"Well it's the end of the world as they knew it but I don't think it means like a crippling belt tightening where suddenly we don't live well i think it means we live differently but perhaps better." - Michael Every [00:00:25]
"You've either got a White House team which just simply doesn't know what they're doing... or they do know what they're doing and they don't have a problem that Hormuz is closed." - Michael Every [00:08:27]
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"If the US does do a taco [Trump chickens out], it's actually the whole enchilada in that it's as damaging to the US's geostrategic position as the Suez crisis was for the UK and France back in 1956." - Michael Every [00:13:03]
"It's no longer about price it's about do you actually have any supply... what's the point in having a price if you don't have any bloody product? We're headed to that world." - Michael Every [00:39:24]
"Soft power doesn't matter as much as hard power. So if we were talking about two hard power blocks and one of them had marginally better soft power, great there's the winner. If you're talking about rival blocks which don't have hard power... it doesn't actually matter." - Michael Every [01:06:22]
"The dollar ultimately is backed by the US military... the US military is backed by US industry and US industry is killed by the US dollar." - Michael Every [00:57:21]
Speakers & Credentials
Nate Hagens: Host of The Great Simplification (TGS). A systems analyst, former Wall Street professional, and public educator focused on the intersections of energy, economy, environment, and human behavior.
Michael Every: Global Strategist at Rabobank (referred to as Rival Bank in the transcript). Every possesses over two decades of experience analyzing major financial developments, geopolitics, and macroeconomics. He has previously held director and senior economist roles at Silk Road Associates, Royal Bank of Canada, and Dun & Bradstreet.
1. Executive Summary
The Paradigm Shift in Global Energy Access: The ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz is not a temporary disruption but a long-term geopolitical realignment. Strategists anticipate it remaining closed for months, pushing the global economy toward a localized, physically constrained supply model [00:07:07].
The Incompatibility of Negotiation Frameworks: The United States is utilizing a transactional "Art of the Deal" framework, while Iran is operating under "Moqawama" (theological resistance). These mental models are completely incompatible, making a traditional diplomatic resolution highly unlikely [00:10:18].
Cascading Supply Chain Failures: The crisis extends far beyond crude oil; it threatens critical derivatives like bunker fuel, diesel, naphtha, sulfur, and helium. Without bunker fuel, global shipping halts, preventing even available goods (like gasoline or food) from moving from A to B [00:34:22].
The Transition to a "Soviet-Style" Command Economy: Western nations are sleepwalking toward a scenario where price discovery mechanisms break down. Financial markets will feature theoretical prices for assets and commodities that physically do not exist to purchase, mirroring the Soviet rationing experience [00:39:54].
The Fragmentation of the Super-Organism: The crisis will likely accelerate the bifurcation of the global economy into distinct, localized blocs—most notably the emergence of a "NAPA" (North American Petroleum Hub) replacing NAFTA, creating a highly resilient, isolated energy ecosystem in the Americas [00:51:39].
The End of the Triffin Dilemma: The legacy mechanism of US hegemony—exporting dollars, running trade deficits, and hollowing out domestic industry—is reaching its terminal phase. The US will likely pivot its strategy to use legacy financial power ("Fartcraft") to secure physical assets and transition to a modernized, military-industrial command economy ("World of Warcraft") [00:58:49].
[00:39:54] The Death of Price Discovery and the Soviet Market Model
[00:51:39] The Shift from NAFTA to NAPA (North American Petroleum)
[00:56:44] The Triffin Dilemma and the Pivot to Stablecoins
[01:06:09] Hard Power vs. Soft Power in a Fragmented World
[01:19:24] Personal Resilience and Actionable Macro Advice
3. Detailed Thematic Summary
The Strait of Hormuz: An Odyssey of Twisted Realities [00:03:00]
The current geopolitical landscape mirrors Homer's Odyssey. Just as Odysseus was polymetis (cunning) and polytropos (twisting and turning), the narratives surrounding the Strait of Hormuz are intentionally contradictory and nebulous [00:04:17].
