UK fiscal risks and BoE outlook in focus | 24 Jul 2026 | MUFG EMEA
1. Executive Briefing (TL;DR)
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Top Key Takeaways:
- Middle East Escalation Drives Oil Above $100/bbl: 13 consecutive nights of US strikes on Iranian targets and Red Sea shipping attacks have drained inventory buffers, pushing Brent oil above $100/bbl and European natural gas to YTD highs [00:02:27].
- UK Inflation Rebound Spikes Autumn Forecast: Despite headline CPI falling to a multi-month low of 2.6%, rising energy costs will overshadow Prime Minister Andy Burnham’s domestic electricity VAT cut, pushing CPI back up to 3.5% by autumn [].
References
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