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The Tariff Outlook and Export Recovery

  • The Tariff Outlook and Export Recovery
  • India's Growth and Balance of Payments (BOP)
  • Global Industrial Cycle and Disinflation
  • Inflation and Nominal GDP Projections

On this page

  • The Tariff Outlook and Export Recovery
  • India's Growth and Balance of Payments (BOP)
  • Global Industrial Cycle and Disinflation
  • Inflation and Nominal GDP Projections
US / West/February 25, 2026/2 min read/youtu.be

Tariff Related Worry Is Out Of The Way; US, Europe, Asian Growth Inflecting: Morgan Stanley

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In this conversation, Chetan Ahya, Chief Asian Economist at Morgan Stanley, provides a deep dive into the shifting macroeconomic landscape for India and the broader Asian region.


The Tariff Outlook and Export Recovery

The US Supreme Court's decision to strike down high tariffs has introduced a much-needed sense of certainty [00:09].

  • Peak Tariffs: Ahya notes that tariffs have likely peaked, which is a significant relief for non-tech exports in Asia that had previously struggled under trade uncertainty [].

References

  1. Original source (youtu.be)

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Reading

Published
February 25, 2026
Read time
2 min read
Progress0%
01:58
  • Trade Deal Enforcement: Despite the legal ruling, the Trump administration retains the threat of a "complete embargo" to ensure countries abide by existing trade agreements [04:14]. However, Morgan Stanley views a break from these deals as unlikely due to the importance of long-term bilateral relationships.

  • India's Growth and Balance of Payments (BOP)

    Despite global headwinds, India's growth outlook remains secure, with Morgan Stanley maintaining a forecast of 7.6% for the current year [03:41].

    • BOP Surplus Returning: The weakness in the Rupee was previously driven by a growth slowdown and lower-than-expected corporate earnings. However, a transition back to a balance of payment surplus is expected as growth returns and trade deals are finalized [06:24].
    • High-Frequency Indicators: Strengthening domestic demand is evidenced by recent data, such as an 18% year-on-year growth in total vehicle sales during the first two weeks of February [06:10].
    • The AI/IT Services Transition: While there is concern about AI impacting job growth and IT exports, Ahya views this as a medium-term story (roughly two years out) rather than an immediate threat to the BOP [06:52].

    Global Industrial Cycle and Disinflation

    A key theme is the "inflection point" currently being observed in the global industrial cycle [11:26].

    • Regional Recovery: Industrial production is recovering across the US, Europe, and Asia (where it has hit a 42-month high).
    • The China Factor: China's Producer Price Index (PPI) deflation, which previously exerted downward pressure on Indian prices, is expected to ease as China aggressively slows new investments and improves capacity utilization [11:42].

    Inflation and Nominal GDP Projections

    The combination of recovering domestic demand and a shift in global trade dynamics is expected to lift India’s nominal GDP.

    • Nominal GDP Growth: Ahya projects that India's nominal GDP will return to the 10% to 10.5% range [12:04].
    • Inflation Dynamics: This recovery will be supported by a turn in the three factors that previously suppressed inflation: weak domestic demand, a global trade slowdown, and imported deflation from China [11:12].

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