Financial market algorithms are currently being "whipsawed" by bipolar headlines. Traditional analysts who lack regional or geopolitical expertise are attempting to trade based on headlines, applying rational market expectations to a highly irrational geopolitical theater [00:05:32].
The actual truth of who closed the strait is shrouded in plausible deniability. Iran claims the strait is open for those who cooperate, while the US sanctions anyone paying Iran's newly slashed transit fees. This mirrors the Odyssey where Odysseus blinds the Cyclops and claims his name is "Nobody," leaving the gods confused as to who committed the act [00:20:18].
Despite market optimism, Michael Every makes a definitive call that the strait will likely remain effectively closed for months, potentially stretching into September or beyond, as the core structural incentives for closure remain unresolved [00:07:07].
The Clash of Mental Models: The Art of the Deal vs. Theology [00:10:18]
The United States is operating under a traditional, transactional "Art of the Deal" framework—applying pressure to force logical economic concessions. However, they are negotiating against "Moqawama" (resistance), an absolute religious and theological refusal to surrender [00:10:44].
A direct parallel is seen in Gaza, where Hamas has been militarily decimated yet refuses to admit defeat, sitting in rubble rather than seeking reconstruction. Iran drinks from this exact same ideological well, meaning economic pain will not automatically translate to policy shifts [00:11:11].
If the US administration "chickens out" (referred to as a "taco"), it would not simply be a minor retreat. It would be "the whole enchilada"—a catastrophic blow to American geostrategic credibility on par with the 1956 Suez Crisis, which effectively ended the UK and France as supreme global powers [00:13:03].
The only litmus test proving pragmatic negotiation is possible would be Iran handing over its enriched uranium. Short of that, the conflict will persist until an external force (like NATO physically sweeping the strait) or a macroeconomic collapse forces intervention [00:13:40].
If the US withdraws or capitulates to Iran, it abandons Israel and the UAE. Unlike the US, which can retreat to the Western Hemisphere, Israel lives in the region and views the Iranian threat as fundamentally existential [00:16:09].
Historical analysis indicates that Israel does not require US permission or support to launch preemptive strikes when faced with existential threats. In the 1948 War of Independence, the US provided no help [00:16:25].
In the 1967 Six-Day War, the US explicitly warned Israel not to make a preemptive attack, stating they would be "on their own." Israel attacked anyway and won spectacularly [00:16:38].
Throughout the 1980s, Israel defied the US to strike nuclear programs in Iraq and Syria, accepting bad diplomatic relations for years in exchange for physical security [00:16:50]. Therefore, a US "taco" does not prevent war; it merely passes the buck to an unbound and isolated Israel.
Supply Chain Cascades and the Illusion of Prices [00:34:00]
The global economy is behaving like an unemployed person living extravagantly on credit, blissfully unaware that the job market has changed [00:19:10].
Mainstream headlines dangerously fixate purely on crude oil prices, ignoring the critical shortages of refined derivatives: bunker fuel, diesel, naphtha, fertilizer, bitumen, sulfur, and helium [00:38:11].
Without sulfur, production of essential metals like aluminum and copper halts. Without helium, the manufacturing of MRI scanners and microchips is physically impossible, regardless of how advanced a nation is [00:38:43].
The current system relies on abstract spreadsheets of CPI and GDP, completely decoupled from the physical reality of supply. We are migrating toward a Soviet-style supermarket paradox: "How much is the bread? Three rubles. Do you have any? No, but it's three rubles" [00:39:54].
The Great Game: China, Russia, and the Geopolitical Chessboard [00:30:00]
China's actions are highly opaque. They have drastically cut oil imports, running down massive, secret domestic inventories to avoid paying high import premiums [00:28:26]. By late summer, these inventories will likely deplete, aligning with a massive crisis catalyst in September [00:29:36].
China is playing both sides, reminiscent of Woody Allen's dictator character in Bananas who ordered half his troops to fight for one side and half for the other to ensure he was on the winning team [00:30:30].
