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Sentiment Destruction, Not Demand Destruction
Apollo: Daily data are starting to show a significant deterioration in inflation expectations and consumer sentiment across the income distribution...
But there is a difference between what consumers are saying and what they are doing. The third, fourth and fifth charts show that weekly data on consumer spending remain strong, daily data on airline travel…
From 51 to 5: Mapping the U.S. Defense Industrial Base Consolidation. “Last Supper” (DoD consolidation push) in 1993 triggered rapid mergers across the defense industry. #J.P.Morgan
An Era of Global Rearmament and the U.S. Defense Industrial Base (Mar 2026) | J.P. Morgan
Apollo: For every five dollars the government receives in tax revenue, one dollar is spent on servicing the national debt, see chart.
AI Summary
Core thesis
Excerpt from the article.
The ongoing crisis can be viewed in two main ways: - Iran and its nuclear program as the central focus of the conflict. In this narrow lens, the war revolves primarily around containing or neutralizing Iran’s nuclear ambitions. If that’s the case, any impact is short-lived. Regardless, the US will benefit, even in the long term, from the closure of the Hormuz strait - *Iran as…
"The person who settles disputes is in charge. Not the person who starts them, not the person who wins them—the person who stops them." - Tucker Carlson [00:10:19]
"If we get deeply involved and deeply entangled with Iran, we are playing right into China's hands... China will simply just watch us bleed out economically as we bleed out on the…
"Our problem is we have no idea how to manage social media. That is the biggest problem in the United States today." - Stephen Kotkin [00:02:15]
"All successful societies are based on two things and two things only: competent and compassionate leadership, and social solidarity and trust." - Stephen Kotkin…
"there's nothing older than having a fight over a choke point like the straight of Hormuz..." - Niall Ferguson [00:03:33]
"if the Russians can build get this four million Shahid type drones in a year... who knows how this can develop nobody paid any attention" - Niall Ferguson…
"Iran has stated that its purpose its goal its strategy is to move oil to $200 a barrel which will have a really significant impact on the global economy because the entire global economy is based on access to cheap energy." - Professor [00:01:41]
"Remember that America is sitting on $39 trillion in debt and so the American economy is a Ponzi scheme that relies on…
"Beneath the surface, the sector moves have been brutal. We're seeing sharp rotations as investors rapidly have to reprice global risk." - Alex Olman [00:00:51]
"I can sell as much Nvidia as I want and I can buy very, very little of a lot of overseas companies. That liquidity mismatch works in both directions." - Alex Olman…
"In the councils of government, we must guard against the acquisition of unwarranted influence, whether sought or unsought, by the military-industrial complex." [01:53]
"The potential for the disastrous rise of misplaced power exists and will persist." [02:04]
Citation: Farewell address by President Dwight…
McKinsey: The growing US national debt threatens investor confidence
The federal debt today stands at $38 trillion, or 120 percent of GDP. This is higher than the 119 percent recorded in 1946 in the aftermath of World War II and barely less than the all-time high set in April 2020 at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. The United States has one of the highest national debt levels relative to GDP of major…
McKinsey: The United States has led the invention of new products, systems, and technologies over the past 250 years.
America’s ‘can-do’ spirit
From its inception to this day, the United States has had an entrepreneurial culture that has served as an ongoing foundation for competitiveness. By some accounts, entrepreneurs and inventors have been “cultural heroes” throughout US history. Entrepreneurship in…
- McKinsey: Reliable and affordable energy has been an enduring source of strategic advantage for the United States (Image). Access to plentiful energy has lowered input costs for businesses, improving productivity, enabling scale, and improving household well-being. - At independence, Americans consumed twice as much energy per person as Britons, given abundant firewood. As discussed, ready access to coal…
The rise of American competitiveness did not follow a linear or clear trajectory. Growth and innovation often happened in bursts, after moments of disruption and reinvention. Taking stock of the past 250 years of US economic history, four chapters emerge (Image). In each, the United States led global markets in at least one major area while working on new strains of innovation that planted the seeds for the…
Structural shifts, including the movement from a manufacturing-based to a services-based economy, have also led to a growing geographic dispersion of productivity levels, seen strikinglyacross major US cities (Exhibit 8).
Over the past several decades, some have seen relatively modest productivity growth, including those in the historical Rust Belt. On the other end of the spectrum, cities with deep knowledge…
Top 10 largest publicly traded firms in the world by market capitalization - US firms have led global rankings for more than a century. #McKinsey #Report
Top 100 public companies in the world by market capitalization, Dec 31, 2025 - US rms make up the majority of the world’s largest companies. #McKinsey #Report
Competitiveness indicators for G7 economies and Mainland China. #McKinsey #Report
By 1900, the United States had the world’s leading economy by size andindividual incomes. #McKinsey #Report
McKinsey: " The US is the most economically competitive country in the world today, but it has work to do. Despite accounting for just 4% of the world's population, the US produces 26% of GDP, 27% of research & development, and has 59 of the world's 100 most valuable firms. But the world is changing rapidly, and the next chapter holds immense challenges. How can the US best position itself to…
"If the Pacific Ocean had been land, we would have just kept going." — John Mearsheimer [00:07:31]
"The ideal situation for any country is to be a regional hegemon and there's only one regional hegemon in recorded history and that's the United States of America." - John Mearsheimer [00:08:38](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8r_NU-1oUUU&t=0h8m38s)…