"To ensure that America remains the world’s strongest, richest, most powerful, and most successful country for decades to come, our country needs a coherent, focused strategy for how we interact with the world." - United States National Security Strategy (Quoted in report) (Context: frames reverse perestroika as national-security-led economic strategy).
"The purpose of the American government is to secure the God-given natural rights of American citizens..." - United States National Security Strategy (Quoted in report) (Context: used to justify interventionist posture toward allies and norms).
"Capitalism with a national-security face" - Rabobank / report phrasing (Context: concise label for the proposed US economic statecraft / reverse perestroika).
"Gentlemen, comrades, do not be concerned about all you hear about Glasnost and Perestroika ... There will be no significant internal changes in the Soviet Union, other than for cosmetic purposes." - Mikhail Gorbachev (Context: Gorbachev on intent/limits of reforms; used to contrast with Trump’s approach).
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"What happened to the Soviet Union happened mainly for domestic reasons... That model turned out to be incapable of making structural changes." - Mikhail Gorbachev (Context: reflection on Soviet failure; used as historical warning).
"Maga has gone Maoist: corporate America reels as Trump turns interventionist." - Financial Times (quoted in report) (Context: critic’s catchphrase to illustrate corporate pushback against interventionist measures).
"American policy will be pro-worker, not merely pro-growth..." - United States National Security Strategy (Quoted in report) (Context: stated aim to prioritise domestic labour, affordability and reduce net migration).
"Dollar stablecoins are a US geopolitical weapon." - Rabobank / report claim (Context: describes stablecoins as a tool to recycle foreign FX into US Treasury financing and to reshape the global monetary architecture).
Executive Summary
The Rabobank report argues that the second Trump administration is enacting a deliberate, strategic reverse perestroika: a shift from the post-Cold War US model of financialisation and consumption toward state-guided capital investment, neomercantilism and military production.
Using a historical analogy to Gorbachev’s perestroika (1985–1991), the author maps the mechanics, risks and possible success pathways for this re-orientation — including Treasury dominance, dollar stablecoins, capital controls, a US-led investment bloc, and state stakes in key industries. The transition is likely to be inflationary and politically disruptive, with outcomes depending on coordination across fiscal, monetary, industrial and geopolitical levers.
If successful, it could fragment the open global economy into aligned economic blocs; if it fails, it risks institutional damage and economic pain analogous to the Soviet collapse and post-Soviet shock therapy.
Key Takeaways
Reverse Perestroika = intentional economic statecraft combining national security and economic strategy (a Treasury-centric, guided market model).
Dollar stablecoins are framed as a practical tool to recycle foreign FX into US Treasury funding and circumvent the Triffin Dilemma.
Large top-down capital allocation is expected: pledged FDI and corporate commitments could be directed into targeted productive sectors (but deliverability/time profile uncertain).
State-market fusion: the US is already taking stakes (e.g., Intel, US Steel, rare earths) and using the Pentagon’s Office of Strategic Capital to mobilise public-private finance.
Inflation & transitional pain are likely as consumption is re-priced and productive capacity is rebuilt; price controls, subsidies and guidance may be used to manage this.
Geopolitical re-sorting: the US aims for a “Warsaw Pact”-style bloc of ideologically aligned economies with preferential access and integrated supply chains.
Political risks are substantial: internal resistance from vested interests, midterms/2028 elections, allied pushback, and external escalation could derail or accelerate the strategy.
If coordinated and simultaneous, the approach could succeed relatively less painfully; if piecemeal, risk of a hard landing and institutional damage increases.
Detailed Summary by Topic
1) Historical analogy: Gorbachev vs Trump — Why the comparison matters
Main points & reasoning: The report frames Trump as an inverse Gorbachev: Gorbachev tried timid market liberalisation (perestroika/glasnost) moving a planned economy toward consumption and openness and failed; Trump is attempting the opposite — moving a market/financialised economy toward planned, capital-intensive, national-security led production.
Context & implications: History shows partial or poorly sequenced reforms can destabilise systems — the author warns the US needs coordinated fiscal, monetary, industrial and geopolitical changes or faces severe disruption.