The Hormuz closure is intertwined with the broader "Great Game," including the Russia-Ukraine war and East Asian tensions. China will not yield on Middle East leverage unless it extracts major concessions in East Asia and Ukraine. It is a massive game of Monopoly where entire board sets must be traded simultaneously [00:32:33].
NAPA, Fragmentation, and the End of Globalized Triffin Dynamics [00:51:39]
As globalization fragments, we will witness the shift from NAFTA (or USMCA) to NAPA—the North American Petroleum hub. A consolidated bloc of Canada, the US, Mexico, and potentially South America, operating as a self-sustaining, net-energy-exporting fortress [00:51:39].
The "Triffin Dilemma" (or Tindale Dilemma) fundamentally undercuts US hegemony. To maintain the dollar as the global reserve currency, the US must export dollars by running massive trade deficits, which de-industrializes the domestic economy. This paradox means the US dollar literally destroys the US industry that supports the US military, which in turn secures the rules-based order [00:56:44].
To break this cycle, the US is engaging in "Fartcraft" (financial illusion) to pivot to "World of Warcraft" (physical asset command). The US can hypothetically print dollars against an arbitrary domestic asset (like North Dakota land) to buy physical, geostrategic choke points (like Greenland) before the fiat system restructures [00:58:49].
The ultimate transition will likely involve the US demanding energy and resources be traded in US-backed "Stablecoins"—digital tokens backed by US debt, forcing global compliance while allowing the US to drastically lower domestic interest rates [01:01:06].
The Reference Vault
4. Data & Figures
Data Point
Value
Context
Timestamp
Middle East Wellbores
~30,000
Total estimated wellbores in the Middle East region.
The Triffin Dilemma outlines the terminal paradox of maintaining a global reserve currency. To provide the world with necessary liquidity, the sovereign issuer (the US) must continually run trade deficits, exchanging its fiat currency for foreign goods. Over decades, this financializes the US economy and destroys its domestic manufacturing base. Because the US dollar's dominance is ultimately backed by the US military, and the military requires robust domestic industry to function, the dollar fundamentally cannibalizes the very industrial base required to enforce its global hegemony. The US is now being forced to reverse this mechanism to survive.
"Fartcraft" to "World of Warcraft" Transition [00:58:49]
A strategic framework where a declining financial hegemon utilizes the remaining fumes of its fiat illusion ("Fartcraft") to rapidly acquire hard, physical assets and geostrategic leverage before the system resets. The concept suggests the US can exploit the financialized rules-based order one last time—such as leveraging heavily inflated paper assets on Wall Street to buy critical physical chokepoints, raw resources, or entire landmasses. This transitions the economy from a financialized bubble into a hyper-resilient, militarized command economy ("World of Warcraft").
Moqawama (Theological Resistance) vs. Transactional Leverage [00:10:44]
A negotiation framework highlighting the asymmetry between Western political strategies and Middle Eastern Islamist strategies. The West utilizes economic sanctions, blockades, and political pressure expecting a rational, transactional concession (The Art of the Deal). Conversely, entities like Iran and Hamas operate under Moqawama—a theological, ideological commitment to resistance where economic destruction, starvation, and infrastructural collapse are viewed as acceptable martyrdoms rather than failure states. This renders traditional Western economic statecraft completely ineffective.
The Soviet Supermarket Model (Breakdown of Price Discovery) [00:39:54]
As supply chains fragment and physical commodities become scarce, the capitalist mechanism of rationing via price discovery will fail. Instead of oil rising to a price that destroys demand, the market will resemble a Soviet economy: prices will be theoretically printed on screens, but the physical product will not exist for purchase. Economists relying on financial spreadsheets will be blinded, as tracking CPI and GDP becomes irrelevant when the constraint is absolute physical lack, not variable pricing.
Instead of defaulting to complete national autarky (where every nation isolates completely), the global system will shatter into regional blocs built on genuine David Ricardo-style comparative advantage. Instead of shipping capital to the cheapest labor market globally, nations will form trusted security perimeters (like the North American Petroleum Hub - NAPA). Within these secure blocs, trade imbalances will narrow, potentially ushering in an era of extreme prosperity for the domestic working class, as capital must be heavily reinvested into local, physical production rather than abstract global financialization.
