Why Investor Positioning Matters More Than Ever (With Eric Liu) | 1 Oct 2026 | Charles Schwab

1. Executive Briefing (TL;DR)

• Yield Curve Flattening & Signal Nuance: The Treasury 2s10s yield curve sits at ~40 bps; while historical inversions precede recessions, the 2022–2024 prolonged inversion yielded a false positive, proving curve slope is a conditional indicator rather than an absolute rule [03:15].
• Methodology-Driven Disinflation: August Core PCE printed at 0.2% MoM (0.247% unrounded) with July revised down to 0.1%, bringing the 3-month annualized rate to ~2.0%. However, headline softness is partially driven by PCE methodology revisions rather than underlying fundamental cooling [].