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"The JGB 10-year, 20-year-forward rate tells a compelling story: A 373-basis-point climb since 2021 marks a structural shift in Japan’s bond market."
"Long-term buyers – insurers and pensions – have stepped back from their role as steady buyers in the super-long sector. In their place, short-term traders dominate, turning 30-year JGBs into tactical plays. The result? Heightened volatility, amplified by global…
🔗John Hardy's Between a Greenland rock and a JGB hard place.
"Below is what a devaluation of a country’s currency and its public debt (the same thing, often) look like. Consider your return as a US-based investor in that JGB over the last several years - falling from 95 to 38 and the currency falling by a third as well. After this latest…
The old bond market adage is that 'yields will keep rising until something breaks".
In 2022/23, rising U.S. yields "broke" several banks by March 2023 (Silicon Valley Bank). Japanese yields are now at a 27-year high and going vertical. When does something "break" in Japan?
Source - Jim Bianco