Reverse Perestroika / The Gorbachev Analogy [00:39:32]
A framework used to describe the ongoing attempt to pivot the US economy away from a consumption-heavy, financialized system back toward a militarized production base. Much like Mikhail Gorbachev attempted Perestroika to reform the Soviet system, modern US leadership is attempting a "reverse Gorbachev"—trying to undo decades of hollow consumerism (symbolized by blue jeans and Coca-Cola) to rebuild raw industrial capacity.
A political model showing that in extreme macro environments, the traditional left-right spectrum collapses into state-centric pragmatism. The Overton Window hasn't just moved; it has ceased to exist as traditionally understood, evidenced by figures on the far left (Bernie Sanders) and the right (Donald Trump) simultaneously arriving at the conclusion that critical infrastructure (like AI) requires heavy state ownership.
6. Anecdotes
Odysseus and the Blinding of the Cyclops [00:20:18]
Michael Every utilizes the story of Homer's Odyssey to explain the plausible deniability occurring in the Strait of Hormuz. When Odysseus blinds the Cyclops, he tells the monster his name is "Nobody." When the Cyclops screams to the gods for help, yelling that "Nobody is hurting me," the gods ignore him. Similarly, Iran claims the strait is open, the US claims they have cleared a corridor, yet no ships are moving. Like Odysseus, state actors are engineering a devastating crisis while hiding behind cunning, labyrinthine narratives so that "Nobody" can be officially blamed or retaliated against.
To illustrate the cascading localized impacts of macro-energy shocks, Every shares a story from Thailand during a recent fuel panic. Large trucks laden with fresh strawberries from the north were unable to secure enough fuel to reach the wealthy consumer markets in Bangkok. Stranded on the highways, farmers were forced to dump and sell their entire harvest on the side of the road for pennies on the dollar. This highlights that food supply isn't just about growing crops; it is entirely dependent on the hyper-fragile logistical fuel chains required to distribute it.
Woody Allen's Bananas and Geopolitical Hedging [00:30:30]
To explain China's opaque and seemingly contradictory interventions in the Middle East, Every references Woody Allen's early film Bananas. In the film, an American commander intervening in a proxy war decides to hedge his bets by ordering half his soldiers to fight for the local dictator and the other half to fight for the rebels. Every notes this joke contains deep geopolitical truth: China is intentionally playing both sides of the US-Iran conflict, aiding Iranian missile tech while simultaneously manipulating global oil inventories to keep the West guessing, ensuring China emerges victorious regardless of who wins the kinetic conflict.
Every creates a hypothetical scenario to explain the US strategy of utilizing legacy financial power to secure a physical future. He envisions the US pointing to a barren tract of land in North Dakota, arbitrarily valuing it at $6 billion, taking it to Wall Street to leverage 10-to-1, and using the resulting $60 billion in fiat liquidity to outright purchase Greenland. While hyperbolic, the story perfectly encapsulates how a nation facing currency collapse can use the final throes of its financial wizardry to legally expropriate massive, resource-rich physical assets before the fiat system restructures.
7. References & Recommendations
People
Art Berman [01:13:36]: Highly respected energy expert and geologist; mentioned as a primary source for understanding physical energy reality over abstract economic modeling.
David Ricardo [00:49:50]: Economist cited for his theory of comparative advantage, which will replace the deeply flawed, financialized globalization of the past 45 years.
Craig Tindale [00:56:41]: A colleague who mathematically codified the Triffin Dilemma into the "Tindale Dilemma," proving the US dollar destroys the rules-based order.
John Maynard Keynes [00:59:04]: Historic economist referenced for his assertion that pure finance often operates as bubbles rather than productive liquidity.
Mikhail Gorbachev [00:39:32]: Former Soviet leader referenced in an analogy regarding a "reverse Perestroika" strategy currently brewing in the West.
