without outside help. Achieving this affords massive security benefits by permanently removing proximate military threats. [00:13:16]
The Three Core Regions of Eurasia: Geopolitical theory identifies Europe, East Asia, and the Persian Gulf (Middle East) as the only critical regions outside the Western Hemisphere that possess the required wealth, industrial base, and population to support a potential rival hegemon. [00:13:08]
The Stopping Power of Water: A grand strategy concept arguing that oceans make large-scale conventional invasions extremely difficult, suggesting that distant regional hegemons are inherently secure from each other. Mearsheimer and Byun argue this theory fails to account for subversion, alliance grooming, and intense security competition. [00:04:03]
Offshore Balancing: A grand strategy advocating that the US should remain outside core regions in peacetime and only intervene militarily with ground forces if a local power actively threatens to achieve regional hegemony. Mearsheimer rejects applying this to China today, arguing the US must actively balance them in real-time. [00:40:37]
Latent Power vs. Military Power: Mearsheimer's framework for measuring a state's true underlying power. It dictates that military power is not generated in a vacuum; it is explicitly a function of population size multiplied by economic wealth. Teaching an adversary with 4x your population to become wealthy guarantees a massive future military threat. [01:16:31]
6. Anecdotes
The American Civil War and European Exploitation: Byun uses the US Civil War to vividly illustrate how a distracted regional power invites immediate foreign intervention. While the US was tearing itself apart, Britain supported the Confederacy and France established a puppet regime in Mexico. The US was only able to oust France after the war ended, aided by France's sudden distraction by the rise of Prussia in Europe. [00:21:16]
Imperial Germany Baiting Mexico: Byun details how Imperial Germany, lacking the raw power to dominate Europe outright, actively attempted to bait the US into a border war with Mexico (and expand influence in the Caribbean). The explicit goal was not to conquer the US, but to tie down American military resources to prevent them from interfering in the European theater. [00:25:46]
The British Empire's Failure to Stop America: Mearsheimer explains how the British Empire accurately recognized the US as a rising regional hegemon in the 19th century and actively attempted to prevent it—even hoping for a Confederate victory to permanently divide North America. Ironically, Britain's failure to stop the US resulted in America growing so powerful it saved Britain from destruction in both WWI and WWII. [01:03:04]
The Cuban Missile Crisis as a Vulnerability Warning: Mearsheimer uses the Cuban Missile Crisis to illustrate the extreme existential danger of a distant power (even a non-hegemon like the USSR) establishing a military foothold in the US's backyard. He uses this to reinforce the absolute necessity of preventing China from gaining the "freedom to roam" and executing similar maneuvers in the Western Hemisphere. [00:51:06]
7. References & Recommendations
Books
Forthcoming Yale University Press Book: By John Mearsheimer and Joshua Byun, detailing the theory of peer regional hegemons. [00:01:15]
The Danger of Dreams by Nancy Mitchell: Historian's book arguing US fears of German policy in Latin America prior to WWI were exaggerated because Germany was permanently tied down by European rivals. [00:27:51]
Charles Glaser's 2023 Book: Cited as an example of modern neo-isolationist thought, arguing China's rise actually strengthens the case for ending US security commitments in East Asia. [00:10:35]
People (Theorists, Historians, and Leaders)
Lawrence Eagleburger: Outgoing US Secretary of State (1993) who emphasized the vital strategic interest in preventing a Eurasian hegemony. [00:02:11]
Christopher Layne: IR scholar cited as a proponent of restraint, arguing the historical fear of a Eurasian hegemon is an exaggerated artifact of the pre-nuclear era. [00:03:30]
John Schuessler: IR scholar cited for relying on the "stopping power of water" to question why an incumbent hegemon should fear a distant peer. [00:03:54]
Robert Art: Brandeis professor cited for a 2005 article arguing via counterfactual analysis that WWII intervention wasn't strictly necessary for bare-minimum US survival. [00:09:37]
Samuel Flagg Bemis: Diplomatic historian cited for inductively supporting the massive security benefits of US regional hegemony based on the history of the republic. [00:08:41]
Nicholas Spykman: Geopolitical thinker who argued forcefully for US intervention in WWII to prevent a dual Nazi/Japanese global hegemony. [00:08:55]
Melissa Lee: UPenn scholar cited for research proving that foreign subversion and insurgent sponsorship is heavily conditioned by geographical proximity. [00:15:58]
Thomas Corwin: US Ambassador to Mexico during the Civil War, who noted Europe was eager to see the US "humbled" and distracted. [00:21:45]
Theobald von Bethmann Hollweg: German Chancellor during WWI, cited for his vision to unify Europe's economic strength to restrict US market access. [00:27:15]
Admiral Paul von Hintze: Imperial German Ambassador to Mexico before WWI, noted that European powers were too occupied with local problems to effectively break US hegemony in Latin America. [00:28:47]
Adolf Hitler: Dictator of Nazi Germany, cited for his strategic understanding that a US "European Monroe Doctrine" would constantly threaten German continental dominance. [00:30:44]
Xi Jinping: Leader of China. Mearsheimer argues Xi's most logical, realist strategy is to seek total regional hegemony and forcefully push the US beyond the second island chain. [00:56:07]
Geopolitical Institutions & Concepts
Texas A&M Albritton Center for Grand Strategy: Hosted a 2024 workshop revealing the academic shift toward viewing a peer hegemon as "not threatening" or "moderately threatening." [00:04:32]
Monroe Doctrine: The foundational 1823 US policy declaring the Western Hemisphere off-limits to European colonization, acting as the bedrock for US regional hegemony. [00:30:57]
Belt and Road Initiative: China's massive global infrastructure development strategy, cited as direct evidence of China building the economic and logistical framework for global power projection. [01:30:55]
Wehrmacht vs. Red Army: Mearsheimer uses the WWII Eastern Front clash between the German Wehrmacht and Soviet Red Army to dismantle the myth that authoritarian armies are inherently incompetent compared to democratic ones. [01:34:18]
8. The Bottomline (by AI)
The strategic imperative for the United States is to maintain its status as the world's sole regional hegemon by actively preventing China from achieving a mirrored dominance in East Asia. If China secures its region, structural realism dictates it will inevitably project power globally, weaponizing economic and military assets to establish footholds in the Western Hemisphere and spark an existential security competition. To safeguard its vital interests, Washington must abandon academic theories of "restraint," halt the unsustainable expenditure of munitions and strategic attention in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, and ruthlessly prioritize a defensive containment coalition against China in the Indo-Pacific.
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US Preemptive Invasions
1915, 1916
US invasions of Haiti (1915) and Dominican Republic (1916) driven primarily by fears of Imperial German influence.
Mearsheimer lists Imperial Germany, Imperial Japan, Nazi Germany, and the Soviet Union as the four potential global hegemons the US has historically checked.