2) Anatomy of the Soviet system & Gorbachev lessons (pages 2–4)
Main concepts: centrally planned features (Gosplan, Gossnab, Gosbank, multiple non-fungible rubles, soft budget constraints) produced early growth but structural stagnation, poor price signals and eventual collapse when shock reforms hit.
Reasoning applied to US: The author uses this to caution about sequencing and the risk of policy flip-flops, vested-interest backlash, and unintended socioeconomic collapse if reforms are mishandled.
3) The post-Cold War US baseline (Figure 5)
Main concepts: the US model has been financialised, Fed-centric, consumption-led, export-of-financial assets (USTs) and thus has weak long-term capital allocation for productive / military industry. Only ~20% of US bank loans go to commercial & industrial purposes (report figure).
Implications: This structural shape motivates the push to re-industrialise and reorient capital flows.
4) Reverse perestroika — components and instruments (pages 6–11)
Core elements explained:
Treasury-centric system / Fed subservience: fiscal dominance and aligning central bank policy to national strategy (Yield Curve Control, QE tailored to productive investment).
Neomercantilism: tariffs, export controls, and preference for allied trade to rebuild upstream-to-downstream supply chains.
Dollar stablecoins: mechanistic explanation (Figures 9–10) shows how stablecoin flows can convert foreign FX to US T-Bills and issue tokenized USD holdings — supporting Treasury finance without traditional external debt flows.
'Warsaw Pact' of allies: trade and security carrots/sticks to compel alignment; preferential tariffs for aligned states; exclusion/higher tariffs for non-aligned.
Capital controls / Reverse Marshall Plan: using pledged FDI ($7.7 trillion sovereign pledges + $4.8 trillion corporate pledges on paper) to channel investment into US productive sectors.
State stakes & Office of Strategic Capital: direct public investment (Pentagon office targeting $200 billion; state stakes in strategic firms, smelter JV example with 40% Pentagon stake).
Guided markets & price/regulatory interventions: capping buybacks/dividends in defence firms, price floors for rare earths, deregulation paired with active intervention.
Connection across ideas: monetary engineering + stablecoins + directed FDI + state stakes combine to create a financial and industrial scaffold to reindustrialise.
5) Social, labour & migration policy (page 11)
Main concepts: NSS rhetoric prioritises pro-worker policy, affordability, and reversing net migration to lift wages; small social safety net remains but policy emphasis shifts toward affordability and worker priorities.
Trade-offs: reversing migration can relieve wage pressure but carries political and economic costs.
6) Failure pathways & political economy risks (pages 11–13)
Risks outlined: initial consumer/producer inflation, policy “whack-a-mole” escalation, erosion of market efficiency, vested interest resistance, allied non-cooperation, electoral defeats, and geopolitical escalation. If reforms fail, a return to the prior status quo may be impossible — institutional trust and market structures may be permanently altered.
7) Success pathways — what success would require (page 12)
Simultaneous execution: de facto Fed alignment, effective dollar stablecoin system, allied bloc acceptance and coordinated supply-chain planning, state guidance of private capital, price/subsidy mix to contain inflation, and strategic stockpiling / tactical imports. If all are done coherently, the report argues reverse perestroika could succeed with a re-shaped, blocified global economy and pockets of robust growth.
Data & Figures
Data Point
Value
Context
Report date
22 January 2026
Rabobank publication date.
Pentagon proposed budget increase (2027)
$500 billion
Projected increase in US defence spending.
Golden Dome missile defence cost (projected)
$175 billion
Reported projected cost.
Office of Strategic Capital target
$200 billion
Pentagon strategic investment commitment into defence/innovation.
Pledged sovereign FDI from 2025 trade deals (on paper)
$7.7 trillion
Pledged commitments from trade partners (Figure 7).
Corporate pledges (on paper)
$4.8 trillion
Additional corporate investment pledges.
US bank loans for commercial & industrial purposes
~20%
Share of bank lending to productive sector (report figure).
(Figures sourced from the Rabobank report; see Figures 5, 7, 9–10 and associated text).
