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Apollo: Since the trade war began, the dollar has traded weaker than interest-rate differentials would have predicted, see chart. We expect to see convergence between FX and yield differentials as higher-for-longer rates in the US continue to attract investment from abroad and put upward pressure on the dollar.
*Note: Chart - 1-year yield differential = 1-year German government bill minus 1-year US T-bill. pp =…
Apollo: Ten trillion dollars in existing US government debt will need to be refinanced over the coming 12 months, see chart.
The budget deficit this year is about $2 trillion.
Total gross corporate bond issuance in 2026 is likely to be around $2 trillion because of increased supply from hyperscalers.
The incoming data has surprised significantly to the upside in recent weeks, but long rates have not moved higher, see chart.