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1. The Anatomy of a True Chokepoint

  • 1. The Anatomy of a True Chokepoint
  • 2. Strategic Objectives: Attrition vs. Coercion
  • 3. The "De-risking" Feedback Loop
  • 4. A Manual for the "G-2" Era

On this page

  • 1. The Anatomy of a True Chokepoint
  • 2. Strategic Objectives: Attrition vs. Coercion
  • 3. The "De-risking" Feedback Loop
  • 4. A Manual for the "G-2" Era
China/April 24, 2026/3 min read/foreignaffairs.com

How to Fight an Economic War: A Field Manual for a Ruptured World | Edward Fishman | May/June 2026 | Foreign Affairs

Source

"The first rule of economic warfare is simple: don’t weaponize false chokepoints."

" The United States ushered in the age of economic warfare by learning to weaponize chokepoints. Now, other countries have learned to do the same. Its advantages have eroded not only because others have built competing forms of leverage but also because Washington has too often used its own advantages carelessly."


Snippets

This article by Edward Fishman, written from the vantage point of 2026, outlines a new doctrine for geoeconomics. He argues that the era of "win-win" globalization has been replaced by a "ruptured world" where economic integration is weaponized. For the United States to maintain its lead, it must transition from a strategy of pure offense to one that balances leverage with defensive resilience and allied coordination.


1. The Anatomy of a True Chokepoint

Fishman defines a "chokepoint" not merely as an economic dependency, but as a strategic lever that meets three specific criteria:

References

  1. Original source (foreignaffairs.com)

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Published
April 24, 2026
Read time
3 min read
Progress0%
  • Concentrated Market Share: The controller must be an effective monopolist.
    • Successes: The U.S. Dollar (used in ~90% of foreign exchange) and Nvidia (85%+ of the AI chip market).
    • Failures: U.S. import tariffs, because the U.S. accounts for only 13% of global imports; targets can simply pivot to the other 87% of the world.
  • Lack of Short-term Substitutes: Goods that are capital-intensive or involve network effects.
    • Examples: Rare-earth mining (takes ~9 years to scale) vs. medical masks (which U.S. factories quadrupled in one year during 2020).
  • Asymmetric Pressure: The ability to harm a rival with minimal self-inflicted pain.
    • Example: China earns only $3.4 billion from rare-earth exports, but a 30% disruption to neodymium alone could cut U.S. GDP by 2.2% ($600 billion).

2. Strategic Objectives: Attrition vs. Coercion

Fishman notes that Washington often fails because it confuses its goals. He categorizes economic warfare into three tiers:

ObjectiveGoalStrategy
Stigmatization"Naming and shaming"Symbolic sanctions (often risk signaling a lack of resolve).
Attrition / DenialWeakening capabilitiesChoking off access to tech (e.g., AI chips) to degrade a rival's long-term power.
CoercionChanging behaviorUsing threats to deter (prevent an action) or compel (force a change).

He warns against incrementalism. Stepping up sanctions bit-by-bit allows targets to develop workarounds—like Russia’s new master’s degree in "sanctions evasion"—rendering the pressure plateaued rather than cumulative.


3. The "De-risking" Feedback Loop

Every time a chokepoint is used, its long-term power erodes. Fishman highlights the rise of parallel infrastructures designed to bypass U.S. reach:

  • China’s CIPS: Now includes 1,700 institutions across 120+ countries. While not a dollar replacement, it is a viable "insurance policy" for renminbi settlement.
  • The Digital Euro: Driven by a desire for "European sovereignty," the Euro remains the second most held reserve currency (20% vs. the Dollar's 57%).
  • Sovereign Tech Stacks: EU and other governments are funding domestic cloud services to reduce reliance on the U.S. "Big Four" (Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Oracle), who currently hold 70% of the global market.

4. A Manual for the "G-2" Era

Fishman concludes that the U.S. must adopt a "Pax Economica" based on coordinated fragmentation.

  • Defensive Resilience: The U.S. does not need to replace all Chinese imports, but must build "parallel supply chains" for critical minerals, pharmaceuticals, and batteries.
  • Legislative Guardrails: To prevent "capricious" use of sanctions that drives allies away, Fishman suggests creating "sanctions-free zones" for food, medicine, and treaty allies.
  • Tolerance for Pain: Economic war is a test of endurance. Washington’s "Achilles' heel" is its low tolerance for domestic economic pain (e.g., rising gas prices). Credible deterrence requires the political will to absorb these costs.

The alternative to this disciplined, allied-centric approach is a "fragmentation doom loop"—a chaotic, 1930s-style scramble that would leave the U.S. both less prosperous and more vulnerable.

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