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Following is an excerpt from the substack. For the entire substack article visit - The Rebirth of Mining
Neither the macro regime nor industry fundamentals point to late-stage conditions. Seen through this lens, recent price moves in hard assets are not signs of excess. They are the opening act of a…
"What if our AI bullishness continues to be right...and what if that's actually bearish?" - Citrini & Alap Shah (Preface establishing the core thesis)
"A single GPU cluster in North Dakota generating the output previously attributed to 10,000 white-collar workers in midtown Manhattan is more economic pandemic than economic panacea." - Citrini (Describing the disconnect between AI productivity and…
""The global economy has entered a simultaneity trap."" - Craig Tindale (Describing the unprecedented convergence of energy transition, AI expansion, and military rearmament)
""Material denial is the point at which projects are not delayed by funding, regulation, or demand uncertainty, but are cancelled because the required physical inputs do not exist above ground in sufficient quantity."" -…
"The global industrial system is currently navigating a profound structural bifurcation, a phenomenon best described as the 'Return of Matter.'" - Craig Tindale (Context: Describing the end of the post-Cold War era of assumed "infinite materiality")
"**We have entered an era of complex constraints, where the physical availability of matter, not the availability of credit, sets the limit on national…
"In its various Quantitative Easing programs, the Fed bought long-term debt and gave out overnight debt (interest paying reserves) in return. That undoes some of the interest rate protection the Treasury bought.
The wife went to the bank, and got the 30 year fixed. The husband went back to the bank and said no, no, swap that back to half floating. Interest rates went up, the wife thought “how wise I was.” The…
2026’s SaaSacre feels more unsettling than prior pullbacks because there’s no obvious trigger to call a bottom..