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The results indicate that **positive oil price moves and data surprises significantly lift yields, higher policy uncertainty lowers them, and geopolitical shocks have no direct…
Bloomberg: Overseas investors bought a net US$1.55 trillion of long-term US financial assets in 2025, data released by the Treasury Department on Feb 18 showed. That compares with net purchases of US$1.18 trillion in 2024.
Of the total, US$658.5 billion went into equities and US$442.7 billion to Treasury notes and bonds.
The US dollar’s depreciation in 2025 might have even encouraged some…
The incoming data has surprised significantly to the upside in recent weeks, but long rates have not moved higher, see chart.
"…1980: Reagan/Thatcher/Volcker shocks, peak inflation (14.8% in Mar’80), peak government… secular leader was bonds (10-year Treasury yield fell 16% to 6% by 1985 - Chart 4)…"
Point - Belgium, Luxembourg , UK? - Thread by Brad Setser
