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On this page

1. Executive Introduction & Context [00:00:00]

  • 1. Executive Introduction & Context [00:00:00]
  • 2. Market Valuation & Growth Projections [00:00:31]
  • 3. Current Market Penetration [00:00:46]
  • 4. The Five Strategic Drivers of Adoption [00:01:09]
  • 5. Macroeconomic & Consumer Implications [00:03:09]

On this page

  • 1. Executive Introduction & Context [00:00:00]
  • 2. Market Valuation & Growth Projections [00:00:31]
  • 3. Current Market Penetration [00:00:46]
  • 4. The Five Strategic Drivers of Adoption [00:01:09]
  • 5. Macroeconomic & Consumer Implications [00:03:09]
Equity/April 20, 2026/2 min read/youtu.be

The Real Drivers of GLP-1 Growth | Thoughts on the Market | Morgan Stanley

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This video from Morgan Stanley’s Thoughts on the Market features Terrence Flynn, Head of US Pharma and Biotech Research, discussing the "GLP-1 unlock" and the factors driving the next phase of growth in obesity and diabetes medications.


1. Executive Introduction & Context [00:00:00]

  • Speaker: Terren Flynn, Morgan Stanley’s Head of US Pharma and Biotech Research [].

References

  1. Original source (youtu.be)

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Published
April 20, 2026
Read time
2 min read
Progress0%
00:00:00
  • Date & Location: Recorded Friday, April 17th, at 2 p.m. in New York [00:00:07].
  • Core Thesis: Innovation, policy, and patient demand are converging into a "GLP-1 unlock," signaling a shift from early adoption to a scalable, long-term structural shift in treating chronic disease [00:00:17].

  • 2. Market Valuation & Growth Projections [00:00:31]

    • Total Market Peak: Estimated to reach $190 billion across obesity and diabetes treatments [00:00:31].
    • Bull Case Scenario: Potential to reach $240 billion [00:03:06].
    • Eligible Population: Globally, there are approximately 1.3 billion people eligible for these therapies [00:02:50].
    • 2035 Adoption Targets: * Base case assumes 12% of the global eligible population will be treated by 2035 [00:02:58].
      • US penetration is expected to reach 30% by 2035 [00:03:02].

    3. Current Market Penetration [00:00:46]

    • Current Usage: Despite the hype, penetration is "relatively low" [00:00:46].
    • US Statistics: Only 6% of eligible obesity patients in the US currently use GLP-1s [00:00:54].
    • Global Statistics: Only 2% of eligible patients outside the US are currently using these therapies [00:00:58].

    4. The Five Strategic Drivers of Adoption [00:01:09]

    1. Shift to Oral Medications: Moving away from injectables is expanding the market; notably, just under 80% of oral GLP-1 users are new to the category [00:01:15].
    2. Medicare Expansion: A new US framework is opening access to millions of seniors, with out-of-pocket costs potentially landing around $50 per month [00:01:33].
    3. Cost Reductions & Insurance Coverage: * Average monthly out-of-pocket costs have already declined from $170 last year to $120 today [00:01:51].
      • Employer coverage is expected to rise from under 50% last year to 65% by 2027 [00:02:08].
    4. Global Expansion: While adoption outside the US is more price-sensitive, uptake is expected to accelerate in markets like China and Brazil as costs drop [00:02:12].
    5. Innovation Beyond Weight Loss: Clinical studies are expanding to cover cardiovascular disease, kidney disease, inflammation, and neurological disorders, significantly widening the addressable market [00:02:28].

    5. Macroeconomic & Consumer Implications [00:03:09]

    • Calorie Consumption: GLP-1 adoption is projected to reduce total US calorie consumption by 1.6% by 2035 [00:03:14].
    • Industry Ripple Effects: This modest percentage translates to large-scale implications for food retail, healthcare services, and general consumer behavior [00:03:24].
    • Conclusion: The "GLP-1 unlock" represents a long-term inflection point that will reshape multiple global markets [00:03:33].

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