"You're saying that's not the right first step. The first step is to figure out who you need to impress." - David Rogier [00:00:06]

"Nobody's ever promoted anybody that they don't know." - Jeffrey Pfeffer [00:00:11]

"Screw this, I'm not going to play any office politics. My response is good…

"If you're a brand in a category which no one trusts, it doesn't matter what you do individually, you're kind of doomed unless you can solve the problem at a larger scale." - Rory Sutherland [00:00:32]

"A nudge was acceptable if it led to a new behavior which the person themselves didn't subsequently regret. And I notice behaviors which are almost…

"You could never explain to a French intellectual or a French politician what a fact checker was... if you had said to any of those French philosophers or politicians a theory checker will be in touch, they would have understood completely." - Adam Gopnik [00:01:34]

"Theory offered a kind of a shortcut. It said it's not important what you've read, it's…

"If you don't have the ability to think quantitatively to measure both the benefits and the costs of an action and which one is bigger, you can make some life choices that you'll regret later." - Terence Tao [00:02:35]

"We have the freedom to fail because failure is very cheap in mathematics." - Terence Tao…

• "The result of research should be recorded. Every pioneer should blaze his trail. That is all that I've tried to do. My only claim is that I have probably worked twice as long as anybody else in this field." - Claude Hopkins [00:00:27]

• "The man who does two or three times the work of others learns two or three times as much. He makes more mistakes…

• "How do we reconcile the basic physical structure of the universe with our conception of ourselves as conscious rational free agents?" - John Searle [00:01:06]

• "You've got to show how once you got protons you're going to get presidents, and once you've got electrons you're going to get elections." - John Searle…

"i used AI to make 15 billion dollars last year you did i did because the AI gave us a solution to the problem that no one had ever encountered before in the history of the world" - Michael Saylor [00:00:00]

"if what you're interested in is empowerment and fairness and equity for the small company the small family the small person the small…

"Imagine by 2100 the entire world from Burundi to India to Brazil to the United States, the minimum life we have is as good as it gets in Switzerland." - Sven Smit [00:03:18]

"Data is the best antidote to nostalgia because when you start looking at the facts... you realize actually looking back with rose-tinted spectacles is just wrong in many…

• "For most of history change moved slowly enough that one generation could pass its wisdom to the next with some confidence it would still apply... this is no longer true." - Host [00:00:15]

• "AI can generate belief, manufacture evidence, and forge intimacy at a scale no emperor, church, or party ever could." - Host…

• "Owners don't analyze so dispassionately owners don't look at everything in terms of charts and numbers they also look at things in terms of empathically how's the customer responding what's happening operationally like that moment of truth at the counter" - Pauline Brown [00:05:03]

• "The more senior I got the more indentured I became i didn't own my…

1. Executive Briefing (TL;DR)

• Ubiquitous Human Overconfidence in Quantitative Estimation: [00:00:52] Live estimation experiments reveal that ~99% of people exhibit systematic overconfidence, providing far too narrow confidence intervals (e.g., only 20% to 43% accuracy on 90% confidence intervals) when estimating unknown quantities. -…

• "There is a problem in marketing which we've tried to solve in the same two ways for 30 years with absolutely no success whatsoever... one of them is by becoming completely subordinate to the finance function and justifying every single thing we do in terms that the finance department determines themselves." - Rory Sutherland [00:00:15]

• "The problem we've got here…

Note: This episode was recorded on June 8, 2026.

"Figures get bandied about in the tens of billions, but I think ultimately the impact to GDP here will be in the order of $20 billion. Perhaps a little bit more." - Carlos Cordeiro [04:15]

"We're probably going to hit something close to $14 billion, but against that we have significant expenses. We…

1. Executive Briefing (TL;DR)

• The Core Thesis: The rapid expansion of the sports economy over the next decade is structurally tied to younger, digital-first demographics—with Latino fans acting as a primary growth catalyst. Maximizing this market potential requires a transition from broad demographic outreach to highly localized, authentic, and data-driven engagement campaigns coupled with representative…

"Not only are we alive in this universe, the universe is alive within us." - Neil deGrasse Tyson [14:43]

"Titles are lazy... once you hand a title to someone, that gives you license to not have to think anymore about who and what that person is." - Neil deGrasse Tyson [19:41]

"The center of the black hole is infinitely…

• "Even when the rules by which you're operating are very simple, the behavior of the system can be very complicated." - Stephen Wolfram [00:00:38]

• "Science isn't that powerful. Science is not able to make statements in many cases about what will happen. The only way to find out what will happen is basically just to run the system and see what…