Tuesday: Oil prices fall 6.5% on peace deal hopes

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Tuesday: Oil prices fall 6.5% on peace deal hopes | 5 in 5 with ANZ · Nuggets

Macro Modeling Deviations: Prior to the federal budget release, ANZ expected modest Australian dwelling price growth across this year and next [00:05:32]. Adam Boyton noted that long-run macroeconomic modeling suggests the budget's tax changes should strip roughly 2 percentage points off dwelling prices over a multi-year horizon (shifting a 3% growth trajectory down to 2% per year) [00:05:43].
Non-Linear Near-Term Transitions: Boyton heavily stressed that market transitions from policy changes are rarely smooth or perfectly linear [00:06:04]. The near term will trigger immediate behavioral responses from both buyers and sellers: sellers might withdraw properties from active listing, while buyers may exhibit near-term caution regarding negative gearing and capital gains tax (CGT) adjustments [00:06:16].
High-Frequency Supply Metrics: In the short run (e.g., over the next 6 months), price dynamics are dictated by transactional market supply—how many properties are actively listed for sale—rather than long-term physical dwelling stock [00:07:06]. ANZ will lean on high-frequency indicators like auction clearance rates and weekly timely listings data rather than static theoretical modeling to guide their property forecasts [00:06:44, 00:07:22].
Granular Composition Shifts: Impact variations from interest rate increases and specific budget changes will manifest primarily across different property types rather than simple geographic differences between capital cities [00:07:51, 00:08:08].
- Slowing Capitals: Sydney and Melbourne have already been slowing down due to heightened interest rate sensitivities, with Melbourne facing extra physical supply relative to population growth [00:07:38].
- Structural Divergence: One and two-bedroom apartments in heavily investor-dominated suburbs are projected to see much softer price outcomes due to shifting investor dynamics [00:08:16]. Conversely, freestanding dwellings in suburbs dominated by owner-occupiers seeking a principal place of residence will remain far more resilient [00:08:26]. This structural switching means aggregate average city property prices might appear unmoved, while underlying granular segments diverge significantly [].

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Tuesday: Oil prices fall 6.5% on peace deal hopes | 5 in 5 with ANZ

Speaker & Episode Overview

References

More nuggets

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Must Read Research: SpaceX; The Next AI Winners; Europe’s Earnings Momentum; Buy Value | 14 Jul 2026

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A Conversation with Kunal Sabnis, CFA | Nine Rivers Capital | 15 Jul 2026 | The Young Manager Series S01E03

Global Energy & Financial Markets Updates

Singapore’s Macroeconomic Surge

New Zealand Retail Pressures

Australia's Property Market & Federal Budget Impact