Takeaways: 2026 Thoma Bravo Annual Meeting

Holden Spaht's LinkedIn Post: "...We recognize of course that the conventional narrative around software in the last few months is nearly dystopian. But we believe that narrative is oversimplified, and the data tells us something quite different. Public SaaS companies have grown their top line at nearly three times the rate of non-tech S&P 500 companies, with gross margins and revenue durability that non-tech S&P 500 companies have not matched. Still, fundamentals and valuations — two vectors you’d expect to move together — are right now moving in opposite directions. Why?"

"Looking backwards a bit, year-over-year revenue growth for the public software space decelerated from 2022 to 2025, not because of AI but largely because interest rates spiked and software seats had been oversold. Meanwhile, the practice of stock-based compensation as a percentage of revenue was higher than revenue growth in certain software sectors, as noted in a Feb. 2026 report. The market was complacent about these factors until it wasn’t, and now we believe it’s overcorrecting, re-pricing on AI disruption fears that aren’t fully visible in actual software business performance. The moment creates a major buying opportunity for those disciplined enough to act on it."