Nuggets | Curated insights across markets, macros, AI, tech & geopolitics

Apollo: "The 10 biggest companies in the S&P 500 make up almost 40% of the index, and if Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX are added later this year, the concentration could approach 50%, see chart. The bottom line is that the S&P 500 basically doesn’t offer much diversification anymore."

Average Tenure of Companies in the S&P 500 Index: 15 Years | March 1, 2026 | The Daily Spark

We remain in the short-war camp on the outlook for the current conflict in the Middle East. The stock market seems to agree, since it barely budged today, though defense stocks rose significantly (chart).

Geopolitical crises tend to create buying opportunities in the stock market (chart). The problem is that everyone knows that, which diminishes the magnitude of opportunities!

US Equities – Long-term historical returns and volatilities | The Long-term Strategist Report (20 Feb 2026) | J.P Morgan

In exhibit 11, we update this analysis for the S&P 500, an index of the largest U.S. public companies, from 1988 to 2025. Consistent with past research, plausible reasons support some of the big moves, but others defy simple explanation (e.g., “Late rally on Wall Street as rebound in stocks defies latest economic news.”). This line of research makes clear that changes in asset prices have fundamental and…

Goldman: The weight of "AI exposed companies" has risen to 45% from 25% when ChatGPT was launched- Neil Sethi

The chart below shows consensus expectations for earnings for the Magnificent Seven and the S&P 493 since Liberation Day.

Earnings expectations for the Magnificent Seven have increased significantly. But expectations for earnings for the S&P 493 are basically unchanged.

**The bottom line is that the consensus does not expect AI to improve profitability for corporate America outside the tech…

Source: Haydn Belfield

Combined 2026 CapEx for the Big 4 (Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta) is projected to be $590 billion. ​

• "Two-Thirds of the Pentagon"

​Equivalent to ~65-70% of the US military budget ($850–$900bn)

​2. ~1.9% of US GDP ​Rivals peak spending of the Interstate Highway System (~1.8% GDP in the late 1950s)

Zerohedge: Once MSFT goes FCF < 0, the off-balance sheet tsunami will make Enron look like amateur hour | Source : Peter Berezin BCA

Corporate profit margins sit at 16%, the highest level in modern history.- Eric Basmajian