Bernie Sanders [01:09:07]: Mentioned to illustrate how the Overton window has collapsed, as both he and Donald Trump are now proposing heavy state intervention in domains like AI.
Rory Johnston & Jeff Currie [00:23:45]: Fellow energy analysts referenced by Hagens to underscore the varying professional viewpoints regarding the permanent damage to oil infrastructure.
Isabella Kaminska [01:23:06]: Mutual colleague and thinker mentioned during the discussion of classical historical frameworks and cycles.
Books & Literature
The Odyssey by Homer [00:03:54]: Used as the central framing device for the entire crisis. The Strait of Hormuz is as complicated, twisting, and full of unreliable narrators as the epic poem.
The Histories by Polybius [01:23:14]: Mentioned as foundational reading for strategists to understand deep cyclical history, joining the dots between ancient statecraft and modern geopolitics.
Media & Pop Culture
Bananas (Woody Allen Film) [00:30:30]: Referenced to perfectly encapsulate the absurdity and ruthless pragmatism of hedging bets in proxy warfare, mapping directly to China's current strategy.
Gilligan's Island [00:24:43]: The classic "three-hour tour" is used to mock the US administration's hubris in believing a kinetic or economic intervention in the Middle East or Venezuela would be a swift "three-day war."
Historical Events & Concepts
1956 Suez Crisis [00:13:03]: Cited as the exact historical parallel for what will happen to US hegemony if it backs down (tacos) in the Hormuz standoff.
1948, 1967, and 1973 Arab-Israeli Wars [00:16:25]: Referenced to prove that Israel has a multi-decade track record of ignoring US directives and launching unilateral, preemptive strikes when facing existential annihilation.
Nordstream 2 Destruction [00:09:03]: Brought up as the modern paradigm shift proving that critical global infrastructure is now fair game for covert destruction; the "who" matters less than the fact that "someone will do it again."
Anacyclosis [01:23:06]: A cyclical theory of political evolution referenced as key reading for understanding systemic macro shifts.
Hudna [01:09:36]: An Arabic term meaning a long-term tactical truce. Every posits this as the only pragmatic pathway out of the crisis, provided Iran hands over its uranium as collateral.
Nash Equilibrium [01:13:19]: Brought up to push back against macroeconomic models that blindly assume rational actors will always find cooperative outcomes, failing to account for theological intractability.
Geopolitical Institutions
NAPA (North American Petroleum Hub) [00:51:39]: The proposed evolution of NAFTA/USMCA, transforming the Americas into a walled-garden, self-sustaining energy and manufacturing fortress.
IMEC (India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor) [00:26:30]: Discussed as the US's ultimate goal for integrating Middle Eastern energy into a Western logistics bloc, a plan that was violently derailed on October 7th.
Stablecoins [01:01:06]: Forecasted as the inevitable replacement for the Eurodollar system. The US will force fragmented global blocs to trade physical commodities using digital tokens backed by US debt, extending financial hegemony.
8. The Bottomline (by AI)
The era of seamless, price-driven globalization is effectively over, rapidly shifting toward a physically constrained, bloc-based command economy where securing hard assets supersedes financial engineering. Investors and institutions must immediately stop relying on legacy macroeconomic spreadsheets (CPI, GDP) and pivot to mapping deep physical supply chains—tracking where specific inputs like bunker fuel, sulfur, and naphtha are geographically sourced and defended. Watch for the aggressive formation of closed-loop alliances (like the NAPA bloc) and the weaponization of US stablecoins, as survival in the coming decade will depend entirely on localized resilience and access to real molecules, not just money.
Sep 3, 2026
WW3 DEBATE: “We’re On the Brink of Global Collapse” | 31 Aug 2026 | Modern Wisdom | Chris Williamson
"The internal divisions in the United States... those internal divisions have been building for the last 5 years, they've been normalizing political violence in the United States." Robert Pape 00:00:43 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4kliva…
Iranian Massacre (Jan)
30,000 - 35,000
The estimated number of Iranian citizens killed by their own government, proving the regime's ruthlessness.