Stories & Anecdotes (memorable examples in the report)
Gorbachev’s reforms and Soviet collapse: the report recounts the path from Glasnost & Perestroika to the 1991 coup attempt, Yeltsin’s ascendancy, shock therapy, hyperinflation, rapid privatisation, rise of oligarchs, civil strife, life-expectancy decline and GDP per capita collapse. Lesson: sequencing and political constraints matter.
Trade & geopolitics headlines: early 2026 episodes — Venezuela, Iran, Greenland, Gaza — are cited to illustrate simultaneous geopolitical moves that accompany economic statecraft.
Stablecoin mechanics (Figures 9–10): diagrams show how foreign firms holding dollar stablecoins could effectively send FX to the US Treasury via stablecoin issuance and T-Bill purchases, allowing the US to finance deficits without increasing external debt holdings in the traditional way.
Pentagon / industry examples: state taking equity stakes in Intel, US Steel, rare-earth producers; Pentagon Office of Strategic Capital and smelter JV with a 40% Department of War stake (JPMorgan finance) as a concrete example of guided industrial policy.
Genesis Mission: cited as an example of national coordination to steer AI acceleration into strategic goals (parallels to DARPA).
References & Recommendations (as mentioned or used in the report)
United States National Security Strategy (NSS) — Quoted extensively (context: reframing economic security as national security).
Financial Times — cited phrase / coverage on corporate reaction: “Maga has gone Maoist.” (context: corporate pushback).
Macrobond / Maddison — GDP and historical data series used for USSR/Russia GDP per capita (Figure 4).
People referenced / useful follow-ups:
Mikhail Gorbachev — former Soviet leader; quoted on perestroika/glasnost. (Context: historical analogy).
Boris Yeltsin — mentioned as successor figure in post-Soviet transition.
Michael Every — Senior Global Strategist, Rabobank (author) — primary analyst voice.
Jan Lambregts and Rabobank research team contacts — listed in report (for domain expertise and follow-up).
Tools / platforms / mechanisms discussed (for research or monitoring):
dollar stablecoins (mechanism / geopolitical tool) — see Figures 9–10.
T-Bills / US Treasury (instrument used in stablecoin mechanism).
Bitcoin (described as possible neutral reserve for non-allies).
Office of Strategic Capital (Pentagon initiative to channel capital).
Speakers & Credentials (who produced / why it matters)
Michael Every — Senior Global Strategist, RaboResearch. Primary author and macro strategist; frames the argument and assembles evidence.
Jan Lambregts — Global Head, RaboResearch (document contact).
Rabobank Global Economics & Markets team — multiple named macro strategists, FX and credit leads included in report footer (useful for contacting experts and corroboration).
Quoted external voices:Gorbachev, NSS text and press (Financial Times) — used to provide historical and political texture.
Actionable Next Steps
Hedge for Structural Inflation: Investors should prepare for persistent inflation resulting from the "US" shift toward capital-intensive military production and tariffs.
Audit Supply Chain Alignment: Businesses must determine if their operations sit within the new "Warsaw Pact" (US-led bloc) to avoid being cut off from critical materials or facing "high tariffs".
Monitor Stablecoin Integration: Financial institutions should track "US" regulatory shifts toward dollar stablecoins, as they may become the primary vehicle for international trade and "T-Bill" funding.
Prepare for Fiscal Dominance: Adjust financial models to account for a "Treasury-centric" system where interest rates and liquidity are guided by national security priorities rather than traditional inflation targeting.
Jun 1, 2026
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NATO defence spending target
5% by 2035 (with 3.5% core military spending)
Burden-sharing target mentioned in report.
Gorbachev era male life expectancy (USSR → Russia)
64.9 (1987) → 57 (1995)
Life expectancy fall after Soviet collapse (context: costs of shock therapy).
Russian GDP per capita fall (post-USSR decade)
~66% collapse
"GDP per capita collapsed two thirds in a decade." (report summary)
Pentagon stake in JPMorgan-financed smelter JV
40%
Example of state-private stake in strategic processing capacity.